Today (April 12), the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets as a whole showed a pattern of “want to be strong first, suppress first, bottom and rebound”. The three indexes were weak and volatile in the morning, but changed the downturn trend in the afternoon and began to accelerate the counterattack. Finally, the three indexes closed up.
In this regard, Aijian securities mentioned that the market environment has also changed repeatedly in the short term, but the positive trend has not changed, so it is more patient to wait at this time. China’s epidemic has increased the pressure on the economy, but it has also strengthened the expectation of monetary policy, and the expectation of future liquidity is better. It plays a strong role in supporting the market in the short term, which is conducive to easing the pressure on performance. The market is expected to maintain the shock recovery pattern, with a small range, change space with time, and the game characteristics of stock funds remain unchanged. It is still to grasp structural trading opportunities. The main opportunity lies in the valuation repair after excessive pessimistic expectations in the early stage.
At the same time, Western Securities Co.Ltd(002673) said that the structure focuses on: 1) express delivery, catering, tourism, airport aviation and media whose performance is expected to improve after the epidemic; 2) With the gradual warming of inflation expectations, inflation related agriculture and mandatory consumption sectors; 3) The annual report and the first quarterly report honor the phased repair of the leading boom track (new energy, semiconductor, medicine, military industry, etc.) with high certainty.
sector:
I. tourist hotels
China Merchants Securities Co.Ltd(600999) pointed out that at present, the epidemic situation in some areas is still fermenting, which is expected to be controlled by the end of April, and the follow-up travel in May is expected to be concentrated. It is suggested to pay attention to the main line of epidemic repair. After the epidemic situation in Hotel catering, it will recover faster, the pattern will improve better, the elasticity will be stronger, and the benefit of the leader will be greater; Tax exemption benefits from the relaxation of China’s tourism and the recovery of overseas passenger flow. The current valuation is at a historical low and will enter the extension cycle in the second half of the year. Recommendations: Shanghai Jin Jiang International Hotels Co.Ltd(600754) , Btg Hotels (Group) Co.Ltd(600258) , China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) .
BOC International said that the hotel industry continued to promote market recovery, leading enterprises accelerated the expansion of stores, and under the normalization of epidemic prevention and control, all groups actively developed new business models in order to break the situation; The number of trips and tourism income during the Qingming small and long holiday have decreased significantly due to the impact of the epidemic. Local short-distance travel has become the main consumer. The repeated epidemic has continued to put pressure on the industry, and the rhythm of residents’ holiday tourism consumption may still be restrained in the short term; The Ministry of culture and tourism launched the “opinions on promoting the revitalization of rural areas enabled by cultural industry” to create new momentum for the recovery of culture and tourism; All walks of life increased the intensity of support measures for the catering industry to stabilize the recovery logic of the industry. Continue to recommend tax-free leading enterprises China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) ; Recommend Btg Hotels (Group) Co.Ltd(600258) , Shanghai Jin Jiang International Hotels Co.Ltd(600754) , China Cyts Tours Holding Co.Ltd(600138) , Songcheng Performance Development Co.Ltd(300144) , Jiangsu Tianmu Lake Tourism Co.Ltd(603136) , Lijiang tourism, Utour Group Co.Ltd(002707) , Guangzhou Lingnan Group Holdings Company Limited(000524) , and other hotels, scenic spots and comprehensive tourism service targets in the logic of cultural tourism restoration; Recommend Changbai Mountain Tourism Co.Ltd(603099) to release the benefit target of ice and snow tourism demand and Shanghai Yuyuan Tourist Mart (Group) Co.Ltd(600655) to focus on high-frequency consumption scenes and innovation target of life services.
II. Brewing industry
China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) mentioned that the marketing reform of Maotai has been continuously promoted recently. We expect that the company will increase its digital marketing and use its own e-commerce platform and other channels to improve the transparency and fairness of wine purchase. At the same time, this is also an important part of the “five in one marketing law” 1 proposed by the company Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) and Laojiao have gradually entered the stage of controlling goods and supporting prices, which reflects the company’s brand confidence, and the company continues to strengthen the accurate delivery of channels and reduce the number of problem dealers and terminals Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) successively raised the dealer payment price and terminal supply price of Guojiao, which are being implemented gradually all over the country. In addition, it is suggested to pay attention to companies that are less affected by the epidemic and are expected to make a good start in the first quarter, such as Gujing, kouzi, Fenjiu, etc.
Huachang Securities pointed out that Baijiu Q1 index outstanding indicators, channel performance is healthy, strong performance support, although the short-term focus of the market is Moutai’s price decline on the demand boom and channel confidence, but the leading line of value has been displayed, Moutai’s report acceleration, certainty scarcity, product line more abundant, and mutual trust with the capital market to enhance, is the first choice. Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) it is suggested to pay attention to the introduction and implementation of targeted market policies. In the long run, the 1000 yuan price band is still the largest brand, and Laojiao continues to recommend it. In the short term, it is recommended to focus on the verification of individual stocks in the quarterly report, focusing on Fenjiu, Huijiu Gujing, sujiu Yanghe and Jiangsu King’S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) . Expanding liquor enterprises are concerned about the willingness to maintain high elasticity in the decline of valuation.
Changjiang Securities Company Limited(000783) said that according to the 2021 Baijiu notice and the 1-2 month business situation in 2022, combined with the data of Liquor Enterprises above Designated Size, the two main trends of liquor industry development, such as head concentration and consumption upgrading, are still continuing. From the historical experience, the long-term development trend of the industry will not be broken by short-term external factors. Therefore, we think that the main line of Baijiu industry will remain unchanged in the future. We will mainly recommend five high-end Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) , Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) , Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(002304) , Anhui Gujing Distillery Company Limited(000596) , Jiangsu King’S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) and so on.
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