Today (April 12), the opening of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets fluctuated. After the stock index fluctuated near yesterday's closing point at the beginning of the market, the stock index gradually dived and fell near the noon. With the great financial force, the stock index quickly rose and rose in the afternoon, and the rebound pattern was gradually obvious.
From the disk, the concept of "unified big market" was born, and the early market of other industries and concept sectors was weak. In the afternoon, securities companies protected the market, and the market gradually improved. Online games, tourism hotels, shipbuilding, wine and other sectors also performed prominently. In the concept of "unified big market", the limit of Jiangsu Xinning Modern Logistics Co.Ltd(300013) 20cm rises, and Pegasus international, Shanghai Shine-Link International Logistics Co.Ltd(603648) , Cmst Development Co.Ltd(600787) , China Railway Materials Company Limited(000927) , Zhangjiagang Freetrade Science & Technology Group Co.Ltd(600794) , etc. perform the limit tide.
Aijian securities mentioned that the market environment has also changed repeatedly in the short term, but the good trend has not changed, so it is more patient to wait at this time. China's epidemic has increased the pressure on the economy, but it has also strengthened the expectation of monetary policy, and the expectation of future liquidity is better.
At present, under the background of scattered A-share hotspots and intensified sector rotation, possible investment opportunities are hidden. Select some institutional research reports. Let's see what themes are available for reference.
[theme 1] unified market
Huafu Securities said that on April 10, the "opinions of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council on accelerating the construction of a national unified market" was officially released (hereinafter referred to as the "opinions"). The publication of the opinions means the arrival of the era of "great domestic demand" in China.
From the content of the opinions, we believe that the capital market can focus on the following two directions: first, pay attention to the market hard technology enterprise sector. With the release of opinions, capital and policy dividends will further gather in the field of hard technology in emerging industries. New energy, semiconductor, military and other leading enterprises deserve attention. Second, focus on leading commercial circulation enterprises and most enterprises targeting the national market. Opinions on further eliminating regional barriers and providing convenience for circulation enterprises. We can pay attention to leading enterprises in logistics, commerce and other sectors.
Among them, the "opinions" proposed to "promote the high standard connection of market facilities and build a modern circulation network". We believe that vigorously developing the logistics industry and promoting the cost reduction and efficiency increase of logistics in the whole society is an important part of building a modern circulation network. Breaking through the blocking points and breaking the local protection and market segmentation will help the smooth flow of commodity factor resources in a wider range. For the logistics industry, it means the further expansion of market space and the reduction of operating costs. According to the data of the Ministry of Commerce, in 2020, the total logistics cost of the whole society accounted for 14.7% of GDP, almost twice that of the United States and Japan, so there is much room for cost reduction and efficiency increase. In addition, the opinion points out that "support the construction of digital third-party logistics delivery platform", and the digital empowerment will help logistics enterprises become supply chain enterprises with global influence.
[Theme 2] tourist hotel
China Merchants Securities Co.Ltd(600999) pointed out that at present, the epidemic situation in some areas is still fermenting, which is expected to be controlled by the end of April, and the follow-up travel in May is expected to be concentrated. It is suggested to pay attention to the main line of epidemic repair. After the epidemic situation in Hotel catering, it will recover faster, the pattern will improve better, the elasticity will be stronger, and the benefit of the leader will be greater; Tax exemption benefits from the relaxation of China's tourism and the recovery of overseas passenger flow. The current valuation is at a historical low and will enter the extension cycle in the second half of the year. Recommendations: Shanghai Jin Jiang International Hotels Co.Ltd(600754) , Btg Hotels (Group) Co.Ltd(600258) , China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) .
BOC International said that the hotel industry continued to promote market recovery, leading enterprises accelerated the expansion of stores, and under the normalization of epidemic prevention and control, all groups actively developed new business models in order to break the situation; The number of trips and tourism income during the Qingming small and long holiday have decreased significantly due to the impact of the epidemic. Local short-distance travel has become the main consumer. The repeated epidemic has continued to put pressure on the industry, and the rhythm of residents' holiday tourism consumption may still be restrained in the short term; The Ministry of culture and tourism launched the "opinions on promoting the revitalization of rural areas enabled by cultural industry" to create new momentum for the recovery of culture and tourism; All walks of life increased the intensity of support measures for the catering industry to stabilize the recovery logic of the industry. Continue to recommend tax-free leading enterprises China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) ; Recommend Btg Hotels (Group) Co.Ltd(600258) , Shanghai Jin Jiang International Hotels Co.Ltd(600754) , China Cyts Tours Holding Co.Ltd(600138) , Songcheng Performance Development Co.Ltd(300144) , Jiangsu Tianmu Lake Tourism Co.Ltd(603136) , Lijiang tourism, Utour Group Co.Ltd(002707) , Guangzhou Lingnan Group Holdings Company Limited(000524) , and other hotels, scenic spots and comprehensive tourism service targets in the logic of cultural tourism restoration; Recommend Changbai Mountain Tourism Co.Ltd(603099) to release the benefit target of ice and snow tourism demand and Shanghai Yuyuan Tourist Mart (Group) Co.Ltd(600655) to focus on high-frequency consumption scenes and innovation target of life services.
