Unexpected. The news that the game version number was restarted and issued after an interval of 8 months did not lead to a violent sector rebound.
On the evening of April 11, the official website of the State Press and publication administration showed that the first batch of domestic game titles were issued in April 2022, and a total of 45 domestic games were approved, including 39 mobile games, 5 end games and 1 host game.
The games of several listed companies have been approved this time, including Wuhu 37 Interactive Entertainment Network Technology Group Co.Ltd(002555) ( Wuhu 37 Interactive Entertainment Network Technology Group Co.Ltd(002555) . SZ) dream voyage, G-Bits Network Technology(Xiamen)Co.Ltd(603444) ( G-Bits Network Technology(Xiamen)Co.Ltd(603444) . SH) tower hunter, Yoozoo Interactive Co.Ltd(002174) ( Yoozoo Interactive Co.Ltd(002174) . SZ) chronicles of the Three Kingdoms: Pocket battle, heart company (02400. HK), the right star and Chuang mengtiandi (01119. HK), careful fire and candle, etc.
game board opens high and walks low
The last time a Chinese game company was approved was back in July 2021, when a total of 87 games were approved. Different from the suspension of the game version number in 2018, the version number has been suspended since July 2021, and the official has not issued relevant documents.
This "silent" suspension once made the market speculation infinite. This is also the biggest policy repression hanging on the A-share game sector and Chinese game companies in the US and Hong Kong stocks in the past eight months.
Therefore, the re issuance of the game version number after 263 days is undoubtedly the first major substantive positive for the game industry in 2022. However, the good news that made the game circle "like the Chinese New Year" did not detonate the secondary market on the night of the 11th and the 12th.
After the news was released on the 11th, China concept game stocks strengthened and opened higher in succession. At the opening of US stocks, Bili. O rose 10%, ntES. O and Huya. N rose nearly 9%, and Doyu. O rose more than 5%.
By the close, BiliBili rose 7.23%, Netease rose 2.12%, tiger tooth live broadcast and Betta rose 2.59% and 2.42% respectively.
On the 12th, the trend of high opening and low going was staged again in A-Shares and Hong Kong stocks. The A-share game sector (replaced by the wind online game index) opened up 5.18% and ended up 3.22%.
The heart company (02400. HK) with the approved version number opened 20.68% higher, and finally closed up only 0.42%; Wuhu 37 Interactive Entertainment Network Technology Group Co.Ltd(002555) , with the same approved version, fell rapidly after opening 3.69%, turned green in the session, and finally closed down 1.95%.
Tencent Holdings (00700. HK) and Netease (09999. HK), which have not been approved this time, have not gone out of the market today. Both closed up 3.62% and 4.21% respectively.
A long-awaited heavy news failed to cause a large-scale rebound in the sector, and the market once again performed a "good out". Several analysts said in an interview on the 11th that the market had expected the reissue of the version number.
industry trend has not reversed
"The version number will be restored sooner or later. I don't think there will be much change in the long term. It's already price in." The seller's game analyst Liu Dong (pseudonym) believed in an interview with reporters on the 11th that the game sector "has more than one jump this week".
Another seller's game analyst Li Hua (pseudonym) also said in an interview on the 11th that the expectation of version number (restart) had been "playing for a while" and most institutional investors are not expected to catch up.
In addition to the advance game on the capital side, the market may also be carefully evaluating the substantive value of this edition reissued in addition to "releasing the marginal signal of policy".
Liu Dong told reporters that from the perspective of trend, the number of edition numbers is indeed decreasing, "even if it is liberalized". He also mentioned that China's demographic dividend enjoyed by the game industry is close to peaking.
The 21st Century Business Herald reporter noted that the approved games are mainly light games from second-line manufacturers and small and medium-sized companies, and the number of approved games (45 models) is also significantly lower than the monthly average number before the suspension in 2021 (80 + models, up to 166 models in March).
According to the prediction of Everbright Securities Company Limited(601788) Fu Tianzi and Wang Kai on the 12th, about 50 game versions may be issued every month in the future this year, and the number of versions in the whole year will decrease by 35.5% year-on-year.
Therefore, the issuance of the first batch of game version numbers in 2022 actually continues to verify the overall trend of "controlling the total issuance of game version numbers" since August 2018. Superimposed on the juvenile game policies that have been issued, the long-term development trend of strong supervision and standardization of the game industry has not changed.
In terms of fundamentals, the current game industry is facing a competition pattern in which the demographic dividend gradually disappears and becomes more and more "rolling".
For example, in the field of purchase volume, the input-output ratio of manufacturers is still deteriorating. According to the monitoring data of dataeye ADX, the average use days of information flow creative advertising materials have decreased from 5.12 days in the first half of 2020 to 3.72 days in the same period of 2021.
According to the data of the game Working Committee of China audio and digital Association, the number of game users in China only increased by about 1.45 million in 2021 (a year-on-year increase of 0.22%), which is significantly smaller than the growth of tens of millions in previous years, and the demographic dividend of games tends to be saturated.
Moreover, from 2019 to 2021, China's mobile game penetration rate (mobile game user scale / mobile Internet user scale) was 97.36%, 98.43% and 98.45% respectively. The penetration level is close to saturation, and the future growth space is extremely limited.
The pressure from the policy side and industry pattern will obviously suppress the future performance and valuation level of game companies. In this regard, Li Hua believes that the restart and issuance of the version number will certainly repair the industry valuation, but it is difficult to be sustainable.
"The market sentiment is too low, and the industry valuation can repair part of it, but it is difficult to be too optimistic." Li Hua said.
