The prices of pesticides and chemical fertilizers, some grain seeds, gasoline and diesel, land rent and labor costs have increased to varying degrees, and the cost of grain planting has increased significantly.
Master Niu runs a pesticide and fertilizer store in Zhangjiachan Town, Wendeng District, Weihai City. Recently, the epidemic prevention policy in Wendeng district changed. Master Niu's store closed for about half a month and officially resumed business on April 11.
Weihai has entered the key stage of preparing for spring ploughing. According to the situation in previous years, it is now the peak of pesticide and chemical fertilizer sales. On the afternoon of April 11, there was a light rain in Zhangjiachan town. When tianniu master store, no one came to purchase pesticides and fertilizers.
"Affected by the rising prices of pesticides and chemical fertilizers and the epidemic, many farmers are still waiting and hoping that the prices of pesticides and chemical fertilizers will be cheaper in a while." Master Niu said.
According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, in late March, the price of urea (small particles) was 2912 yuan / ton, the price of compound fertilizer (potassium sulfate compound fertilizer, nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium content of 45%) was 3529 yuan / ton, and the price of pesticide (glyphosate, 95% technical drug) was 63056 yuan / ton, an increase of 32.4%, 45.4% and 98.3% respectively over the same period last year.
The 21st Century Business Herald reporter found that not only the prices of pesticides and chemical fertilizers, but also the prices of some grain seeds, gasoline and diesel, land rent and labor costs have increased to varying degrees, and the cost of grain planting has increased significantly.
According to the National Bureau of statistics, the prices of gasoline (92 country VI) and diesel (0 country VI) were 9925 yuan / ton and 8792 yuan / ton respectively in late March, compared with 7307 yuan / ton and 6045 yuan / ton respectively in the same period last year.
Different ways of grain production, different planting scale, different seed categories and varieties all affect the change of planting cost. Taking corn planting in Jilin Province as an example, Hu Wenhe, a professor of Jilin Agricultural University and chief expert of 12316 field crop cultivation of Jilin Provincial Agricultural Commission, introduced to the reporter of the 21st century economic report that on the whole, the cost of planting a long land (one hectare) of corn in Jilin Province this year is about 20000 yuan, an increase of 3 Xj Electric Co.Ltd(000400) 0 yuan over last year.
How does the rising price of agricultural materials affect the cost of growing grain? How does the rising cost of growing grain affect grain prices? Will the rising cost of grain planting put pressure on stabilizing the grain planting area?
rising prices of agricultural materials push up the cost of grain planting
According to the feedback of the chairmen of many interviewed farmers' cooperatives in Siping City, Jilin Province, the cost of planting one hectare of corn this year has increased by more than 1000 yuan compared with last year, and the planting cost of corn per hectare of some farmers' cooperatives has increased by more than 2000 yuan. Compared with farmers' cooperatives and small farmers, the total planting cost of farmers' cooperatives increased more, while the planting cost per unit area of small farmers increased more.
Zhong Yu, director of the industrial economy research office of the Institute of agricultural economy and development of the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, told the 21st Century Business Herald that in terms of quantity, more than 98% of China's grain production is mainly small farmers; In terms of planting area, the grain planting area of new agricultural business entities accounts for about 40% of the total planting area.
Zhong Yu believes that compared with small farmers, the new agricultural business entities are relatively less affected by the rise of grain planting costs.
Specifically, first, the new agricultural business entities have stronger ability to resist risks and digest planting costs; Second, many new agricultural business entities use their own agricultural machines and tools to cultivate, and the mode of grain production is more efficient, so the increase of planting cost is relatively small; Third, the cultural level and ability quality of new agricultural business entities are relatively high, and they have a stronger acceptance of new things and new planting technologies. The rise of grain planting costs will also force new business entities to carry out technological innovation and improve grain production efficiency.
"It is now advocated to 'lose weight and increase efficiency'. Lbx Pharmacy Chain Joint Stock Company(603883) (small farmers) need 2000 kg of fertilizer for planting a long field, and our cooperative grows 1500 kg of fertilizer underground, which saves part of the cost." Mr. Jiang, chairman of a farmers' Cooperative in Lishu County, Siping City, told the 21st Century Business Herald reporter.
Although grain production is more scientific and efficient, large-scale operation is also facing the pressure of rising costs.
Mr. Jiang said that the cost of growing grain in his cooperative mainly comes from land rent, seeds, pesticides, chemical fertilizer, diesel, labor costs, etc., and the cost of all kinds of growing grain has increased to a certain extent. Taking the land rent as an example, the corn planting area of the cooperative managed by Mr. Jiang this year is about 2500 mu, including 1500 mu of circulating land and 1000 mu of entrusted land. Due to the rising price of corn, the rent of a long land increased to 14500 yuan from 12000 yuan last year, and the rent of a long land increased by 2500 yuan.
