The 2.4 billion fund was not afraid of the sharp decline in the net value of the fund and went against the trend.
Recently, the performance of the new energy sector has been poor, and many heavily held new energy funds have experienced a sharp correction. From the perspective of ETFs, nine of the top 10 ETFs have been new energy theme funds since the beginning of the year, of which the photovoltaic ETF has the largest decline, with a cumulative decline of 10.4%. The 2.4 billion fund was not afraid of the sharp decline in the net value of the new energy fund, and went against the trend by subscribing to ETF. The subscription fund in ETF is usually called "smart money", and its capital flow plays a certain role in indicating market investment opportunities and market investment risks.
the new energy fund encountered a black door
In the first trading week after the beginning of the year in 2022, A-Shares fell for four consecutive times, of which the Shanghai index fell by 1.66%, the Shenzhen composite index fell by 3.46% and the gem index fell by 6.8% this week.
According to the data of , the indexes with the highest decline in A-Shares since the beginning of the year include aerospace equipment, photovoltaic inverter, power supply equipment, lithium extraction from Salt Lake, lithium mine, etc., most of which are the new energy segments with high growth last year. Among them, the photovoltaic inverter, power supply equipment and lithium mine index even erase the increase of nearly three months.
The fund also performed poorly, among which the new energy fund performed the worst, and it was frequently searched on social platforms, triggering heated discussions.
In terms of net fund value, many heavy position new energy funds have experienced a sharp correction. From the perspective of ETFs, nine of the top 10 ETFs have been new energy theme funds since the beginning of the year, of which the photovoltaic ETF has the largest decline, with a cumulative decline of 10.4%.
Some fund companies said that the recent sharp correction of new energy fund not only affected the overall style conversion of existing a shares, but also affected by bad factors in their own industry.
A-share level: 1) the market is worried about economic growth this year; 2) After the opening of the new year, the market style changed, the capital position was adjusted, and the new energy and other sectors with strong performance last year showed an obvious correction; 3) The Fed's expectation of raising interest rates suppressed A-share growth stocks.
Industry level: first, recent market rumors that local double carbon indicators will not be assessed this year, only growth will be assessed, and the promotion speed of photovoltaic installation may slow down; Second, the recent decline in subsidies for new energy vehicles, the market is worried about the decline in demand caused by the decline in subsidies. Under the background that the growth rate and penetration rate of new energy vehicles in 2021 are much higher than expected, there are different views on whether to maintain high growth in 2022.
Huatai Bairui Fund believes that this round of new energy adjustment is more caused by capital factors than fundamental reasons. At the beginning of the year, some funds readjusted the allocation direction out of stable growth expectations or game considerations. In addition, the lack of incremental funds led to the continuous adjustment of the sectors with large growth last year, including the new energy sector. Similar situations are common in previous years, and these funds are often sold for corresponding reasons.
over 2.4 billion "smart money" bottom reading new energy ETF
Some institutional funds were not afraid of the sharp decline in the net value of the new energy fund, went against the trend and made large subscription to ETF.
according to the statistics of Chinese reporters of securities companies, as of January 7, the shares of photovoltaic ETF, new energy ETF, battery ETF and lithium battery ETF among the ETFs with new energy theme have increased by more than 100 million this year, of which Huatai birui CSI photovoltaic industry ETF, as the largest new energy index fund of a shares, increased by 698 million during the year. Rough statistics show that the share of new energy ETFs increased by 1.7 billion during the year. Based on the average price of this week, a total of more than 2.4 billion yuan of funds net applied for new energy ETFs.
For the whole new energy sector, although the 2.4 billion yuan fund is a drop in the bucket, the significance of the wind vane it represents is noteworthy.
Huatai Securities Co.Ltd(601688) the metalworking team once pointed out that since ETF needs to apply for redemption with "package" stocks and the capital threshold is high, most investors who obtain ETF shares through the primary market are institutional investors or individual investors with high professional level. The subscription and redemption funds in ETF are usually called "smart money" together with northbound funds, Its capital flow plays a certain role in indicating market investment opportunities and market investment risks. An important reason for the change of ETF share is that bullish medium and long-term investors often redeem during the rise and subscribe during the fall of stock prices.
On the occasion of the adjustment of the new energy sector, Jinying national emerging, which ranked top last year, announced on January 6 that the restrictions on large subscription had been lifted, while the fund had been restricted for nearly two months. From the perspective of the fund's position, the subject matter of new energy accounts for a large proportion. Some market analysts pointed out that the recent adjustment of the new energy sector has been large, and some high-quality stocks have been wrongly killed. It does not rule out the possibility that fund managers can deploy high-quality companies with large growth space through the allocation of funds.
How do fund companies see the future performance of the new energy sector?
from the recent point of view of the institutions, they all agree that the long-term growth logic of new energy has not changed, but there are differences in short-term views.
Ping An Fund said that from the transaction level, a major reason for this plate adjustment is that the market attention and trading volume in the early stage are too concentrated on the new energy track, and the increase is significantly higher than the market. taking into account the rebalancing of style at the end of the year, the recent concentration of warehouses is reasonable. At the current time point, the photovoltaic industry chain, except silicon materials, is at the low level of historical profitability, and the downward fluctuation space is limited. The structural optimization will improve the comprehensive profitability, including n-type products, large-size proportion, overseas and energy storage proportion, double glass proportion, etc. In the new energy vehicle industry, it is expected that the leading production chain in the first quarter is the same as that in the fourth quarter of last year, the off-season is not light, the prosperity continues, and the decline of the index provides more space for future valuation switching.
According to Hang Seng Qianhai fund, in terms of valuation, new energy vehicles have experienced a sharp retreat in the early stage. At present, the P / E ratio of most leading midstream manufacturing companies of new energy vehicles in 2022 is concentrated between 25-40 times. Considering the average annual growth rate of the industry of 40% - 50%, the valuation of is reasonable, and continues to be optimistic about medium and long-term investment opportunities in the new energy vehicle industry chain, in addition, as long as China's "30 / 60" emission reduction target remains unchanged, the medium and long-term growth logic of photovoltaic remains unchanged, and the reasonable control of short-term investment rhythm is more conducive to the long-term and healthy development of the industry.
Liu Yang of Wanjia Fund said that the prosperity of the new energy sector is high, and high-quality stocks need to be carefully selected. The upstream lithium carbonate supply is tight, and the industry will have better investment opportunities. in the midstream, he said that he should pay more attention to the performance release of production expansion enterprises. We can be more optimistic about the downstream. The rise of domestic new energy vehicle brands brings opportunities. In addition, in 2022, under the guidance of the large scenery base and the policy of wind power to the countryside, the demand of the whole industry will be good, and the prosperity will be very high in the next few years. It is expected that the price of silicon material will decline greatly after June 2022, stimulating a significant increase in the installed capacity of the industry.
People in the fund industry who are not optimistic about the new energy sector in the short term said that the recent short-term and rapid correction of the new energy industry has been relatively sufficient, but it is still facing the pressure of valuation adjustment in 2022, and it is not ruled out that when the industry expands disorderly, it will face the pressure of weakening policy support, resulting in a wide range shock trend.
(source: China Securities Company)
