Although Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) (600030. SH), which has just disclosed the annual performance forecast, failed to stir up water with the financial report data, it made financial headlines due to the release of two “empty bullets”.
On January 7, Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) (600519. SH) shares continued to fall. After falling below 2000 yuan the previous trading day, the closing times was 1942 yuan / share, down 2.03%.
Some market participants said that the weak performance of Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) in recent two days has something to do with the “downward adjustment” of Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) . Before the opening on January 6, Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) released a research report that it lowered the forecast of net profit growth in Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) 2021 to 11.4%, and the original forecast growth rate was 13%. It is estimated that the earnings per share from 2021 to 2023 will be 41.42 yuan, 45.95 yuan and 50.87 yuan respectively, compared with 41.92 yuan, 46.56 yuan and 51.87 yuan originally predicted.
The previous day, the newly listed “futures leader” Yong\’an Futures (600927. SH) fell sharply at the opening, which was also interpreted by some people in the industry as related to the bearish Research Report “futures leader, but not cheap” released on Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) January 4. Yong\’an futures had to issue announcements in response to the “black door”.
Although from a rational point of view, the bearish Research Report of Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) is not the root cause of the decline of the above two stocks, as a “brother of securities companies”, the benchmarking effect can not be underestimated. The industry is more concerned about whether it will break the seller’s investment and research pattern of long-term group bullish since then.
net profit continues to grow in 2021
On the evening of January 4, Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) issued a pre increase announcement of 2021 annual performance. The content shows that it is expected that in 2021, Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) the net profit attributable to the shareholders of the parent company and the net profit attributable to the shareholders of the parent company after deducting non recurring profits and losses will not be lower than the level in the first three quarters of 2021, that is, not less than RMB 17.645 billion and RMB 17.531 billion respectively, an increase of not less than 18.41% and 17.66% respectively compared with the whole year of 2020.
The announcement also said that because the financial accounting of Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) 2021 has not been finally completed, the accurate amount of net profit for that year cannot be determined temporarily. A Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) salesman told the times weekly, “this performance forecast is mainly issued to cooperate with the company’s share allotment, and the specific data should be disclosed in the annual report period.”
On November 26, 2021, Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) allotment and public offering of securities were approved and approved by the CSRC. According to the relevant provisions of the CSRC on allotment and public offering, listed companies must meet the issuance conditions such as continuous profits in the last three fiscal years, so Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) announced the annual performance increase in advance.
From the statement that “the annual net profit is not lower than that in the first three quarters”, it is not difficult to find that Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) is likely to make a profit in the fourth quarter of 2021, at least there is no loss, and the position of “the first brother of securities companies” continues to be stable.
Previously, Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) analysts predicted in the research report that the net profit attributable to the parent company in Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) 2021 is expected to reach 20.666 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 38.68%, and the profitability is stable and upward.
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) claimed that all businesses of the company developed in a balanced and steady manner in 2021. According to the data of the third quarterly report, the net brokerage fee income in the first three quarters of 2021 was 10.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 28%; The net income from investment banking fees was 5.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24%; The net income from asset management business was 8.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 60%; The investment income was 16 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4%.
the overall performance of securities companies is improving
At the end of the year and the beginning of the year, the reporter of the times weekly found that many seller institutions have predicted the commercial performance of A-share bonds.
“In terms of brokerage business, the average daily trading volume of the two cities in 2021 exceeded the record high in 2015; in terms of investment banking, 524 companies had IPOs in 2021, with a financing scale of 543.773 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.17%.” Cinda securities recently predicted that the performance of securities business in 2021 will continue to grow with certainty under the high base in 2020. It is expected that the total revenue and net profit of the securities industry will achieve a year-on-year increase of 20%.
Guosen Securities Co.Ltd(002736) pointed out that under the neutral assumption, the diluted roe of listed securities companies is expected to be 9.5% in 2021, an increase of 1.6 percentage points over 2020, the highest in recent five years. As the institutionalization of A-Shares is still deepening, the comprehensive registration system is expected to be further promoted in 2022, and the roe of securities companies is expected to be further improved in 2022.
