On Monday, the A-share market was full of ink. The Shanghai index fell 2.61%, the Shenzhen composite index fell 3.67%, and the gem index fell 4.2%. At the same time, Hong Kong stocks also fell significantly, with the Hang Seng technology index down 3.03% and the Hang Seng technology index down 5.24%. Fund Jun urgently connected many well-known private equity institutions such as Xingshi investment, Danyi investment, Huaxia future capital, Ruiyi investment, zhurun investment, Chenxiang fund, Xiangcheng investment, Hexi investment, Shennong investment and so on.
In the view of private investors, the repeated epidemic in China has put pressure on economic growth, the accelerated process of interest rate increase and table contraction by the Federal Reserve, the uncertainty of the situation in Russia and Ukraine, and the upside down of interest rates between China and the United States are all the reasons for the recent market adjustment. At present, market confidence still needs to be improved. Private placement believes that the current market is still in the stage of shock and bottom grinding, and the market opportunities outweigh the risks in the medium term. Some private placements reduce their positions and wait for the macro situation outside China to fall. Some private placements buy more and buy more and gradually increase their positions in high-quality companies. Private placement is optimistic about new energy, high-end manufacturing and other directions, as well as the energy sector, consumption and medicine. Many high-quality growth stocks have reached attractive valuations, and a great buying opportunity is coming.
epidemic situation: market adjustment due to interwoven factors from outside China
Huaxia future capital said that there was a comprehensive adjustment in the A-share market on Monday. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 2.61%, the gem index fell 4.20%, and only the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery industries in 31 Shenwan industries received a red. The reason for the sharp decline in the market is that the impact of China's epidemic continues to expand, and the steady growth policy is less than expected. There are a large number of confirmed and asymptomatic cases in Shanghai this round, and confirmed cases also occurred in important cities such as Beijing, Guangzhou and Nanjing last weekend. The pressure of the epidemic on China's economic growth is increasing. The decline in logistics efficiency caused by the epidemic has led to a shortage of raw materials and a decline in the operating rate of the manufacturing industry in the Yangtze River Delta. Under the current circumstances, it is difficult to give consideration to China's epidemic prevention and control, economic growth and sound fiscal and monetary policies at the same time. Investors are worried. The gem index led the decline, reflecting investors' lack of confidence in long-term assets such as new energy, semiconductors and biomedicine, the decline in the operating rate of relevant industries affected by logistics and the epidemic, and the upside down of China US interest rate spread accelerated the speed of this round of share price adjustment.
Xiong Lin, director of Ruiyi investment research, analyzed the reasons for the sharp decline in the market on the 11th: on the one hand, China's macro economy has become stronger due to the pressure of the epidemic, and the macro economy has weakened since the third quarter of last year. This year, the state has introduced positive measures to stabilize growth and set an annual economic growth target of 5.5%. However, due to the spread of the epidemic in Shenzhen, Shanghai and other places since March, the number of infected people in Shanghai has continued to rise over the weekend, As well as sporadic cases in Guangzhou and other regions, the market is worried that the continuous and repeated spread of Omicron will lead to a more severe macroeconomic situation. On the other hand, the Fed has accelerated the process of raising interest rates and shrinking the table, which has led to the rapid rise of US bond yields in the near future, even exceeding the yield level of China's ten-year Treasury bonds; At the same time, the situation in Russia and Ukraine has not developed in the direction of easing the peace talks, but there is a risk of further escalation; The overall overseas macro environment is facing the risk of interest rate increase and stagflation, which is unfavorable to the trend of the capital market. In addition, the reasons for the large decline of the gem are: first, at the capital level, the heavyweights of the gem are high-quality growth stocks that have risen more in the past few years, which is also the direction of the current allocation proportion of institutions. However, since this year, the newly raised funds of public funds have shrunk significantly, and the overall capital flow is insufficient; Second, at the fundamental level, the growth direction of new energy and consumer electronics is under downward pressure in the face of the macro-economy under the epidemic; Third, the value growth style has significantly outperformed in the past few years. However, since China's macro policy turned to steady growth in the fourth quarter of last year, the style has gradually turned to the direction of undervalued value such as real estate infrastructure. Especially under the stimulation of the steady growth policy this year, the style switching is more extreme, which has exacerbated the allocation adjustment of institutional funds to a certain extent.
