Key investment points:
Baijiu: sustained growth in the first quarter, and the impact of the epidemic has reached the dark moment. This week Baijiu sector fell 0.65%, consumption on the fundamentals is still affected by the impact of the outbreak of the suppression, the outlook is expected to achieve a good growth in the first quarter. This week, the wholesale price of original boxes in Maotai increased by 20 yuan to 2840 yuan, mainly due to the rebound in the wholesale price of irrational dumping in the early stage The Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) wholesale price was flat at 965 yuan, mainly due to Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) stopping goods to support the price and strictly grasping the disorderly price of fleeing goods. The Baijiu sector is still affected by the following factors: 1) the repeated impact of the epidemic. 2) Stability of Maotai wholesale price; 3) Whether the competition pattern of 1000 yuan price segment has deteriorated; 4) the impact of the price of sauce and wine on the high-end price. We believe that in the long run, with the epidemic prevention and control and vaccination rate increasing, the impact of the epidemic on Baijiu consumption will be passivated gradually, and there is no need to worry too much. According to the channel tracking in Nanjing, Jiangsu Province, the collection of Yanghe proceeds smoothly, mainly benefiting from the good start and the beautiful collection data; The delivery progress is slightly lower than that in previous years, which is mainly disturbed by the repeated epidemic situation; The dealer’s inventory is slightly higher than that in previous years. In view of the fact that the dynamic sales in the off-season market was slightly lower than expected, Yanghe chose to stop some goods and increase the promotion cost of tianzhilan to maintain the growth target of the whole year for 22 years. Shandong market channel tracking, Shandong market is more obvious impact of the epidemic, banquets, large meetings, City Hall Food and other restrictions, Ji’nan, Tai’an and other high-speed return, etc., the overall Baijiu consumption in the off-season is more light. In the 1000 yuan price segment, Maotai 1935 and Qinghua 30 revival edition have the highest consumer acceptance, mainly benefiting from the potential energy of Fenjiu national brand and the continuous intensive cultivation of Shandong market. Fenjiu has performed well in Shandong as a whole. The revival version partially replaced Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) the consumer group. Qinghua 20 continues to enjoy the fragrance advantage, and laobaifen’s dynamic sales feedback is fast. Part of the second and third tier sauce and wine continued to cool down, and the social inventory was relatively large. Subsequent dealers may stop paying for some sauce and wine. On the whole, the valuation of Baijiu sector has dropped to the comfort zone, and the annual performance growth is high. Baijiu sector wins the odds at the same time. Following the Moutai bottled up price, the impact of the epidemic is passivated, and the valuation of Baijiu still has some room to repair.
Beer: wait until the epidemic situation is gradually unsealed, and Chongqing Brewery Co.Ltd(600132) . The beer sector fell 3.01% this week, mainly due to the market’s relatively pessimistic sales in Q2 peak season under the interpretation of the epidemic exceeding expectations. April is the traditional peak season of beer consumption. At present, due to epidemic control and other measures, ready to drink channels such as catering have been impacted to a certain extent. At present, the epidemic is still the main reason to suppress beer consumption. From March, the sales volume of beer sector declined to a certain extent, and the performance of 22q1 beer sector is expected to be more cautious. Subsequently, with the gradual unsealing of the epidemic, after the recovery of the epidemic, we first recommended Chongqing Brewery Co.Ltd(600132) : 1) the impact of this round of epidemic was the smallest. From March to April, the epidemic mainly impacted Shandong, Jilin, Guangdong, Fujian and other places, and the damage degree was Tsingtao beer China Resources Yanjing heavy beer. From the data of March, the sales volume of heavy beer can still be flat, and it is expected that the sales volume of heavy beer 21q1 can still achieve double-digit growth. 2) This round of cost pressure has the least impact. The cost control of heavy beer is much better than that of the other three beer enterprises. After 22 years, it can still enjoy the dilution of a certain scale effect. At the current time point, the pressure on beer cost has passed the peak, and the price of aluminum, crude oil and glass bottles began to fall. We believe that the cost pressure of the subsequent beer sector is improving quarter by quarter. 3) Wusu sales are not as pessimistic as expected. The plan to add 15 big cities to heavy beer in 22 years can still contribute a certain increment. Wusu will expand from individual operation to group army operation. In 22 years, Wusu black beer and Wusu white beer will be gradually introduced, and horizontal brand extension will make incremental contributions. The existing market still has the potential of channel sinking and deep cultivation, which is also the due meaning of Bu system adjustment.
