On April 11, the photovoltaic industry index hit a new low in the past 10 months, and market funds were still worried. The epidemic affected the logistics supply chain and adversely affected the downstream installed capacity growth.
The first finance and economics recently carried out research and report on the industrial chain under the epidemic. The reporter has investigated the status quo of the industrial chain with the highest degree of market concern such as semiconductors and photovoltaic. In April 11, it published the "Semiconductor Index to recall all the gains in the past year."
In the investigation of photovoltaic industry, the reporter found that listed enterprises have suspended the production activities of local factories due to the coordination of epidemic control, which will have a certain impact on short-term operation; At the same time, some photovoltaic listed enterprises in the Yangtze River Delta and other regions said that their performance has not been affected by the epidemic, but the poor logistics supply chain has dragged down some business processes.
logistics supply is still a problem
With the rapid development in recent years, the scale of China's photovoltaic industry has expanded year by year. The output of photovoltaic modules has ranked first in the world for 15 consecutive years, the output of polysilicon has ranked first in the world for 11 consecutive years, the new installed capacity has ranked first in the world for 9 consecutive years, and the cumulative installed capacity has ranked first in the world for 7 consecutive years. 2022 is a year of great demand for photovoltaic. In the first quarter, "off-season is not light", and the demand is much higher than expected. Since March, the epidemic has been repeated in many places across the country, and the situation of epidemic prevention and control in Jilin Province and Shanghai is still grim. With the introduction of more stringent epidemic prevention policies in many places, the impact of the epidemic on the photovoltaic industry has attracted much market attention.
Recently, Shanghai Hiuv New Materials Co.Ltd(688680) ( Shanghai Hiuv New Materials Co.Ltd(688680) . SH) announced that due to certain restrictions on the transportation of raw materials and auxiliary materials required for the normal production and operation of the company, the company's factory in Jinshan District, Shanghai has temporarily stopped production recently. The specific time for resuming normal production and operation will be arranged according to the progress of epidemic control of the local government.
According to the public information, Shanghai Hiuv New Materials Co.Ltd(688680) is mainly engaged in high-end film products. The main products are transparent EVA film, white synergistic EVA film, multi-layer coextrusion Poe film, glass film and other film products. Among them, the photovoltaic adhesive film used in the module link is in the midstream of the industrial chain and is the key material for module packaging. It plays a role in packaging and protecting Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) battery modules, can improve the photoelectric conversion efficiency of modules and prolong the service life of modules.
The main customers of Shanghai Hiuv New Materials Co.Ltd(688680) 's adhesive film for photovoltaic packaging include Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) ( Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) . SH), Jingke energy (688223. SH), Trina Solar Co.Ltd(688599) ( Trina Solar Co.Ltd(688599) . SH), Hanhua new energy and other downstream head module manufacturers.
As for the shutdown of the factory, Shanghai Hiuv New Materials Co.Ltd(688680) said that the temporary shutdown in the region affected by the epidemic is expected to delay the production and delivery of some products, which will have a certain adverse impact on the company's short-term performance.
According to the performance express, Shanghai Hiuv New Materials Co.Ltd(688680) 2021 achieved a total operating revenue of 3.104 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 109.54%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 257 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.34%.
photovoltaic industry chain is closely linked, and the logistics supply chain of each link is related to the downstream installation progress Shanghai Hiuv New Materials Co.Ltd(688680) will the shutdown affect the business development of downstream component manufacturers? The first financial reporter contacted some photovoltaic head enterprises
The business head of a head component factory told the first financial reporter: "The epidemic will have an impact on the photovoltaic industry chain. Especially in terms of logistics and transportation, Suzhou Wuxi Changzhou region now implements the '3 + 11' control of external import and export of the logistics industry, with three-day isolation and 11 day health monitoring. Although the things used in our factory are not emergency materials, it still reduces the efficiency of daily business activities. Although the impact on China's installed capacity is still unknown, it must have an impact."
At present, there are many people in charge of the company who are not affected by the epidemic situation.
epidemic disrupted the logistics industry chain, and the lagging operation caused the price to rise
In 2021, the price of silicon material end rose sharply, and the manufacturers of components and other links could not lead to cost pressure, resulting in the lower than expected demand for new photovoltaic installation throughout the year.
In the first quarter of this year, the demand for photovoltaic installation made a good start. At the same time, enterprises in various links such as silicon materials, silicon wafers and components are expanding their production capacity. According to the statistics of Photovoltaic Industry Association, the production capacity of the new plan and expansion is 2.77 times that of 2021. The market has high expectations for the development of photovoltaic industry in 2022.
However, at present, the epidemic situation has repeatedly led to logistics obstruction, lagging operation of the industrial chain, poor supply of silicon wafers, components, batteries and other links, and low turnover efficiency, which has led to the potential risk of price rise in the industrial chain, which may eventually lead to a decline in the growth rate of downstream demand.
According to the information of the silicon branch, a total of four specialized silicon wafer enterprises in Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai stopped production, two enterprises stopped crystal pulling, one enterprise resumed work and production recently, and the slicing link of one enterprise was affected and stagnated. The silicon branch predicts that the silicon wafer production is expected to decrease by about 1GW to 2gw in April.
"The production capacity of large silicon wafers is in short supply, and the new production capacity of silicon materials has not been released. The unsmooth shipment and overstock in the warehouse will directly lead to the difficulty of chip transportation and insufficient supply, which will aggravate the desire of silicon wafer enterprises to raise prices and have a chain reaction to the price rise of components and batteries. The price rise will eventually affect the growth rate of terminal installation demand." A TMT industry analyst told the first financial reporter.
From the price of photovoltaic industry chain last week (April 4-10), the impact of supply chain lag has been reflected. Among them, the price of silicon material increased slightly, mainly due to the slow landing of new production capacity silicon wafer prices rose across the board, especially for large-size silicon wafers in short supply. Component prices remained stable on the whole, but some component enterprises have tried to increase prices
"On the one hand, silicon materials have risen for 12 consecutive weeks due to the landing speed of production capacity, and there is a certain cost pressure in the middle and lower reaches. The impact of the epidemic on the supply chain has exacerbated the shortage of silicon wafer supply, so the silicon wafer link took the lead in raising prices across the board." The aforementioned analyst said, "the production and transportation of some component manufacturers have been affected to some extent, mainly because the logistics delivery personnel need to be isolated for several days. If the prices of upstream silicon materials and silicon wafers continue to rise, the component prices will still rise and be transmitted to the downstream".
It is worth noting that most of the photovoltaic products previously shipped from Shanghai Port came from the Yangtze River Delta. At present, although the port operates normally, due to the closed management of many regions, many regions in the Yangtze River Delta persuade Shanghai brand trucks to return or require them to report within 48 hours, which has a great impact on the freight efficiency.
An executive of a module enterprise told reporters, "each photovoltaic enterprise exports different ports. Our company is Ningbo Zhoushan Port Company Limited(601018) . Many enterprises send goods from Shanghai port. Recently, they have begun to adjust the goods originally planned to be sent from Shanghai port, or ensure the timeliness of logistics as much as possible through water and railway transportation, and relevant departments have also provided help."