Xiangcheng investment believes that there are three main reasons for the sharp adjustment of the index represented by the gem on Monday: the ten-year US debt is rapidly approaching 3%, the upside down of the interest rate difference between China and the United States is inevitable, which seriously suppresses the valuation of growth stocks. This process is still in progress. Second, for some funds sensitive to interest rates and exchange rates, when the interest rate gap between China and the United States expands, the phased reduction of A-share leading companies will also bring rapid adjustment to the market. Third, according to the latest data released, the balance of medium and long-term loans of residents and enterprises in March was still lower than that of the previous month, especially the higher than expected cost, which further eroded the profits of the manufacturing industry.
Zhurun investment also said that any market is brewing, and the fierce rise and fall of the market must correspond to the accumulation of potential energy. Before Monday's sharp decline in the market, we have seen the accumulation of many negative factors outside China in the past two weeks: first, the trend of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine is highly uncertain, which casts a shadow on the global financial market; Second, the minutes of the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in March showed that it had become a consensus to raise interest rates rapidly and sharply, and the interest rate of US Treasury bonds continued to rise. On April 11, there was an upside down of the interest rate of China US 10-year Treasury bonds that had not been seen in more than a decade, which also meant that China's monetary easing space was further squeezed; Third, the negative effects of the epidemic in Shanghai and other places on economic fundamentals appear, and this factor has hardly been priced by the market in the past two weeks. With the disclosure of some economic data in April, we will see more impact of the epidemic on China's economy. In addition, the gem fell below the low point in March, mainly due to the sharp decline of weight sectors such as new energy vehicles. At the weekend, Weilai automobile announced that the production of finished vehicles had been suspended, and there was an epidemic in Ningde City, which had a significant impact on the industrial chain of new energy vehicles and hit the whole sector from the level of performance expectation and risk preference. At the same time, the continuous rise of US bond interest rate means that the valuation of growth stocks, including Nasdaq, will be systematically affected, which also affects the gem index to a certain extent.
Private placement believes that the current market sentiment is weak. Xingshi investment frankly said that the reasons behind the sharp decline in the stock market on Monday are: on the one hand, the local epidemic situation in China is severe and the market economy is expected to weaken further; On the other hand, the upside down of interest rates in China and the United States has a great impact on market sentiment. In addition, China's speculation mood has cooled down. "Opinions of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council on accelerating the construction of a national unified market" issued on April 10 , it is good for the medium and long-term economy and capital market, but it has little impact on the current macro environment and capital market. The policy is based on the long-term, which leads to the cooling of the mood of short-term speculation. At present, market confidence still needs to be improved. In this environment, the market has more stringent requirements for positive information, and negative information may be amplified by sentiment. Therefore, short-term fluctuations are inevitable, and one-day ups and downs cannot change the fact that the medium and long-term cost performance is prominent. "
Zhang Binbin, general manager of Chenxiang fund, told fund Jun that the sharp drop on Monday was mainly due to the impact of the epidemic on the economy, which began to be verified on the data end, and investors' concerns were finally reflected through trading behavior. During the Tomb Sweeping Day holiday, the number of tourists, tourist arrivals and income decreased significantly year-on-year. Last week, the throughput of the distribution center of express enterprises and the freight flow of finished vehicles further weakened, which was significantly lower than that in the same period in recent years. In addition, why did the gem decline so much? This year, public and private equity generally believe that growth should be maintained before growth, and defense before attack. Before the relevant policy toolkit for economic stabilization is issued and produces specific results, people still have a wait-and-see attitude towards the growth stocks and track stocks in the first three years. Therefore, under the expectation of short-term economic decline, it is reasonable that the gem has a greater decline than the CSI 300.
A 10 billion private placement said that the market decline was the result of the superposition of many factors: first, the Omicron epidemic continued to spread throughout the country. After Shanghai, cities were closed in many parts of the country, and concentrated in the economically developed areas in the East. The epidemic had a great negative impact on the supply chain, employment and income. Secondly, geopolitical risks lead to high commodity prices and reduce the profits of midstream enterprises. China is a large manufacturing country, and the upstream prices are at an extremely high level, which has a great impact on the profits of enterprises. Third, the real estate risk is still in the process of release. The game rise of the real estate sector in the A-share market does not represent a substantial improvement in the industry fundamentals.
