At the beginning of the new year, the hot spots in the A-share market switched and quietly formed a new style. Although the three major stock indexes closed negative on the weekly line, the Shanghai index fell below 3600 points, down 1.66%, and the Shenzhen Component Index and gem index fell 3.46% and 6.8% respectively, the market still showed many bright spots. The long silent real estate industry index rose suddenly and performed well, with a weekly increase of 4.46%. The indexes of household appliances, building decoration, petroleum and petrochemical industries, which followed closely, rose by more than 3% in the week. The four industry indexes bucked the market trend and gained much attention.
These four plates are characterized by low and undervalued values. Industry insiders interviewed said that under the background of "high-low switching" of market hot spots, the theme of "stable growth" will become a new mining object of funds. The three dimensions of capital source, local will and project reserve worried by the market have undergone marginal changes. Highway transportation, water conservancy projects, energy infrastructure and large consumption may also become the follow-up direction.
The real estate index rose 4.46% in the first week
the industry is expected to bottom up
According to the data, in the first week of 2022, from the performance of Shenwan level industry, the cumulative increase of the real estate industry index ranked first during the period, up to 4.46%, significantly outperforming the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index in the same period. 113 stocks in the industry outperformed the market during the period, accounting for nearly 90%. Specifically, Sundy Land Investment Co.Ltd(600077) (52.02%), Shenzhen Wongtee International Enterprise Co.Ltd(000056) (32.15%), Lander Sports Development Co.Ltd(000558) (23.78%), Cccg Real Estate Corporation Limited(000736) (23.60%), Macrolink Culturaltainment Development Co.Ltd(000620) (22.54%) and other five stocks increased by more than 22% during the period.
For the strong performance of the real estate industry, Yuan Huaming, general manager of Huahui Chuangfu investment, said in an interview with the Securities Daily that there was marginal easing in the real estate regulation policy at the end of last year and the beginning of this year, the liquidity problems of some real estate enterprises were gradually alleviated, and the overall credit risk of the real estate industry decreased. Recently, some funds have been transferred from the high valuation track plate to the undervalued value plate, which is objectively beneficial to the deeply adjusted real estate plate. These two factors have promoted the relatively outstanding performance of the real estate plate in the near future.
Tianfeng Securities Co.Ltd(601162) in its research report, it is pointed out that the core driving factor for the rise of the real estate industry is that the confirmation of the bottom of the industry policy determines the high winning rate of the policy game, and further highlights the price performance advantage of the sector under the rapid rotation of the market and risk aversion at the beginning of the year. In addition, the expected warming of policy adjustment also leads to the front of the game rhythm.
It is worth mentioning that with the activity of real estate stocks, financiers have also focused on some real estate stocks. As of January 6 this year, 27 real estate stocks have been added by financiers during the period. Among them, Hubei Fuxing Science And Technology Co.Ltd(000926) , China Merchants Property Operation & Service Co.Ltd(001914) , Beijing Urban Construction Investment & Development Co.Ltd(600266) , Greenland Holdings Corporation Limited(600606) , Shenzhen Sdg Service Co.Ltd(300917) , Shanghai Jinqiao Export Processing Zone Development Co.Ltd(600639) , Beijing North Star Company Limited(601588) and other 7 individual shares were financed during the period, and the net purchase amount of customers exceeded 11 million yuan.
For the future investment opportunities in the real estate industry, Huaxi Securities Co.Ltd(002926) said that at present, the valuation of the real estate sector is still relatively low, with strong performance certainty and high dividends, which deserves the attention of investors.
Yuan Huaming said that this year is a year of steady growth. It is possible to introduce more steady growth policies and measures in the first half of the year, which is objectively beneficial to the real estate industry greatly affected by regulatory policies. In addition, the current valuation of the real estate sector is still attractive, and the real estate sector may become one of the leading sectors in the first half of the year under the catalysis of favorable policies. From the inside of the plate, the real estate head enterprises with strong brand, relatively outstanding liquidity and risk control management ability deserve more attention from investors. With the gradual stabilization and recovery of the economy, there is the possibility of fine-tuning the policy tone including real estate in the middle of the year. The medium and long-term performance of the real estate sector needs to be evaluated and observed according to policy changes.
