Recently, the market has been quite restless.
On April 11, the Shanghai Composite Index closed down 2.61%; The gem index fell 4.20%, a new low in the year; The Kechuang 50 index fell below base points for the first time to close at 988 points.
More than 4100 stocks in the two cities fell, with a net sale of 5.761 billion yuan of northbound funds.
On the same day, only the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery sectors achieved positive returns, while lithium, rare earth, Baijiu, photovoltaic, semiconductor, real estate and financial sectors took the lead in readjustment.
Hong Kong stocks were also very depressed. The Hang Seng Index fell 3.03% and the Hang Seng technology index fell 5.24%.
Under the sharp decline, institutions believe that they still need to be cautious in the short term and are optimistic about “steady growth”; However, in the medium and long term, institutions are not pessimistic about the market and believe that “growth + cycle” or the main investment line in the process of subsequent market rebound.
adjust the three pushers
Institutions generally believe that there are three drivers behind the A-share adjustment on April 11:
First, the communication situation of Omicron is not clear, which puts China’s supply chain at risk;
Second, the inflation data in March exceeded market expectations. In March, China’s PPI rose by 8.30% year-on-year and CPI rose by 1.5% year-on-year, both of which significantly exceeded market expectations and renewed inflation concerns;
Third, the interest rate spread between China and the United States has been upside down for the first time since 2010, which is superimposed with the tightening of currency by the Federal Reserve, causing concerns about the risk of capital outflow.
China Merchants Fund pointed out that on April 11, the A-share market adjusted, especially the new energy, nonferrous metals, electronics and automobile sectors fell sharply, which is closely related to Omicron communication. The epidemic situation in Shanghai and Guangdong, where China’s economy is the most active, is grim. Kunshan and Taicang, which have intensive science and technology manufacturing industries such as electronics and automobile, implement global static management, and the industrial chain faces supply chain risks.
In fact, affected by the shutdown of the new energy industry chain, leading stocks led the decline on April 11, affecting market risk appetite.
China Merchants Fund believes that, on the other hand, the substantial adjustment of the A-share market growth sector on April 11 was also impacted by the sharp rise in global risk-free interest rates. On April 11, the yield of us 10-year Treasury bond exceeded 2.75, the interest rate spread between China and the United States was upside down, and the rise of interest rate exacerbated the contraction of valuation of growth stocks. In addition, the trading institutions sensitive to overseas interest rates among northbound funds make the A-share trading structure more unstable. The heavy positions of these funds overlap with the current heavy positions of Chinese institutions, including positions, market growth, new energy and other sectors.
However, for the recent market shock, the industry believes that the main reason is lack of confidence, and the negative factors have been amplified.
On April 11, the turnover of the two cities was 963.7 billion yuan.
Accordingly, some people in the industry believe that the market may not have fallen through if the volume falls.
On the same day, a private placement manager told reporters that he had cleared his funds and waited for the investment signal at the bottom of the market.
Another private equity executive also said, “in the early stage, we have reduced our stock position to 30%, which has not been cleared. I expect a small rebound in the near future, and then a new low.”
However, he expects the bottom of the market to appear in the near future, and he is also waiting for the opportunity to increase his position.
institutions: short-term “steady growth” + medium and long-term “growth stocks”
Huaxia Fund said that in the short term, the market mentality is more cautious. The index is still in the process of finding the bottom. The internal and external uncertainty has significantly amplified the volatility in the market operation, but the correction of the index also makes the medium-term investment opportunities more obvious.
“From the perspective of trading strategy, in addition to paying attention to and preventing short-term risk factors, we should also focus on the return trend of medium – and long-term fundamental values. After adjustment, investment opportunities in some growth industries have become more optimistic.” Huaxia Fund believes that.
To sum up, institutions believe that the short-term market probability is a volatile trend, so they are optimistic about “steady growth”; However, institutions are not pessimistic about the medium and long term, so they are more optimistic about growth stocks.
Boshi fund judged that the probability of A-Shares will continue to fluctuate, and internal and external uncertainties will still affect its trend.
In terms of strategy, the fund has reached the medium-term point, while in terms of strategy, it has reached the medium-term point. Judging from the price performance index (ERP) of the stock market, the overall price performance of the current market is close to the historical bottom (2016, 2018 and 2020), or it means that there is very limited room for further decline.
China Merchants Fund pointed out that the current A-share market investment will put more emphasis on certainty. At present, the focus of the market for policy expectations lies in the follow-up “confidence recovery” areas, including areas with potential support for policy development, such as infrastructure, real estate, stable demand and related industrial chains (banking, real estate, building materials, construction, etc.).
Fan Tingfang, fund manager of Haifutong, also believes that based on the medium and long term and from the current position, the prospect of the real science and technology growth industry is still very good. At present, the overreaction of the market to some events has adjusted the relevant industries to a very reasonable or even ultra underestimated level.
In addition, China Merchants Fund said that in the context of global inflation, it still chooses the inflation chain in the medium term, especially the types with high correlation with global inflation and supply gap that cannot be filled in the short term, such as upstream resource products and grain.
“In the medium and long term, we are optimistic about the sectors with undervalued value, performance, determined growth and marginal changes.” China Merchants Fund said.
Huaxia Fund pointed out that in the short-term complex and changeable process of the market environment, it needs to be more patient, especially confidence in growth stocks.
“Growth + cycle is still the main investment line in the subsequent market rebound.” Huaxia Fund believes that.
Ping An Fund believes that in the short term, it can still continue to pay attention to the focus of economic “steady growth”, including finance, real estate, building materials, etc. In the long run, when the systemic risks dissipate gradually, the core assets in high prosperity new energy and consumer medicine still deserve special attention.
Dacheng Fund’s outlook said that the current market is still in a period of shock consolidation, follow-up attention to the direction of steady growth policy, and grasp the valuation and repair market of building materials, construction, banks and real estate of state-owned enterprises. In the medium and long term, we should continue to grasp the strategic allocation direction of scientific and technological innovation.
Wang Jing, chief strategist of ChuangJin Hexin fund, analyzed that the upside down of interest rate difference between China and the United States does not necessarily mean that China’s monetary policy space disappears. At present, the RMB exchange rate is still strong and the pressure of capital outflow is not large. On the contrary, it is more necessary to adopt stable growth policies to stimulate economic stabilization and maintain the relative attractiveness and competitive advantage of China’s economy. Therefore, steady growth is still the market theme, and subsequent policy overweight can still be expected
What caused the 4.11 crash? The net outflow of funds from the north is 6 billion. Who is withdrawing? Interpretation of more than ten public offering Hotlines
What is the reason why ningwang and maowang both hit the market and fell sharply? The new regulations on Fawei’s multiple shares touch the strongest delisting provisions in the financial category