Condiment: watch for long-term recovery and pay attention to the elasticity of pickled mustard. Looking forward to 2022, the epidemic situation is disturbed repeatedly, the prices of raw materials such as soybeans may be difficult to fall, and the pressure of demand and cost needs to be released. However, with the de inventory of channels, the impact of superimposed community group purchase has weakened, and the industry is expected to show a weak recovery. In combination with the disclosure of the annual report, the leading Haitian has a stable performance, and Sichuan Teway Food Group Co.Ltd(603317) performance is weak. We pay attention to Chongqing Fuling Zhacai Group Co.Ltd(002507) flexibility. According to the business plan of the annual report, the target growth rate of Haitian revenue / net profit in 2022 is 12% / 12%. Considering the market environment and cost pressure, we believe that the target setting in 2022 is relatively stable Sichuan Teway Food Group Co.Ltd(603317) 2021 ended with a revenue decline of 14% and a profit decline of nearly 50%. Although 21q4 improved month on month, the operating pressure under industry competition and cost pressure is still there. The equity incentive set a revenue growth target of 15% in 2022. Considering the weak performance in 2021, the reversal can be expected in 2022. According to the recent follow-up, the Chongqing Fuling Zhacai Group Co.Ltd(002507) cost is locked and the epidemic situation is affected, so it is recommended to pay attention. (1) In 2022, the acquisition cost of qingcaitou at Chongqing Fuling Zhacai Group Co.Ltd(002507) cost side fell back to the normal level of 800 yuan / ton, superimposed with price increase factors. Based on the announcement of the 15% revenue growth guidance in 2022, the profit elasticity in 2022 is high; (2) Affected by the short-term epidemic, the household consumption scene increased, and the delivery and movable sales improved significantly month on month in March; (3) In 2022, the idea of focusing on pickled mustard will be changed, the category expansion route will be opened, and the channel sinking and catering expansion will be promoted, which is expected to contribute to the increase of income.
Dairy products: the short-term disturbance of the epidemic to the supply chain does not change the high demand. Under the epidemic situation, the supply chain of companies has been disturbed to some extent, but the epidemic situation will not change the residents’ demand for dairy products and other necessary materials, and the willingness to consume dairy products will remain. All enterprises have also taken response measures under the epidemic situation. Mengniu, Guangming, JUNLEBAO and other enterprises have opened community group purchase routes for the epidemic situation in Shanghai, trying to make up for the sales gap of the original channels.
Snack food: the disclosure season of the annual report has come, and we pay attention to the high-quality leader. The epidemic situation in many places has repeatedly affected terminal consumption, and the sector has been under pressure in the short term. However, since 21q3, companies in the leisure food sector have actively adjusted the investment of products, channels and expenses in response to the pressure of rising costs, fragmented channels and weak terminal consumption, and have achieved preliminary results. The performance disclosure period of 2021 annual report has expired, the performance of Chacha Food Company Limited(002557) performance forecast is bright, and the performance of Yanker Shop Food Co.Ltd(002847) q4 is significantly improved compared with Q3. It is suggested to pay attention to the performance recovery of leisure food leaders.
Frozen baking: it was disturbed by the epidemic in the first quarter and focused on the cost pressure in 22 years. Affected by the epidemic in the first quarter, the operation of supermarkets and other channels was suppressed, and the damage to the East China market was more serious. The price trend of raw materials in the later stage is worthy of attention, which may affect the profit performance of the company. We believe that there is no need to worry about the growth of Ligao. Looking forward to 22 years, the supply side capacity will continue to fall, and the sales will gradually get rid of the capacity constraints; On the channel side, except Sam, the company will conduct diversified layout in baking and catering channels; On the product side, the company has rich reserves of new products; The price increase of profit end products can hedge the pressure of rising costs.
Investment suggestion: Baijiu sector: the value of high-end Baijiu is obvious, the secondary high-end is still in the upward cycle, and the growth leader is sticking to it. The real estate liquor epidemic situation is relatively stable, focusing on Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) Jiangsu King’S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) Anhui Gujing Distillery Company Limited(000596) / Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(002304) Sichuan Swellfun Co.Ltd(600779) Anhui Kouzi Distillery Co.Ltd(603589) Beijing Shunxin Agriculture Co.Ltd(000860) . Beer sector: high-end continues to accelerate, short-term sales fluctuations do not change the upward trend of performance, focusing on Chongqing Brewery Co.Ltd(600132) / Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) / Beijing Yanjing Brewery Co.Ltd(000729) / China Resources beer / Guangzhou Zhujiang Brewery Co.Ltd(002461) , etc. Condiment sector: focus on Foshan Haitian Flavouring And Food Company Ltd(603288) / Qianhe Condiment And Food Co.Ltd(603027) / Jonjee Hi-Tech Industrial And Commercial Holding Co.Ltd(600872) / Chongqing Fuling Zhacai Group Co.Ltd(002507) / Jiangsu Hengshun Vinegar-Industry Co.Ltd(600305) etc. Dairy products sector: focus on Shanghai Milkground Food Tech Co.Ltd(600882) / Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group Co.Ltd(600887) / Bright Dairy & Food Co.Ltd(600597) / New Hope Dairy Co.Ltd(002946) / Mengniu Dairy industry, etc. Snack food sector: we should still focus on the main line of growth, pay attention to channel driven, and focus on Chacha Food Company Limited(002557) / Ganyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002991) / Juewei Food Co.Ltd(603517) / Zhou black duck / Yanker Shop Food Co.Ltd(002847) , etc. Frozen baking sector: under the background of rising labor costs and store rents, catalytic frozen baking dough is widely used, and the track is booming, focusing on Ligao Foods Co.Ltd(300973) / Namchow Food Group(Shanghai) Co.Ltd(605339) / Zhengzhou Qianweiyangchu Food Co.Ltd(001215) , etc. Special liquor and beverage sector: pre mixed liquor and energy drinks are good tracks in Changpo, focusing on Shanghai Bairun Investment Holding Group Co.Ltd(002568) (improved quarterly) / Eastroc Beverage (Group) Co.Ltd(605499) (exceeding the expectation in the annual report), etc.
Risk warning: macroeconomic downside risk; Food safety issues; Intensified market competition; The price increase was less than expected