Hexi investment said that for the reasons for the sharp decline of the gem, it is understood that the rise of US bond yields has suppressed the growth style, and the spread of the epidemic has exacerbated investors' concerns about the economic downturn.
The general manager of an old private placement in Beijing said that the epidemic exceeded expectations, the international environment was not good, inflation was higher than expected, and the interest spread between China and the United States was upside down. These factors all affected the recent market. "But we are still optimistic about the long-term. At present, the stock position is also relatively heavy. The recent market decline mainly adopts stock index futures hedging. Good stocks in new energy, military industry, Internet and other industries hold them and slowly increase their positions in the process of decline."
market is in the stage of shock and bottom grinding
medium term market opportunities outweigh risks
On the future market, Xiong Lin said that in the short term, he maintained a wait-and-see attitude towards the market, waited for the macro situation outside China to be cleared, and was not pessimistic about the medium and long-term market. "The short-term market still needs to wait for the easing of the macro situation outside China. On the one hand, we can see the restart and recovery of China's economic activities by waiting for the arrival of the turning point of the dynamic clearing of the epidemic in China; on the other hand, we can wait for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates and shrink the table in May. At that time, the pressure brought by the rise of US bond yields will come to an end. At the same time, we also need to observe the changes in the situation in Russia and Ukraine. If it is eased, it will be conducive to the valuation repair of the global capital market
Xingshi investment said that if the time is prolonged, the main factors that suppress the stock market sentiment in the short term will be alleviated. The short-term volatility of the epidemic between China and the United States will fade further, and the possibility of interest rate reversal will be greatly reduced. "At present, the market is still in the stage of shock and bottom grinding, and the market opportunities outweigh the risks in the medium term. On the one hand, although the policy is based on the long term, economic stabilization is also a probability event. The turning point in fundamentals will greatly enhance market confidence. At present, it is necessary to wait for the turning point of the epidemic and the continuous implementation of stable growth policies to form a joint force. On the other hand, reasonable valuation is an important support for the medium and long-term improvement. As of April 11, Wande A's P / E ratio Valuation Office has been established The level of 26% quantile since 2000. "
Zhu Liang, manager of Danyi investment fund, said that for the aftermarket, we are still in a "stagflation" environment, and there is no clear timetable for the mitigation of the epidemic and inflation. However, looking forward to the second quarter, some marginal improvement signals can also be expected. For example, the epidemic in Shanghai may be under control in April, the relaxation of local real estate policies may stimulate the improvement of real estate sales and investment, the cooling of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the reduction of imported inflation of external energy, and the agreement reached between China and the United States on the cross-border supervision of China concept shares. Combined with the current relatively low valuation level, the market may get rid of the unilateral downward trend in the first quarter.
Private placement believes that the current market provides high-quality buying opportunities. Huaxia future capital said that the policy signal has become stronger and stronger in the past month from the meeting of the financial committee to the Symposium of economic situation experts and entrepreneurs hosted by the premier last week. However, the market "does not scatter eagles when there are no rabbits" in the emotional downturn. More favorable accumulation is needed to restore confidence from the policy expectation to the policy implementation stage. "We believe that in the context of the severe situation of epidemic prevention and control, the government's determination to stabilize the economy and employment will be stronger. Time has become a friend of investors when the market valuation has fallen to a low level. The two engines of China's future economic growth are the growth of consumer demand and the transformation and upgrading of manufacturing industry. These two types of companies have been pursued by the market in the previous three years, with a serious valuation premium. At present, in the period of market panic, they have invested in China A great opportunity for investors to buy these two types of assets at a reasonable valuation. "
Zhang Binbin believes that the market has near worries but no foresight. In the short term, there are four major macro variables that suppress the performance of the A-share market. Any improvement of any factor will play a positive role in the market: first, China's economic growth and clear credit delivery path; Second, the situation in Russia and Ukraine has stabilized and its impact on the financial system has weakened; Third, the intensity and path of interest rate hike in the United States are clarified; Fourth, the response mode and effect of the epidemic can be reflected. In the medium and long term, after a substantial valuation adjustment, the negative impact of the above macro level will eventually be improved. New energy, semiconductor, intelligent manufacturing, new materials and other emerging industries with high growth potential in the future are worth looking forward to. "We believe that in the future, China's equity market will glow with great new vitality and breed huge investment opportunities. We will still look for opportunities in specialized and new science and technology enterprises."
