"In the future, about 25% of the vehicles in the streets and alleys of France will come from China." The judgment of French TV one on the future pattern of the French auto market is not only exciting, but also questionable.
As the second largest automobile producer in Europe, France is a mature automobile market full of Peugeot "lion claw" and Renault "diamond" logos. Why is China's "newcomer" so valued?
The judgment of the French media is not groundless. "After a series of continuous reports on Chinese vehicles, the French media were surprised at the rapid pace of electrification of Chinese vehicles. French consumers also gave high comments after accidentally contacting Chinese electric vehicles." As the general manager of SAIC, I am excited to increase my confidence in the international market.
France is only a microcosm of the European market. At present, China's electric vehicles have continuously entered the local market of traditional automobile powers such as France and Germany. According to the statistics of China Automobile Association, China's automobile exports in 2021 were about 2.015 million. Among them, the export sales volume of new energy vehicles is about 310000.
Even this year, when the epidemic has made a comeback, the high growth trend of automobile exports has not stopped. In February, China exported about 133000 passenger vehicles (including complete vehicles and CKD), an increase of 69% year-on-year; Among them, new energy vehicles account for 34% of the total exports.
This group of data was put more than ten years ago, which is difficult for many independent car enterprises to imagine. At that time, the independent car companies represented by brilliance and Jiangling tried to enter the European market for many times, all of which failed to pass the product collision detection. Now, with the success of new power brand electric vehicles in the European market, some people judge that China's automobile industry has entered a "new era of going to sea", and the new forces of car making plan longer-term goals with the attitude of going to sea as "adventurers".
However, it is not easy to play away. The long-term cross ocean transportation, low brand awareness and early market development have made the journey of Chinese cars to the sea full of challenges. Today, the severe epidemic, high shipping prices, the shortage of chips and the changes in the international political situation are like the wings of a butterfly, adding uncertainty and uncertainty to the car going to sea.
As Charles Dickens said in a tale of two cities, "this is the best time and the worst time." Overseas opportunities breed new possibilities and give birth to different global patterns; However, the export problem under the epidemic also hinders the pace of independent brands and challenges the resilience of overseas development. Standing at the crossroads of the times, can independent brands successfully knock on the door of "Europa" with the help of the wave of electric intelligence this time?
new forces of car making fight "Europa"
Compared with the mature European market, Southeast Asia is often the first stop for independent brands to go to sea.
"Europe is the birthplace of automobiles and the commanding height of brands. In the past 100 years, it has been difficult for foreign brands to enter the European automobile markets such as France and Germany. The Japanese brand represented by Toyota has been operating in the traditional European market for 50 years, but its market share has fluctuated between 5% and 10%." Yu de told the daily economic news.
The European market is difficult to enter and the threshold is high. There are a set of strict standards for vehicle safety, environmental protection and durability.
"Europe should not only examine the products, but also see whether the factory meets the EU requirements, whether the materials used have environmental protection marks, and whether some parts will bring pollution after disassembly." Fu Qiang, founder of Aichi automobile, believes that these requirements are actually hidden technical barriers.
"Knowing that there are tigers in the mountain, I prefer to travel in the tiger mountain." Interestingly, many new car building forces have set the European market, especially Norway, as the first stop at sea. For example, Weilai released the Norwegian strategy in 2021; The first batch of export vehicles of Xiaopeng automobile aimed at Norway; In February 2022, lantu automobile announced the launch of internationalization strategy to enter the European market; Aichi automobile has selected France, Germany, Switzerland, the Netherlands and other EU countries as the preferred exporting countries.
"The reason why Norway and other European markets have become the first stop for independent electric vehicle brands to go to sea is that they have the highest penetration rate of new energy vehicles in the world, perfect supporting infrastructure, great policy support and quite mature environmental protection ideas." The statement of lantu automobile staff may explain why the European market has become a "paradise" for electric vehicles.