Hu Wenhe said that the land rent of a long land in Jilin Province was mostly between 1200013000 yuan last year, and most of it rose to 1500017000 yuan this year. Including land rent, many cooperatives also have concerns in the face of significantly rising grain planting costs. The most worrying problem is how the grain price will change when the autumn harvest comes. If food prices do not rise at that time, the impact on the overall income of cooperatives may be greater. It is hard to say whether and to what extent grain prices will rise during the autumn harvest.
Zhong Yu believes that the rise in the prices of agricultural materials at the beginning of the year will inevitably be reflected in the grain prices during the autumn harvest, otherwise the grain production will not be sustainable.
In addition to being affected by the cost of growing grain, Zhong Yu pointed out that grain prices are also related to the relationship between supply and demand, as well as emergencies and abnormal events. On the one hand, the international tension will weaken the expectation of international grain production and trade volume. On the other hand, it may trigger financial capital speculation, exacerbate the panic of grain shortage and push up grain prices.
From the current situation, Zhong Yu predicted that grain prices will rise by about 15% year-on-year at the autumn harvest this year, and believed that the rise of grain prices should be viewed dialectically. From 1978 to 2018, the income of rural residents and urban residents in China increased 108 times and 113 times respectively, and the grain price increased 9 times in the same period, less than 10% of the increase in income.
cost changes have limited impact on grain production
This year's No. 1 central document will stabilize the annual grain sown area and output in the first place, ensuring that the sown area of grain is stable and output is maintained at more than 1 trillion and 300 billion jin.
No. 1 central document of the 13 main grain producing provinces in 2021 accounted for 78.5% of China's total grain output and assumed important responsibilities for ensuring national food security. According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, the Central Document No. 1 of this year also clearly stated that the comprehensive grain production capacity of the main grain producing areas should be continuously improved.
Taking Jilin Province as an example, the government work report of Jilin Province in 2022 made it clear that the grain output should be stable at more than 80 billion kg in normal years, make every effort to ensure stable agricultural production and increase production, stabilize the grain sowing area at more than 86 million mu, and expand the planting area of soybean and oil.
Hu Wenhe believes that the rise in the price of agricultural materials may have a certain impact on grain production, but the impact is small. Hu Wenhe said that the current price rise of agricultural materials is global. On the whole, compared with last year, the increase of chemical fertilizer is the largest, and it may also have the greatest impact on grain production.
"After the price of chemical fertilizer rises, the amount of fertilizer applied by farmers may be reduced, which will have a certain impact on grain output."
In terms of the overall situation of Jilin Province, Hu Wenhe believes that the adjustment of planting structure and the uncertainty of natural weather are important reasons affecting Jilin's grain output this year. Corn is the most important grain crop in Jilin Province, and the unit yield of soybean is lower than that of corn. This year, Jilin Province should not only adjust the grain planting structure and expand the soybean planting area, but also stabilize the total grain output and ensure the increase of corn. Relatively speaking, Jilin province faces certain pressure. In addition, natural weather will also affect grain production, which is uncertain.
In Zhong Yu's view, the rising cost of grain planting, especially the rising price of chemical fertilizer, has a certain impact on some farmers with small planting scale and low grain income, but the impact on China's overall grain output is relatively limited.
On the one hand, when the income from grain planting reaches a certain proportion in the total income of farmers, farmers will carefully manage grain production, ensure grain area and output, and reduce the concentration or dosage of chemical fertilizer; On the other hand, the cost of growing grain is one of the main factors affecting grain prices. This year's rise in the cost of growing grain will be reflected in the grain prices at the autumn harvest, and some of the rising pressure of planting costs will be digested.
However, many respondents were worried about the uncertainty of grain prices during the autumn harvest. Some respondents also increased the income of grain planting by expanding the granary area, increasing the scale of grain reserves and selling them when the grain prices rose.
Will the rising cost of growing grain affect farmers' enthusiasm for growing grain and the stability of grain planting area? Zhong Yu believes that it has a certain impact, but the impact will not be great.
In addition to the positive correlation between the rise of planting costs and grain prices, Zhong Yu also analyzed the grain production policy and the employment of grain farmers.
In terms of grain production policy, we should give full play to China's institutional advantages, guide and regulate policies, and suppress grain production responsibilities at all levels; The use of one-time grain subsidies and expanding the scope of grain insurance to bring certain guarantee to farmers' grain income; Increase the income of farmers in the grain industry chain and stabilize the income of farmers in the grain industry chain.
As far as farmers' employment is concerned, farmers' grain production is not only affected by the cost of growing grain, but also related to external employment opportunities. Farmers' non-agricultural employment opportunities and employment channels will not increase sharply, so continuing to engage in grain production is still the choice of the vast majority of grain farmers.
In addition, the reporter found in the interview that the agricultural machines and tools equipped by many farmers' production cooperatives far exceed the current planting scale, leaving room for improving the planting scale in the future.
Mr. Jiang said that the price of corn was high last year, and many small farmers chose to grow their own grain or transfer their land to relatives and friends this year, making it more difficult for cooperatives to transfer land. In the future, if the price of corn drops, the enthusiasm of small farmers and small-scale grain growers will decline, and the cooperatives will transfer these surplus land to grow corn.
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