Shengang Securities said that since the capital risk of the real estate industry in this round mainly comes from the tightening of funds at the financing end, with the marginal easing of the policy, the shortage of funds in the industry will be alleviated, the emergence of the policy bottom will support the valuation of the sector, and the elasticity of the sector in the future comes from the operation end, based on the changes of past cycles. The real estate industry is expected to bottom up in mid-2022, and the market is expected to improve in advance.
At the same time, some institutions have expressed cautious investment views. Zhao Yuanyuan, investment director of Jianhong times, interviewed by the Securities Daily, said that the policy of "no speculation in housing and housing" means that the regulators\' tolerance for rising house prices is still limited. In the marginal improvement of stable volume and price increase, the real estate industry chain will benefit more than the real estate itself.
In the last 30 days, some institutions have expressed optimism about the stocks in the real estate industry. Specifically, 15 stocks have been given optimistic ratings such as "buy" or "overweight" by the institutions. Among them, three stocks such as Gemdale Corporation(600383) , Shanghai Wanye Enterprises Co.Ltd(600641) , China Merchants Property Operation & Service Co.Ltd(001914) have received optimistic ratings, ranking the top three times, 9 times, 8 times and 8 times respectively. Four stocks such as Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) , Lushang Health Industry Development Co.Ltd(600223) , China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) also received optimistic ratings for 5 times or more.
The home appliance index rose 4.19% in the first week
has certain valuation advantages
In the first week of the new year, the household appliances sector performed well, rising 4.19% as a whole, significantly outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index (down 1.66% this week), ranking second in the Shenwan industry. Among them, the cumulative increase during Kennede Electronics Mfg.Co.Ltd(002723) and Skyworth Digital Co.Ltd(000810) was more than 20%, 33.94% and 29.95% respectively. The cumulative weekly increase of four capital stocks such as Guangdong Xinbao Electrical Appliances Holdings Co.Ltd(002705) , Kingclean Electric Co.Ltd(603355) , Hisense Home Appliances Group Co.Ltd(000921) , Bear Electric Appliance Co.Ltd(002959) was also more than 10%.
In this regard, Yang Delong, chief economist of Qianhai open source fund, said in an interview with Securities Daily, "The strong performance of the home appliance sector in the first week of the new year is mainly supported by the bottom and fundamentals of the real estate policy. As a downstream industry of real estate, the slowdown of the real estate policy is expected to rebound the revenue and profits of the home appliance industry. From the valuation level, the current valuation of the industry is at a historically low level and has a certain valuation advantage."
Institutions generally believe that the household appliances sector currently has three advantages:
First, the industry profit margin has improved. Statistics show that among the 83 listed companies in the household electrical appliance industry, 56 companies achieved a year-on-year increase in net profit in the first three quarters of 2021, accounting for nearly 70%. According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, from January to October 2021, the retail sales of household appliances and audio-visual equipment amounted to 730.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.1%.
"The bottom of the industry has reached, and the recovery is expected." Zeng Chan, an industry strategy analyst, told reporters that consumer demand recovered slowly and the profit of the household appliance industry is expected to improve marginally.
Looking forward to 2022, China's consumer demand will recover slowly, and the slowdown in the growth of real estate completion will have a limited impact on the overall household appliances, but it may lead to pressure on the demand for kitchen electricity, and the overseas demand is still resilient. In terms of profitability, the marginal impact of raw materials, exchange rate, shipping and chips is weakened, and the improvement of profitability can be expected.