According to the data, the sales volume of new vehicles in Norway in 2021 was about 176200, of which 65% were pure electric vehicles. The Norwegian Electric Vehicle Association predicts that in 2022, the sales of electric vehicles will account for 80% of the sales of the Norwegian automobile market. In terms of charging infrastructure, Norway, with a land area of only 385000 square kilometers, now has more than 1100 public fast charging stations and 7500 public ordinary charging stations. In terms of policy, the Norwegian government has launched a number of policies to support the transformation of electrification, such as the exemption of 25% value-added tax on electric vehicles and the provision of free municipal parking lots. Contrary to the welfare policies of electric vehicles, consumers need to pay a wide range of taxes with high tax rates if they buy fuel vehicles.
"Making money from carbon credits" has become another important reason to attract new forces of car making to "cross the ocean". The reporter learned from the overseas staff of an independent brand that a new energy vehicle can earn about 4000 euros in the European market. At present, the sales of new energy vehicles in the European market are profitable.
"Europe is a market driven by subsidies and carbon trading. The carbon credits market is perfect, and the market value of credits is very high. In 2021, the value of European carbon credits is equivalent to 10 times that of China." Fu Qiang said.
However, in the view of Anyu, who is responsible for the sea business of traditional car enterprises, the improvement of product power is the fundamental reason why independent brands can enter the European market. "In the past, the European market had a deep accumulation of fuel vehicle technology. Now, independent brands have natural advantages in the field of software and intelligence. We have more voice in the manufacturing of intelligent vehicles, which is an important competitiveness of products to the sea." Anyu believes that independent brands have ushered in the best window period for going to sea.
epidemic is hard to find the next cabin, which can't stop Chinese cars from conquering the ocean
However, just as the autonomous electric vehicle accelerated to the sea, the epidemic pressed the "deceleration key" for the car to go out. Especially under the recent epidemic in Shanghai, Haitong wharf, the country's largest automobile import and export port in Shanghai, will inevitably be affected.
"Recently, the heart has always tightened and the brain has been sounding alarms." Chen Sen is worried about the daily number of covid-19 positive cases in Shanghai. As a staff member of Haitong wharf, Chen Sen is responsible for ship coordination at the first comprehensive automobile service ro Ro Wharf with an annual throughput of more than 2 million vehicles in China. He is well aware that the number of confirmed cases directly affects the shipping situation.
"Rest for 3 days after 24 hours of continuous work", which is the work rhythm of Haitong wharf after the outbreak of the epidemic in Shanghai. According to Chen Sen, this can minimize the potential risks caused by personnel contact.
The front-line staff of Haitong wharf launched the "special shift management" system for closed-loop management last year.
However, the uncertainty brought by the epidemic to shipping is not limited to the wharf.
"In the past, the round trip of the South American route was usually a little more than two months. But once our ship waited at the dock for 30 days and couldn't reach the shore." Xin Jianmin, deputy general manager of SAIC Anji Logistics Co., Ltd., told reporters that under the epidemic, the shipping cycle has become uncontrollable and longer.
The number of on-the-job employees has always fluctuated, and the shortage of manpower has become the norm. "The goods that could be unloaded in one day in the past now take at least 3-4 days. We have a rough calculation that the long waiting time will cause an additional 17% waste of container ships (transport capacity). The logistics cost will become higher and the cost of cars going to sea will also increase." Xin Jianmin said.
According to public data, in 2021, the average value of China's export container freight rate composite index (CCFI) was 261554 points, with a year-on-year increase of 165.69%.
According to freightos, a logistics platform, the cost of shipping a 40 foot container to the west coast of the United States rose 16 times during the epidemic. Ningbo Shipping Exchange said that from the perspective of shipping demand and capacity supply, it is expected that the overall freight rate will remain high in 2022, but there is a great possibility of year-on-year decline in the second half of 2022. Huachuang securities also expects that the spot freight rate may remain high before the third quarter of 2022, and the effective supply loss may still exceed 10% in 2022. "The surge in shipping costs is a huge challenge for car makers like us who are new and innovative forces. One of our important tasks is to find the best solution between delivery time and company cost control." Lin Jia, a staff member related to overseas business of Aichi automobile, said.
The high trans ocean freight is only one of the challenges. For the new forces of car making, it is often accompanied by the dilemma of "it is difficult for thousands of gold to buy a cabin".
