Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co.Ltd(000792) resumed listing after delisting last year, with the highest share price reaching 45.65 yuan. Within three years, the cumulative maximum increase of share price is nearly 742% , with the current total market value reaching 166 billion yuan.
Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co.Ltd(000792) announced that the net profit in the first quarter is expected to be 3.45-3.55 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 334.98% – 347.59%.
It is worth noting that the company’s net profit in the first quarter is expected to reach a record high, month on month growth of 523% – 541% . Meanwhile, Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co.Ltd(000792) the annual net profit in 2021 was 4.268 billion yuan, while the net profit in the first quarter was close to that of last year .
As soon as the announcement was made, shareholders talked about it one after another. Some people think that “the reasonable market value is 300 billion”, while others think that “the performance rises and the share price falls”.
As of today, a total of 11 institutions have predicted the performance of Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co.Ltd(000792) in 2022 within 6 months, of which the estimated average net profit attributable to parent company is 8.153 billion yuan. After hours, it was announced that the highest actual forecast value for the first quarter was 3.55 billion yuan, accounting for 43.54% of the average forecast value of institutions, nearly half .
Talking about the reasons for its performance growth, Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co.Ltd(000792) said that the production and sales of potassium chloride, the company’s main business, were stable, with an output of about 1.14 million tons and a sales volume of about 1.45 million tons; The output of lithium carbonate is about 7000 tons and the sales volume is about 6700 tons. During the reporting period, the market price of potassium chloride and lithium carbonate products increased , and the company’s performance increased significantly compared with the same period of last year.
Public information shows that Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co.Ltd(000792) is the earliest and largest potassium chloride production enterprise of in China, and relies on resource advantages to layout salt lake lithium extraction. All businesses of the company are carried out by each holding subsidiary respectively. Among them, the potash fertilizer sector includes Yuantong potash fertilizer, Sanyuan potash fertilizer, Jingda technology and other companies, and the lithium sector is dominated by Lanke lithium industry.
Coincidentally, zangge mining, which is also mainly engaged in potassium chloride + lithium carbonate today also released a performance forecast for the first quarter. It is estimated that the net profit in the first quarter of 2022 will be 780830 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 208.15% – 227.90%.
China is the world’s largest potash fertilizer demander, with an external dependence of more than 50%. From the perspective of production enterprises, China’s main potash fertilizer production enterprises are Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co.Ltd(000792) , Zangge Holding Company Limited(000408) , accounting for 87.3% of China’s potash fertilizer production capacity.
According to the research report released by Li zizhuo of East Asia Qianhai securities on February 18, it is precisely because China can meet about 50% of the demand through its own potash fertilizer that China has become a global potash fertilizer price depression .
Li zizhuo pointed out that Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co.Ltd(000792) has an annual production capacity of 5 million tons of potassium fertilizer, ranking first in China and fourth in the world . At present, the international price of potassium chloride is high and rising under the influence of sanctions and other factors in Belarus. Therefore, it is expected that China’s potassium chloride Market will remain highly prosperous , the potassium chloride business will contribute huge profits to the company, and will become the ballast for the company’s performance growth .
In terms of lithium carbonate, Li zizhuo said that with the improvement of the prosperity of the new energy industry, the company’s entry into the new energy field will bring double growth of “performance” and “valuation” open the second growth curve .
Public data show that China’s potash resources are seriously insufficient, which belongs to one of the nine kinds of mineral resources in serious shortage in China, with an external dependence of more than 50%. Chaerhan Salt Lake is the second largest salt lake in the world, with a total salt resource reserve of more than 60 billion tons, the third largest lithium brine resource in the world, and the lithium chloride reserve of 12.042 million tons, ranking first in China. Among them, Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co.Ltd(000792) subsidiary Lanke lithium has lithium salt reserves of more than 8 million tons, and zangge mining also has mining areas located in Chaerhan Salt Lake
According to the research report released by Qiu Zuxue of Minsheng securities on April 8, the strategy of China’s local lithium resources is highlighted. Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co.Ltd(000792) has formed a “1 + 2 + 3” salt lake lithium extraction project, which may support the large-scale expansion of lithium extraction capacity in the future. The company will undertake the important task of ensuring China’s lithium resources. According to the profit forecast and valuation calculation, the year-on-year growth rate of the company’s net profit attributable to the parent company in 2022 is expected to be 135.8%, and the year-on-year growth rate of net profit attributable to the parent company in 2023 has plunged sharply to 15%, less than the fraction of that in 2022 .
In recent years, the environmental protection department has paid more and more attention to the ecological protection of the salt lake. At the same time, the exploitation of Chaerhan Salt Lake in China has lasted for more than 70 years. There may be signs of resource shrinkage and production decline in some salt lake areas.
