Looking back on Monday’s A-share market, A-share encountered “Black Monday”. The Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets opened low across the board. After the inertia fell at the beginning of the session, the stock index continued to fluctuate weakly. There was no counterattack in the session. It weakened further in the afternoon and continued to dive downward in the late session. After the Shanghai index fell below the 3200 mark, the gem continued to fall.
As Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) mentioned, on Monday, the Shanghai composite index broke through the 3200 point integer mark again, and the gem, science and innovation board and other indexes hit periodic lows. More than 4000 stocks in the two cities fell, nearly 100 stocks fell by more than 9%, and market sentiment was low. In the short term, the market may continue to bottom down. In the current weak situation, suggest you continue to control your positions, patiently wait for the market to stop falling and stabilize, focus on the high-quality varieties killed by mistake, and wait for the bottom reading opportunity on the right .
From a technical point of view, Central China Securities Co.Ltd(601375) pointed out that the stock index broke through the 3200 point integer mark and showed the operation characteristics of unilateral downward throughout the day. The trading volume of the two cities is 960 billion yuan, and the stock game characteristics are still the same. Only the risk averse industries such as agriculture, logistics and commercial department stores rose against the trend, while many other mainstream industries fell across the board.
In terms of the future market, the institution further analyzed that currently the stock index is still in the process of the second dip, and it still needs to pay close attention to whether it can stabilize effectively in the future. It is recommended that investors actively pay attention to the changes of policy, capital and external factors . It is expected that the Shanghai stock index is more likely to continue to explore and seek support in the short term, and the gem is more likely to fluctuate in the short term. Investors are advised to wait and see for a while in the short term and continue to pay attention to the investment opportunities of undervalued blue chips in the middle line.
Aijian securities mentioned that the market environment has also changed repeatedly in the short term, but the positive trend has not changed, so it is more patient to wait for . China’s epidemic has increased the pressure on the economy, but it has also strengthened the expectation of monetary policy, and the expectation of future liquidity is better. It plays a strong role in supporting the market in the short term, which is conducive to easing the pressure on performance. The market is expected to maintain the shock recovery pattern, with a small range, change space with time, and the game characteristics of stock funds remain unchanged. It is still to grasp structural trading opportunities. The main opportunity lies in the valuation repair after excessive pessimistic expectations in the early stage.
Guosheng Securities believes that the external geopolitical situation, the Fed’s expectation of raising interest rates and the impact of China’s epidemic have amplified the characteristics of normal market fluctuations. At present, the market is still in the bottom grinding stage and the verification period of stable growth policy, and the probability will continue to fluctuate. With the adjustment of the market, the risk is gradually released the implementation of steady growth policy may be the core driving force of the market . It is suggested to pay attention to position control, pay attention to the infrastructure and real estate sectors related to the main line of steady growth, the coal and chemical sectors under the logic of inflation, and the short-term active retail and prefabricated vegetable sectors of supermarkets.
Shanxi Securities Co.Ltd(002500) also said that the current market is facing multiple uncertainties. Under the background of complex macro environment at home and abroad, it is suggested to focus on large cap value stocks to resist risks and fluctuations . At the same time, the main line of steady growth has become increasingly clear and began to be sought after by funds. In the short term, the steady growth industrial chain boosted by precise policies, overweight and easing, and the upstream sector under the continuation of global high inflation may show better performance. In the medium and long term, the current major indexes are at historically low levels and have better cost performance. We will continue to pay attention to the boom inflection point of downstream consumption and growth after adjustment and grasp structural opportunities.
In the macro aspect, Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) pointed out that in March, affected by geopolitical factors, crude oil prices further rose month on month, which has begun to drive CPI higher than expected; In addition, international grain prices have also played a leading role in China’s grain prices. Recently, Jilin and other provinces have begun to promote the work of stabilizing spring ploughing. Therefore, it is expected that the grain prices will remain within a reasonable range during the year, although they may fluctuate slightly due to overseas supply; On the whole, suggests investors pay attention to the possible path of oil and grain prices driving CPI upward than expected during the year .
In March, industrial product prices rose further month on month, mainly concentrated in the upstream petroleum and petrochemical industry chain. Considering the expectation that the tail raising factors in the following months will continue to decline, if the crude oil price does not rise further significantly, the PPI year-on-year reading is expected to decline month by month, which may cover up the problem of profit pressure in the middle and lower reaches of the industry to a certain extent, and it is also worthy of special attention.
In terms of operational strategy, China Galaxy Securities Co.Ltd(601881) Securities said that focuses on short-term defense and long-term strategic allocation . Configuration suggestions: first, the resource products sector benefiting from the global energy shortage . The long-term tight supply and demand problem is still in place, and the profit certainty is strong. Driven by the economic recovery, there may be a rebound opportunity, and under the background of China’s infrastructure gradually developing, the black industry chain, such as ferrous metal and coal, will benefit.
second, the agricultural sector, especially the grain, planting and other sectors , the market is expected to continue with the support of the rapid rise of global food prices and the superposition of policies. The pig and chicken sectors are also of sustainable concern.
third, military industry, new energy, semiconductor and other industries with high prosperity and smooth logic and good long-term growth , can carry out strategic layout, long-term holding, bargain hunting and pay attention to the rhythm of investment.
What other boom has not been fully priced Huatai Securities Co.Ltd(601688) mentioned that Q1 high boom + annual performance inflection point + capital expenditure direction of strong cash flow sector .
1) the macro data from January to February shows that the prosperity of resource products, exports and high-tech industries is strong. The meso Huatai strategic prosperity index shows that the prosperity of Xudian, photovoltaic, digital infrastructure and CXO is upward, and the micro performance adjustment trend reflects the prosperity of resource products, but the prosperity of electricity, photovoltaic, medical services and bank Q1 is expected to exceed expectations: the common direction of the above logic sedans is energy central gold + grade power + photovoltaic + CXO + banks, of which banks and CXO may not be fully priced And the impact of the epidemic is relatively small;
2) the inflection point of annual report performance is the current or adjacent buildings, agriculture, food and beverage that are relatively less affected by the epidemic;
3) where the subsequent strong demand is located depends on who has the best cash flow and where the money will be used: the cash flow of central energy enterprises is the best. The demand for steady growth drives the expansion of their capital expenditure and drives the expansion of green power / solid waste treatment / renewable metal demand.