Guosen Securities Co.Ltd(002736) said that in 2021, the overall performance of the household appliance industry continued to be under pressure due to the weak consumption boom and high raw material prices in China. Around the fourth quarter of last year, the industry consumption began to recover slowly, the cost pressure was gradually relieved, the industry is expected to usher in a profit scissors gap, and the leading enterprises may usher in greater performance flexibility. In addition, China's demand for high-end and high-quality household appliances continues to increase, and the consumption upgrading is accelerated. The resulting high-end consumption and investment opportunities deserve attention.
Secondly, the industry valuation is low. Statistics show that as of January 7, the overall dynamic P / E ratio of the household appliances sector was 21.62 times, and the latest dynamic P / E ratio of 35 stocks was lower than this level, accounting for more than 40%. Among them, the latest dynamic P / E ratios of Guangdong Vanward New Electric Co.Ltd(002543) and Gree Electric Appliances Inc.Of Zhuhai(000651) are less than 10 times.
Guosen Securities Co.Ltd(002736) believes that with the arrival of the peak consumption season of the Spring Festival, the consumption of high-end and high-quality household appliances will effectively boost the overall demand for household appliances, while the impact of real estate on household appliance sales is limited, and household appliance consumption will be in a slow recovery channel. The boom of household appliance industry is gradually coming out of the trough, and the marginal improvement of fundamentals is expected to drive the valuation repair.
Third, increase the position of funds to the north. Statistics show that up to now, a total of 42 home appliance stocks have been held by northbound funds, and 10 stocks are favored by northbound funds in the first week of the new year. During the period of Haier Smart Home Co.Ltd(600690) , the cumulative number of northbound capital holdings ranked first, reaching 7.0991 million shares, and the number of northbound capital holdings of four stocks such as Shenzhen Mtc Co.Ltd(002429) , Vatti Corporation Limited(002035) , Zhejiang Meida Industrial Co.Ltd(002677) , Skyworth Digital Co.Ltd(000810) in the first week of the new year was also more than 1 million shares.
Yuan Huaming, general manager of Huahui Chuangfu investment, told reporters, "The household appliances sector is likely to become one of the leading sectors in the first half of this year: first, this year is a year of 'steady growth\', which requires the consumption force including household appliances, and the policy environment in the first half of this year will be more favorable for the household appliances sector; second, the overall performance of the household appliances sector was weak last year, but it also makes the current valuation of the household appliances sector attractive Relatively prominent, the technical panel block has the condition of stabilizing and rebounding; Finally, the marginal easing of real estate regulation this year is more favorable to the operation and sector performance of the downstream household appliance industry. The long-term performance largely depends on the trend of China's economic transformation and upgrading and the development of the capital market. "
The building decoration index rose 3.54% in the first week
policy support
According to the data of China stock market news choice, in the first week of 2022, the architectural decoration industry index rose by 3.54%, ranking the third in the year after real estate and household appliances in Shenwan industry.
From the performance of the secondary sector of the building decoration industry, the infrastructure sector performed the best, with an increase of 4.31% during the year, and the housing construction II and engineering consulting service II also increased by 4.30% and 4.06%. In terms of individual stocks, four stocks, including Huitong group (46.94%), Shanghai Geoharbour Construction Group Co.Ltd(605598) (29.06%), Shenzhen Grandland Group Co.Ltd(002482) (24.69%), Changjiang & Jinggong Steel Building(Group)Co.Ltd(600496) (21.60%), increased by more than 20%, which was very outstanding.
Liu Yan, chairman of anjue assets, told the Securities Daily, "The rise of the building decoration industry index is mainly supported by policies. In 2022, the countercyclical adjustment effect of fiscal policy will be increased and moderately advanced. Therefore, the market judges that the state's investment in infrastructure will be moderately advanced in 2022, and relevant bonds may be issued in advance. Superimposed on the new construction of major projects under the 14th five year plan, it also supports the rebound of infrastructure investment The growth rate of business investment may reach about 10%, and the growth rate of broad infrastructure investment in the whole year may reach 6%. "
In addition, good news spread frequently all over the country. Liu Yan said, "on January 4 and January 5 alone, several provinces and cities, including Shanghai, Zhejiang, Hebei, Hainan, Sichuan and Henan, held centralized commencement ceremonies for major projects. Multiple favorable policies and enhanced market certainty helped institutional funds concentrate on the infrastructure board, and the index advanced rapidly."