Everbright Securities Company Limited(601788) in the Research Report of investment strategy of securities companies in 2022: Mo Dao’s spring evening, warm wind is just the time, it is said that thanks to the continuous rise of net profit margin, the roe of securities companies has increased from 3.56% in 2018 to 7.82% in the first half of 2021 (annualized data). The roe of head securities companies is more than 10% on average. Looking forward to the improvement of capital market activity in the future, the performance of securities companies is expected to maintain a high growth. Under neutral assumptions, it is predicted that the operating revenue and net profit of the securities industry will achieve a positive growth of 8% – 12% in 2022, and the industry roe is expected to be more than 7.9%.
Orient Securities Company Limited(600958) (600958. SH) has also attracted the attention of many institutions. Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) said in the research report that the “buy” rating of Orient Securities Company Limited(600958) was maintained, and the target price was 18.78 yuan. It predicted that the net profit attributable to the parent company in Orient Securities Company Limited(600958) 2021 would be 5.691 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 109%; Huachuang securities gives a higher forecast. It is expected that the net profit attributable to the parent company in Orient Securities Company Limited(600958) 2021 will be 5.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 113%.
Huaxi Securities Co.Ltd(002926) analysts predict that the net profit attributable to the parent company of Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) (000776. SZ) in 2021 will be RMB 11.8 billion, a year-on-year increase of 17.55%; On January 5, Cinda securities gave a “buy” rating of Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) . “The new management team promoted internally in July 2021 is young and highly professional; big wealth has outstanding business advantages and contributes more than 50% of profits.”
bearish on the trend behind the Research Report
In just one week, Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) two research reports brushed the screen in the investment circle, mainly because their abnormal “bearish” superimposed the decline of relevant stock prices.
At the beginning of 2021, Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) adjusted the 1-year target price of Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) to 3000 yuan / share in the research report, maintaining the “buy” rating. At that time, the share price of Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) rose sharply and climbed to an all-time high, once exceeding 2600 yuan / share, but it was still far from the target price.
Relatively speaking, the share price of Yong’an futures has performed more violently. Since the new year, it has suddenly dropped the limit for two consecutive days. Looking for incentives, Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) the bearish Research Report, which happened to be released on January 3, naturally belongs to one of them. In fact, if we make a rational analysis, as a fund manager in Shanghai said to the reporter of the times weekly newspaper, Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) is not the root cause of the decline in the share price of Yong’an futures. The stock has risen for several days since it was listed. The maximum price has doubled from the issue price, with an increase of 132%. The dynamic P / E ratio is higher than that of the other two A-share futures companies, and the return of value is normal.
As of January 7, the dynamic P / E ratio of Yong’an futures was 39 times, Nanhua Futures Co.Ltd(603093) (603093. SH) was 35.8 times and Ruida Futures Co.Ltd(002961) (002961. SZ) was 20.8 times.
The “abnormality” of bearish Research Report stems from the practice of unilateral singing too much in the industry. It should have been a natural phenomenon that the seller’s research views diverged. However, due to the emergence of many “wonderful” research reports in recent years, the market has raised more and more questions about the innovation of standards.
Recently, Guosheng securities has just been punished for a “metaphysical Research Report” released last year. In October 2021, Guosen Securities Co.Ltd(002736) was also taken by Shenzhen Securities Regulatory Bureau to issue a warning letter because of the research report’s prediction of the performance of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) (300750. SZ) in 2060, saying that “some assumptions are not prudent enough and the analysis logic is not rigorous enough”.
” Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) ‘s two bearish research reports may start a new trend in Seller’s research in 2022. Under the background of transformation to wealth management, seller’s research no longer pays attention to the benefits of commission binding unilaterally, but pays more attention to customer service. There are expected to be more and more objective and rational views and suggestions, and naturally there will be more and more bearish research reports”, A chief analyst of a securities firm in Shanghai told the times weekly.
(source: times weekly)
