[early trading strategy]
Technically, the volume of the Shanghai stock index has a medium and long negative line, and the center of gravity of the index has been moving downward. From Monday's low level, the index showed the characteristics of "falling volume and rising volume", which proved that there was no obvious sign of capital intervention in the process of intraday withdrawal. Gem refers to the bald middle Yin line with a downward jump gap. The index has formed a daily line of four consecutive Yin. At present, it shows the characteristics of accelerating to catch up with the bottom. With the gem index falling below the low point on March 9 on Monday, the technical break has been formed, and the short-term bottom signal has not yet appeared. It is suggested that investors continue to wait patiently.
On Monday, the market fell more than the market generally expected. The reasons are as follows: first, the expectation of reducing reserve requirements and interest rates failed last weekend; Secondly, there is still no inflection point in the national epidemic situation; Third, while the economic growth rate is down, the inflation data is rising, and the fear of "stagflation" in the market is rising again; Fourth, the US bond interest rate has risen sharply, resulting in the upside down of the interest rate of China US 10-year Treasury bonds for the first time since 2010, and the rise of risk aversion in the market; Fifth, the situation between Russia and Ukraine remains tense. From the market operation on Monday, we believe that it is difficult to attack the market upward, and the aftermarket may need a process of shock bottoming in order to wait for the gradual improvement of the environment. Under the pattern of weak market, the market will still focus on the structural market of individual stocks. Investors are advised to watch more and move less, and do a good job in band operation on the basis of maintaining flexible positions. It is suggested that investors focus on the following main lines: first, the main line of "steady growth". Affected by the epidemic situation in Shanghai and other places, it is more difficult to achieve an annual economic growth rate of 5.5%. Fiscal and monetary policies may be further relaxed, focusing on the direction of new and old infrastructure and real estate that benefit the most. The main line of "steady growth" may become the main line throughout the year; Second, the main line of inflation. Affected by the war, the spring sowing area in Ukraine will be halved, or the global food supply gap will increase, Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) prices will rise, and the performance of seeds, pesticides, fertilizers and other sectors may increase significantly. In addition, CPI may gradually rise this year and pay attention to the investment opportunities of compulsory consumption; Third, pay attention to the undervalued varieties with pre increased performance in the first quarter.
[message side]
1, Boc International (China) Co.Ltd(601696) (13.240, 0.00, 0.00%) Guan Tao, global chief economist: there is still room for China to reduce reserve requirements and interest rates
On April 11, Boc International (China) Co.Ltd(601696) global chief economist Guan Tao said in an exclusive interview with Shanghai Securities News that at present, there is still room for China to reduce reserve requirements and interest rates, and the two tools can be used alternately or superimposed; In the context of steady growth, it is expected that the fast pace of issuance of special bonds in the second quarter will continue, and infrastructure investment will become an important starting point for driving steady economic growth.
2. Corporate credit demand improved, and the financial data in March exceeded expectations
On April 11, the March financial data released by the people's Bank of China exceeded the expectations of many institutions. Experts said that the financial data in March reflected new progress in credit easing. In the next stage, we need to give full play to the role of monetary policy tools to help the economy operate within a reasonable range.
3. CPI rose by 1.1% year-on-year in the first quarter and is expected to rise moderately in the whole year
According to the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics yesterday, the year-on-year increase of the national consumer price index (CPI) expanded in March, and the year-on-year increase of the industrial producer price index (PPI) continued to fall. From January to March, on average, CPI increased by 1.1% over the same period last year, and PPI increased by 8.7% over the same period last year. Experts interviewed by reporters said that the rise in CPI was mainly the common result of the short-term disturbance of covid-19 pneumonia and the transmission effect of international commodity prices. At the same time, the data also reflect that the downward transmission speed of upstream price rise pressure is accelerating. Looking forward to the later stage, it is expected that the CPI of the whole year will remain moderate, and the PPI of the second quarter may still grow positively month on month.
4. The year-on-year increase of CPI expanded in March, and PPI continued to fall. Experts believe that the overall inflation level is controllable
On April 11, the National Bureau of statistics released the data of national CPI (consumer price index) and PPI (factory price index of industrial producers) in March. In March, CPI increased by 1.5% year-on-year, an increase of 0.6 percentage points over the previous month; It was flat month on month. PPI rose 8.3% year-on-year, down 0.5 percentage points from the previous month; Up 1.1% month on month.