Because the mainstream automobile enterprises with their own logistics companies usually give priority to ensuring their emergency overseas business. For example, Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) has Anji logistics, FAW Group has Changchun FAW international logistics, and Chang'an group has Chongqing Chang'an Minsheng logistics. For these logistics companies, the customer priority of the new power of car making is not the highest.
According to Lin Jia, the congestion of Suez Canal last year had a great impact on the cross ocean transportation of Aichi cars. "At that time, we had to reschedule the shipping of containers, which had already expired." Lin Jia said.
In addition, the new forces of car making will also choose to cooperate with third-party logistics companies when they go to sea, but third-party logistics companies also have many challenges under the epidemic. Cosco Shipping Holdings Co.Ltd(601919) ( Cosco Shipping Holdings Co.Ltd(601919) . SH), which is mainly engaged in container shipping business, said in the announcement that shipping was very tight last year: "in 2021, under the influence of multiple factors such as repeated epidemic, demand growth and limited supply, the global logistics supply chain continued to be challenged and impacted by complex situations such as port congestion, container shortage and inland transportation delay, and the relationship between supply and demand of container transportation continued to be tense."
"Cutting corners" has become a new strategy for the new forces of car making to go to sea.
"We keep a close eye on the shipping schedule and send out several cars as many seats as there are available. For example, if there are 10 seats available today, we will quickly communicate and send out 10 cars. Now it is difficult to define the batch of vehicles going to sea, because the vehicles are transported out separately." Lin Jia said.
it's not easy to play away from home, and independent car companies are breaking through the system construction
The epidemic is a stumbling block on the road to sea. The real difficulty in the export of independent brand cars lies in "it is not easy to play away", of which the first difficulty is the layout of channel network.
One video conference after another, market research and interview activities began from 7 a.m. to late at night, which was the day of Liu Xinyu, deputy general manager of SAIC International Europe. In August 2020, he and two other colleagues landed in France carrying backpacks and began to expand Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) 's overseas business from zero. "The difficulty of integrating into local culture" and "the dual pressure of sales promotion and system construction in the initial stage"... All made Liu Xinyu and his party feel challenges.
As a pioneer of traditional car enterprises, Liu Xinyu has Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) huge system support behind him, and the early development is still difficult. For the new car making forces established in recent years, going to sea is a blank paper, and the future is full of unknown. Moreover, unlike the first mock exam, the new sales channel of the new car force mostly adopts the direct sales mode. This mode also requires a lot of resources to invest in connecting users and improving services. As can be imagined, the first mock exam is not yet successful.
However, Weilai, which has always attached importance to service, still adopts the direct marketing method in its overseas layout. First, it invested a lot of money to open the first overseas Weilai center NiO house in karjohn street, Oslo, the capital of Norway, and officially launched the first battery replacement power station in Norway. Weilai said that all the services that Chinese users can enjoy, including energy supplement, service and after-sales system, are also enjoyed by Weilai car owners in Norway.
In addition to the direct sales mode, cooperation and authorization with local dealers and cooperation with car rental companies have also become the sales mode that more new forces of car making are trying. "As a start-up car enterprise, Aichi lacks the support of traditional dealer partners overseas, and it is difficult for us to build our own distribution network from scratch. Therefore, Aichi's sales model in Europe presents diversified forms, combines the innovative direct sales model with the traditional distribution model, and cooperates with local powerful partners to do a good job of sales localization experience according to local conditions." Lin Jia told reporters.
It is worth mentioning that Vemma and Aichi have also adopted the b-end sales model. For example, Uber has cooperated with Vemma to purchase Vemma Ex5 models and put them in more than a dozen European countries; Aichi automobile has also invested 500 Aichi U5 to the French market for car rental.
"In the past, the practice of mainstream car enterprises selling cars overseas was very simple. They usually found a general agent to help them sell, which belongs to the form of trade. Now the times have changed. If they want to sell good cars in the overseas market, they need to carry out system planning and build overseas teams. They also need to consider the finance, exchange rate, logistics and other issues of the supply chain, which belongs to the form of business." Anyu said.