The aforementioned 10 billion private placement said that in view of the superposition of multiple risk factors, it maintained a cautious attitude towards the overall market outlook, and currently focuses on managing portfolio risk by controlling positions. "Next, we will pay close attention to the process of market risk release and actively look for potential structural opportunities on the premise of risk control."
private placement waiting for position reduction or buying more and more
quality growth stocks with attractive valuation
In terms of portfolio investment, zhurun investment said that due to its doubts about economic growth at the beginning of 2022, especially after the intensification of China's epidemic factors in March, its equity position has been reduced to less than 15% of the multi strategy portfolio recently, and further reduced its position to less than 10% at the end of March. "If the market experiences another wave of faster adjustment, the compensation of risk premium will be more attractive. We will actively consider increasing the medium-term allocation position. In the industry sector, the overall idea is to find defensive and dividend assets, such as agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, coal and petrochemical industry chain. In addition, the medium-term investment value of some undervalued varieties in Hong Kong stock connect is also emerging."
Standing at this point in time, Xiangcheng investment believes that it is first necessary to control positions in operation. Pay close attention to the effect of China's credit expansion and the process of Fed tightening. Caution must be exercised until the two factors are not reversed. In terms of industry configuration, the industry layout with high performance certainty and low valuation should be selected as far as possible. At the same time, pay attention to industries with marginal changes driven by policies.
Xiong Lin said that recently, the overall investment operation has maintained a low position state, and the allocation direction has been relatively balanced. In the adjustment of market shocks, we have been looking for the subdivision direction and individual stocks with low share price and marginal change. "After the market decline this year, many high-quality growth stocks have returned to a comfortable position with attractive valuation. We believe that the continued decline of the market will be more about breeding opportunities than risks. We will continue to deeply track and study the fundamentals and overall macro situation changes of high-quality companies, and gradually choose opportunities to layout high-quality companies; in the direction of allocation, we maintain a relatively balanced allocation idea and continue to be optimistic about new energy, technology and high-tech industries Companies that comply with China's high-quality development direction, such as end manufacturing, consumption and medicine. "
Hexi investment said that at the operational level, because the market fell into irrational decline and there was no reversal factor for the time being, some positions were reduced passively based on risk control. "For the future, we believe that value stocks will have relative returns at present, but the absolute returns in the second half of the year are more from high-quality growth stocks that have oversold, mainly focusing on photovoltaic, energy storage and other directions."
Zhang Binbin said that while avoiding the risks of Chinese stocks and Hong Kong stocks in US stocks, by examining the positions in the past year, we found that the product positions have always been in the middle and low range, because there is growth in A-Shares in the short term and the number of objects with valuation in the valuation comfort range is limited. In view of this, we have allocated a certain proportion of non equity assets from the perspective of large categories of assets, Relatively speaking, these assets have lower correlation and systemic risk with a shares, and their returns can also improve the efficiency of capital utilization and increase the rate of return, so as to give investors a better holding experience.
Of course, when there is a trend opportunity in the stock market, you can also switch to the past, so as to add a higher return per unit time.
Shennong investment believes that after nearly a year of full adjustment, the market may differentiate again. The index and mediocre companies may continue to fluctuate and fall, but the decline of good companies will be much smaller, and even begin to rebound and reverse. In the second quarter, focus on rebound opportunities in the process of shock bottoming. The industry level mainly focuses on military industry, intelligent electric vehicles and covid-19 resistance.
Zhu Liang said that structurally, sectors such as real estate and coal that fry expectations and raise valuations may still be dominant, but their investment difficulty lies in the lack of long-term logic, and the valuation repair may stop abruptly at any time. "Relatively speaking, we prefer to reserve some opportunities for troubled princes, pay more attention to those high-end consumption and services with large long-term space, good competition pattern and suppressed by the epidemic in the short term, as well as software opportunities with long adjustment time and low valuation. For some new energy and semiconductors with high early expectations and institutional reconfiguration, we need to track more fundamentals and choose configuration after the differences are resolved."