[Theme 3] game
Zheshang Securities Co.Ltd(601878) mentioned that the game industry faces triple catalysts. For the first heavy catalyst, the version number is restarted to start the downward cycle of the sales expense rate. After the version number is restarted, the sales expense rate will enter the downward cycle of about 18 months. We can see that due to the suspension of the edition number, the number of new tours is small in the near future. Once a company obtains the edition number, it will obtain a higher ROI in purchase volume and marketing, driving the long-term decline of the company's marketing expense rate. However, with the gradual release of edition numbers, more new games and more crowded tracks, this bonus will gradually disappear. Based on our past experience, this cycle is about 18 months.
The second catalyst is the clearing of the supply side, which starts the downward cycle of R & D cost rate. We believe that with the peak of industry space and the tightening of game management by regulators, a large number of platform companies have abolished the game business, which will bring a significant clearing of the supply side. With the clearing of the supply side, the remuneration of practitioners will decline for a long time, driving the leading R & D expense rate of the industry to enter a downward cycle of 3 years or more.
The third catalyst, the exploding hand Swim to the sea. Overseas market space is vast, and going to sea has entered a period of rapid growth. At present, there are mainly two successful models. The first is the "distribution model" with efficient distribution as the core barrier, such as Wuhu 37 Interactive Entertainment Network Technology Group Co.Ltd(002555) ; The second is the "R & D model" with high-quality R & D as the core barrier. Representatives such as Tencent and Netease are optimistic about Netease from the perspective of stock price elasticity.
Tianfeng Securities Co.Ltd(601162) believes that the restart of the game version number is directly beneficial in the short term. For the game companies that get the version number to go online, it is more helpful to restore the industry confidence and stable growth expectation in the medium term. In the long term, as a high correlation industry of the meta universe, VR and AR have imagination space for reshaping the industrial space.
[theme 4] securities companies
BOC International securities mentioned that the deepening reform of the capital market continued to advance, the undervalued value was more firm and bullish on securities companies. The recent decline of securities companies is mainly affected by the overseas tightening expectation, the instability of the international situation, and the cooling of the A-share market and the public fund market. Despite the emotional fluctuations caused by changes in the external environment, the continued deepening reform of the capital market is good for securities companies in the long run.
The agency further analyzed and continued to recommend the trademarks of leading and financial management characteristic bonds in combination with favorable policies, performance differentiation and long-term growth drivers: 1) the reform of registration system is imminent, improve the marketization level of capital market, and bring more opportunities to head investment banks with strong comprehensive ability and their direct investment and follow-up business. Market fluctuations will lead to significant differentiation of investment business, and the trading mode of head securities companies is expected to bring more stable performance.
2) although market fluctuations may lead to a temporary decline in the scale of public fund management business and consignment business in the wealth management industry chain, residents' wealth continues to accumulate, the policy of "housing without speculation" is unswerving, and the growth trend of wealth management demand for maintaining and increasing residents' wealth remains unchanged, which can still bring long-term growth contributions to securities companies.
In addition, China Galaxy Securities Co.Ltd(601881) Securities said that the wealth management industry chain has broad development space under the new development stage. At present, China's economy has shifted to the high-quality development stage, with China's GDP exceeding 100 trillion yuan and per capita GDP exceeding US $1 trillion. Residents' wealth has accumulated rapidly, the scale of investable assets has increased rapidly, and the transformation of asset allocation from physical assets to financial assets has accelerated. With the positioning of the policy of "housing, housing and non speculation", the breaking of the rigid exchange of bank financial management, the acceleration of net worth transformation and the decline of interest rates, the increasing proportion of residents' equity asset allocation is a general trend, which brings growth space to the wealth management market. At the same time, the expansion of wealth management institutions, the continuous enrichment of products and the creation of more financial products to meet the needs of family wealth management in the market also contribute to the development and growth of the wealth management market. Big wealth management business is a medium - and long-term high-quality track for securities companies, and the business space of selling financial products on a commission basis, participating in and holding public funds, asset management and other businesses in the industrial chain is expanded.
In addition, the institutional business has a broad growth space and has become an important driving force for securities companies. The ecological transformation of the capital market and the emergence of the institutionalization trend provide opportunities for the development of the institutional business of securities companies. The business needs of institutional brokerage, sales, custody outsourcing, trading, risk prevention and control related to institutional customers have increased. The continuous release of policy dividends provides a favorable environment for securities companies to carry out institutional trading services. At the same time, the change of market investors, the development and growth of institutional investors, the improvement of market volatility, the growth of customer hedging, risk hedging and diversification strategy construction demand promote the development of institutional trading services. Head securities companies have benefited deeply by virtue of business qualification, capital strength, customer resources and risk control ability.