Zhang Qi, who is also responsible for the overseas sales business of traditional car enterprises, also holds the same view. He believes that both traditional car companies and new forces of car making need to take root locally if they want to go out.
"Overseas consumers must feel that our brand is a part of their work and life, and they have reliable after-sales service when they buy a car. Therefore, after-sales accessories, after-sales service outlets and after-sales technical solutions should keep up. In fact, besides selling products, they still have to sell services. This requires car enterprises to have medium and long-term planning, not today or tomorrow." Zhang Qi said.
is the best time to go to sea? Challenges remain
Despite the tight trans ocean transportation capacity, soaring sea freight, huge market development challenges, difficult brand cultivation and many other factors, China's automobile export set a new record of "sailing to sea" in 2021. According to the statistics of China Automobile Association, China's automobile exports in 2021 were about 2.015 million. This is the first time that China's automobile export has exceeded 1 million and jumped to 2 million. Among them, the export of new energy vehicles was about 310000, a year-on-year increase of about 3 times.
Specifically, Aichi exported 1676 new energy vehicles in 2021, a year-on-year increase of 62.9%. So far, Aichi has exported 2783 cars to many countries in the European Union and the Middle East.
Meanwhile, Aichi automobile will launch a new model, Aichi U6, and it is expected that overseas sales will exceed five figures in 2022. Previously, Xiaopeng automobile also exported 100 Xiaopeng G3 to the European market.
"The achievements and enthusiasm of independent brands going to sea reflect the rise of China's automobile industry, which will gradually change the perception of Western consumers that Chinese brands are 'inferior in quality and low in price'. The new forces of car manufacturing going to sea will also trigger a series of benign competition, which is welcome." An industry expert concerned about cars going to sea said.
In Anyu's view, the outstanding achievements of independent brands in going to sea benefit from the product and technical aspects. "Compared with fuel vehicle technology, independent brands have more technical advantages in the field of new energy vehicles, and intelligent interconnection has become an important selling point to attract overseas consumers." Anyu believes that China's leading electric vehicle industry chain, more mature electric vehicle product design and China's manufacturing advantages are promoting independent electric vehicles to sail to sea.
In this regard, Lin Jia has a more real feeling: "during our research, we found that the German market surprised Aichi cars a lot. As a traditional large manufacturer of fuel vehicles, we thought that Germany's acceptance of electric vehicles, an emerging thing, would be low and the market education cost would be high. However, Aichi cars are welcomed by many consumers after they are driven in Germany, covering the age group of 20-80."
According to the 2022 CICC white paper, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in the global mainstream market will exceed the critical point of 10% in 2022, new energy vehicles will enter the steep stage of the S-shaped growth curve, and the export market is expected to achieve multiple growth.
China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) even said in the Research Report: "we believe that 2021 is the first year of the outbreak of Chinese brands going to sea. We are optimistic that China will become a global automobile manufacturing base. It is expected that the proportion of exports in output will continue to increase, which may exceed 30%."
These elements seem to indicate that now is the best time for China's new forces to go to sea.
"Going global" has always been the dream of millions of Chinese auto practitioners. Once, the century old accumulation of cars in European countries made it impossible to go to sea independently, but electrification opened a window to the dream of Chinese cars going to sea, and intelligence gave wings to independent brand cars going to sea. Especially when China's automobile industry has entered the "stock era", independent brands refuse to "roll inside", and going out to explore more markets has become a turning point for future development.
It can not be ignored that old car companies still have an absolute dominant position in the European new energy market, and Renault Zoe and Volkswagen ID series occupy the forefront of the sales list. At the same time, upstart Tesla is also a best-selling electric vehicle brand in the European market. In the face of fierce competition in overseas markets, the new forces of China's car manufacturing face great challenges.
Li Bin, the founder and chairman of Weilai, said frankly: "now entering the global market, we are a seed. Don't hope that this seed can grow into towering trees and blossom and bear fruit immediately, which is not in line with the objective law of things."
The road is blocked and long, and the line is coming. On the way to sea, Chinese auto enterprises are still forging ahead.
