Current investment tips:
Social finance has recovered, and the proportion of broad medium and long-term loans has increased. In March 2022, China's new social financing scale in a single month was 4.65 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.27 trillion yuan year-on-year and 3.46 trillion yuan month on month. In terms of structure, in March 2022, enterprises' cumulative broad medium and long-term financing accounted for 49.9%, an increase of 15.5pct compared with the same difference in February, and the proportion of medium and long-term financing increased.
RMB loans increased and government bonds increased. In March, RMB loans from financial institutions increased by 3.13 trillion, an increase of 400 billion year-on-year and 1.9 trillion month on month; Enterprise short-term loans increased by 808.9 billion, a year-on-year increase of 14.8 billion, and bill financing increased by 318.7 billion, a year-on-year increase of 471.2 billion. Corporate bond financing has improved. In March, it increased by 389.4 billion, an increase of 8.7 billion year-on-year and 51.7 billion month on month. By summarizing the data of all corporate bonds in wind, the net financing of the construction industry in March was about 120.1 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 14.9% and a month on month increase of 61.1%, accounting for 42% of the net financing of the whole industry; In March, government bonds increased by 7052 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 392.1 billion yuan and a month on month increase of 433 billion yuan. The net financing of special bonds from January to march of 22 years was about 1.27 trillion yuan. According to regional statistics, Guangdong, Shandong, Zhejiang, Sichuan and Fujian, the top five, accounted for 45.5% in total.
Off balance sheet financing has been tightened, and the financing mode has gradually shifted to on balance sheet financing. Undiscounted bills increased by 28.6 billion in a single month in March, with a year-on-year decrease of 258.2 billion; Entrusted loans increased by 10.6 billion in March, a decrease of 14.8 billion year-on-year; Trust loans decreased by 25.9 billion in March, a year-on-year decrease of 153.2 billion. In terms of scale, according to the summary of products issued by usufruct trust, the issuance scale of new products in March was 127.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 56.4%; Structurally, the investment in infrastructure of new products in March was about 33.0%, accounting for 20.1pct of the same difference.
Undervalued value starting point + driving force optimistic expectation helps valuation repair. The necessary condition for the construction sector to obtain excess returns is that an optimistic expectation of the core driving force is being formed on the margin, and the stock price has not been fully reflected. At present, PE and Pb in the construction industry are 10.1x and 1.07x respectively, which are about 40% and 20% of the valuation in recent ten years. The marginal easing of liquidity helps the expansion of enterprises, and the valuation is expected to be repaired.
Investment analysis opinion: maintain the "optimistic" rating. We believe that the certainty of marginal improvement of investment demand has been further strengthened, and we recommend three directions: 1) the bottom of historical valuation, the value blue chip of expected improvement, and the central infrastructure enterprises China State Construction Engineering Corporation Limited(601668) , China Communications Construction Company Limited(601800) , China Railway Group Limited(601390) , China National Chemical Engineering Co.Ltd(601117) , local state-owned enterprises Anhui Construction Engineering Group Corporation Limited(600502) , Sichuan Road & Bridge Co.Ltd(600039) ; 2) Electric power engineering: recommend the main force of new energy construction Power Construction Corporation Of China Ltd(Powerchina Ltd)(601669) , China Energy Engineering Corporation Limited(601868) ; 3) Focus on the elastic targets that are expected to usher in cost repair in 22 years: Changjiang & Jinggong Steel Building(Group)Co.Ltd(600496) , Anhui Honglu Steel Construction(Group) Co.Ltd(002541) , focus on Jiangxi Geto New Materials Corporation Limited(300986) .
Risk tips: the economic recovery is less than expected, the infrastructure investment is less than expected, and the orders of listed companies are lower than expected.