Capital is indeed an important driver of the rise in stock prices, and the architectural decoration industry has undoubtedly been the darling of capital since this year. According to the data of China stock market news choice, as of January 7 this year, 51 stocks in the building decoration industry showed a net inflow of main funds. Among them, the net capital inflow of the five stocks, including Power Construction Corporation Of China Ltd(Powerchina Ltd)(601669) (587246200 yuan), China State Construction Engineering Corporation Limited(601668) (38899800 yuan), China Railway Group Limited(601390) (363382400 yuan), China Energy Engineering Corporation Limited(601868) (28779400 yuan), Metallurgical Corporation Of China Ltd(601618) (225.4269 million yuan), exceeded 200 million yuan; The net capital inflow of the four stocks, including China Railway Construction Corporation Limited(601186) (181705400 yuan), China Communications Construction Company Limited(601800) (166587200 yuan), Changjiang & Jinggong Steel Building(Group)Co.Ltd(600496) (165.6694 million yuan), Shanghai Geoharbour Construction Group Co.Ltd(605598) (114.8449 million yuan), exceeded 100 million yuan.
In addition, the strength of the building decoration industry index also benefited from the continuous release of relevant statistics. Lang Cheng, general manager of the research department of Furong fund, said to the reporter of Securities Daily, "In December 2021, the Ministry of housing and urban rural development and the National Energy Administration issued the notice on carrying out the first batch of urban renewal pilot work and the letter on further standardizing the filing of photovoltaic power generation projects respectively The content of the notice is mainly focused on the construction field. Since October, the issuance of local bonds has improved significantly, and the special bonds have also begun to speed up. A number of data have formed a strong pull on the fundamentals of the building decoration plate. "
In the last 30 days, a total of 24 stocks in the building decoration industry have been given positive ratings such as "buy" or "overweight" by institutions, of which Anhui Honglu Steel Construction(Group) Co.Ltd(002541) and Power Construction Corporation Of China Ltd(Powerchina Ltd)(601669) have received positive ratings for 8 times and 6 times respectively; Sinoma International Engineering Co.Ltd(600970) and China Energy Engineering Corporation Limited(601868) received 5 and 3 positive ratings respectively; Five stocks including Sichuan Road & Bridge Co.Ltd(600039) received two optimistic ratings.
For the future investment opportunities of the architectural decoration sector. Guosheng Securities said that infrastructure is an important tool for counter cyclical regulation. Looking forward to 2022, the policy level may continue to make efforts in this field. The intensive issuance at the end of 2021 and the newly issued special bond funds in 2022 are expected to form a joint force to promote the improvement of infrastructure investment in the first half of 2022, and the valuation of building decoration sector is expected to continue to improve.
Zheshang Securities Co.Ltd(601878) believes that in 2022, the head concentration trend of the construction industry will be strengthened, the profitability and control ability will continue to improve, and the sector presents a good development pattern of "quantitative change drives qualitative change". It is suggested to focus on two sectors: first, optimize the central enterprises of new energy construction, and it is suggested to focus on China Energy Engineering Corporation Limited(601868) , Power Construction Corporation Of China Ltd(Powerchina Ltd)(601669) ; The second is the central enterprises that attach importance to traditional infrastructure. The strategic layout of China Railway Construction Corporation Limited(601186) , China Railway Group Limited(601390) , China Communications Construction Company Limited(601800) and other traditional buildings, central enterprises, is expected to benefit from the construction of urban agglomeration and urban internal infrastructure.
the petroleum and petrochemical index rose 3.13% in the first week
Three main lines recommended by institutions
The petroleum and petrochemical sector changed its low-key style on the first Monday of the year in the A-share market, ranking fourth in the list of Shenwan primary industries with a weekly increase of 3.13%, becoming the focus of investors.
