Record! Set a multi-year record! The highest since the data!
With the release of the monthly consumer price index (CPI), the word "record" appears frequently.
Multi Country monthly CPI hit a record high
Recently, South Korea's Statistics Department released data that South Korea's CPI rose 4.1% year-on-year in March, a new high since December 2011.
Earlier, the data released by the French National Bureau of statistics showed that the CPI of France in March increased by 4.5% year-on-year and 1.4% month on month, the highest since the 1980sP align = "center" French CPI data. Screenshot from the French National Bureau of statistics.
The CPI of Germany, which is adjacent to France, rose 7.3% year-on-year in March, much higher than economists' expectations, with the initial value of 2.5% month on month, a new high since the data record.
Moreover, Eurostat data show that the annual inflation rate in the eurozone was 7.5% in March, a record, which is the fifth consecutive month of record inflation in the eurozone.
If the time goes back to February, the UK CPI will rise by 6.2% year-on-year, the highest in nearly 30 years. Us CPI rose 7.9% year-on-year in February, the largest year-on-year increase since January 1982.
the rise in energy and food prices is the "main reason"
When analyzing the reasons for the rise of CPI, many countries pointed out that the high CPI is directly related to the rise of energy prices.
For example, the price of petroleum products in South Korea rose 31.2% in March, exceeding 30% again after four months. Among them, gasoline rose 27.4%, diesel rose 37.9%, and vehicle liquefied petroleum gas rose 20.4%.
Recently, the situation in Ukraine is tense, the market supply continues to be blocked, and the crude oil price remains high. In early March, the price of Brent crude oil futures once soared nearly 140 US dollars / barrel.
Another major factor in the high CPI of many countries is food prices. For example, the CPI data of France in March showed that food prices rose faster than expected, and the price of fresh Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) continued to rise.
This has also been confirmed by the food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations.
The report released by the food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations on April 8 showed that the impact of the crisis in Ukraine spread throughout the main grain and vegetable oil markets, leading to a sharp jump in world food commodity prices to an all-time high in March. Among them, the world wheat price soared by 19.7%. In addition, the price of corn increased by 19.1% month on month, hitting a record high together with the prices of barley and sorghum.
Multi Country CPI forecast for 2022 increase
From the feedback of government departments and the market, the phenomenon of high international energy and food prices will not change in a short time.
For example, the USDA's updated March food price outlook report shows that all food prices are expected to rise by 4.5% to 5.5% in 2022. With the exception of fresh vegetables, the forecasts for almost all food categories have increased.
A Finnish Applied Economic Research Institute (PTT) predicts that food prices in Finland will rise by 11% in 2022, much higher than the overall inflation level.
In terms of energy, from April 1, the UK energy regulator Ofgem raised the average use limit per household from £ 1277 to £ 1971.
According to foreign media reports, Andrew Bailey, governor of the Bank of England, said that the country is facing the biggest single impact on energy prices since the 1970s. This is the biggest increase since the introduction of the price ceiling of Ofgem. But official forecasters and analysts also warned that the next cap, when it comes into effect in October, should be ready for another sharp rise in energy bills.
Under the sudden change of international environment, the annual CPI forecast value of many countries is facing upward revision. For example, the Bank of Thailand recently raised its CPI growth forecast for 2022 from 1.7% to 4.9%, higher than the annual inflation target range of 1% to 3%; The Reserve Bank of India also raised its CPI forecast, which is expected to increase by an average of 5.7% in fiscal 2023, higher than the 4.5% forecast in February. (end)