In terms of market performance, among the 46 constituent stocks in the sector, a total of 37 stocks rose during the period, accounting for 80.43%. Among them, Sinopec Shandong Taishan Pectroleum Co.Ltd(000554) and Hunan Heshun Petroleum Co.Ltd(603353) led the increase, up 25.33% and 10.03% respectively. In addition, the cumulative increase in Shandong Polymer Biochemicals Co.Ltd(002476) , Geo-Jade Petroleum Corporation(600759) , Petrochina Company Limited(601857) , Sino Geophysical Co.Ltd(300191) , Jiangsu Eastern Shenghong Co.Ltd(000301) months was 6% or more.
It is noteworthy that on January 7, the share price of Petrochina Company Limited(601857) with a total market value of 964.5 billion yuan rose 5.82%, the largest one-day increase in three months.
It can be seen that at the beginning of the year, as the beginning of the market assessment cycle, investors' risk appetite is often very high. According to the reporter's combing, three positive factors have strengthened the oil and petrochemical sector and individual stock market.
First, policy factors are positive. Sinolink Securities Co.Ltd(600109) said that the central economic work conference held in Beijing from December 8 to December 10 last year pointed out that "new renewable energy and raw material energy consumption are not included in the total energy consumption control", which has opened up growth space for the petroleum and petrochemical industry. Relevant leading enterprises have made layout in new energy and new materials to promote the increase of product added value.
Taking China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation(600028) as an example, China's first 10000 ton photovoltaic green hydrogen demonstration project under construction is also the largest photovoltaic green hydrogen production project under construction in the world.
The industry said that under the "double carbon" goal, under the environment of long-term demand for many new energy materials and new material projects relying on oil and natural gas as raw materials, the performance of leading petrochemical enterprises has strong certainty and huge growth space.
Secondly, the valuation advantage is obvious. As of January 7, the overall valuation of the petroleum and petrochemical sector was 11.53 times, while the valuation of A-Shares reached 19 times.
According to Yang Delong, chief economist of Qianhai open source fund, at the time of the correction of the three major stock indexes of a shares, there has been a certain switch in the current market style, which has gradually changed from speculation and growth last year to allocation value, and valuation has become an important reference for investor allocation again.
Finally, outstanding performance. The net profit attributable to the parent company of the petroleum and petrochemical sector in the first three quarters of last year increased by 206% year-on-year, the highest growth rate in the same period in history (the available data is after 2002). The operating revenue increased by 31.18% year-on-year, a new high since 2011.
Yang Delong believes that 2021 is mainly the market of cyclical stocks, growth stocks and small cap stocks, while blue chips with excellent performance perform relatively poorly. In 2022, the market will change to the performance and valuation market, and the sectors with excellent performance and low valuation are expected to have restorative rising opportunities.
For investors, which main lines deserve special attention?
Chen Shuxian, an analyst at Cinda securities, said that during the "14th five year plan" period, the petrochemical industry will experience supply side structural reform. "Reducing oil and increasing chemical production", "import substitution" and "new energy and new materials" are the three main investment routes, including fine chemicals, high-end olefins and light hydrocarbon cracking, which are important directions for the evolution of petrochemical pattern in the future, Optimistic about undervalued leading enterprises and actively explore the growth space of new opportunities. Recommend relevant listed companies: Rongsheng Petro Chemical Co.Ltd(002493) , Hengli Petrochemical Co.Ltd(600346) , Jiangsu Eastern Shenghong Co.Ltd(000301) , Hengyi Petrochemical Co.Ltd(000703) , North Huajin Chemical Industries Co.Ltd(000059) , etc.
(source: Voice of Securities Daily)
