This week, the performance of textile and clothing sector was stronger than that of the market, and the performance of medical and beauty cosmetics sector was weaker than that of the market. From April 1 to April 8: 1) Shenwan textile and clothing index decreased by 1.11%, stronger than Shenwan a index by 0.63 PCT Among them, Shenwan clothing and home textile index decreased by 1.62%, stronger than Shenwan a index by 0.11pct; Shenwan textile manufacturing index decreased by 1.55%, stronger than Shenwan a index by 0.19pct 2) Shenwan beauty care index decreased by 3.52%, weaker than Shenwan a index of 1.78pct.
Textile clothing: 1) clothing: the rebound of the epidemic has seriously affected the brand’s omni-channel sales, and the growth certainty of sports and functional clothing is the strongest. Recently, the local epidemic has repeatedly spread, and the brand terminal retail and online sales have been greatly impacted. Since the beginning of the year, the terminal flow of leading sports and functional clothing companies has maintained a high growth trend, highlighting strong fundamentals. It is expected that after the epidemic eases, compensatory consumption will continue to release, and residents will pay more attention to sports under the improvement of health awareness, and continue to be optimistic about the high prosperity track of sportswear. 2) Textile: the outlook of the first quarterly report of the leading manufacturer is generally good The performance of Huali Industrial Group Company Limited(300979) 21 years confirms that the upstream production and sales are booming, and the business volume and price of sports shoes are rising at the same time. In 22 years, the production capacity of Vietnamese factories has accelerated climbing, the expansion of old factories has continued to increase production flexibly, and lean production has improved the efficiency of factories. We have actively deployed the expansion of production in Indonesia, Myanmar and other places, and there will be a huge capacity space in the future. Looking forward to 22q1, it is expected that the leading performance of sports manufacturing and cotton wool textile industry chain will be high and the growth can be expected.
Cosmetics medical beauty: the cosmetics industry continued to differentiate in March, and the Q1 performance of the leading company is expected to maintain a high growth. In March, sales tiktok sales increased 22 yoy, of which the beauty and skin care ring was lower than the double digit growth rate, and the cosmetic ring ratio slightly declined. According to sub brands, the sales of Tmall tiktok combined with sales in March varied significantly, and brands continued to differentiate. On the whole, the Q1 performance of leading companies maintained high growth and had high certainty.
Key review this week:
Prospect of the first quarter report performance of the textile and clothing industry in 2022: the retail of textile and clothing slightly exceeded expectations from January to February, and the epidemic in March affected the terminal demand. High growth is concentrated in the upstream of the industrial chain. In the short term, manufacturing is still stronger than brand. The sharp rise in raw material prices tests the ability of cost transfer, benefiting the upstream and differentiating the midstream. The high growth of 22q1 performance is still concentrated in the middle and upper reaches, but the current screening of textile leaders pays more attention to the elimination of cycle benefits, and there is still growth. At the same time, it also suggests the opportunity of low-level layout of brand leaders. Recommend sports and functional clothing brands, sports supply chain manufacturing leaders, cotton and wool textile sub industry chain champions, and home textile brand leaders.
Prospect of the first quarterly report of the cosmetics medical and beauty industry in 2022: the demand of the cosmetics industry is strong, and the leading enterprises maintain rapid growth. The epidemic suppresses the flow level of medical and American customers, the enthusiasm of terminal consumption remains unchanged, and the standardized development of the industry under strong supervision will help to further improve the concentration of leading companies. We are optimistic about the long-term growth space of cosmetics industry with strong demand and medical and beauty industry with high growth rate and low penetration rate. In the short term, cosmetics companies have a high online penetration rate. The leading companies have excellent operating data from January to February, adding 3.8 to promote sales, laying a good foundation for their Q1 performance. Although Yimei is affected by the epidemic, it has laid a good foundation in the early stage of Q1. It is expected that Q1 will maintain high growth, and the current valuation of the company is lower than that of overseas companies, so it is necessary to grasp the opportunity of leading low-level layout.
Huali Industrial Group Company Limited(300979) 2021 annual report comments: in 2021, the company achieved a revenue of 17.47 billion yuan (25.4%) and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 2.77 billion yuan (47.3%). After excluding the impact of exchange rate changes, the revenue increased by 34.1% and the net profit increased by 57.6%.
With high performance in the past 21 years, the production and sales of additional printing certificates are booming, the demand for order growth of existing customers is strong, and the development space of potential customers is broad. Looking forward to 22 years, three new Vietnamese factories will be opened in 21 years, and the production capacity will climb rapidly. In 22 years, the company will contribute to the main increment. The expansion of old factories will continue to increase production flexibly, and lean production will improve the efficiency of the factory. We expect the annual sales volume of 22 to increase by nearly 20%. On the demand side, the orders of main brand customers are strong, and the newly expanded customers will become a new growth point. We are optimistic that the company will be promoted to the world’s largest professional manufacturer of sports shoes in the future. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company will be RMB 3.51/42.9/5.16 billion in 22-24 years, maintaining the buy rating.
Investment analysis opinion: the high growth elasticity in the first quarter is still expected to focus on the textile manufacturing end, which also highlights that the spring has ushered in a cost-effective layout opportunity for the sports apparel, cosmetics, medical and beauty sectors. Recommendation: 1) clothing and home textile: Anta sports, Biem.L.Fdlkk Garment Co.Ltd(002832) , it is suggested to pay attention to Li Ning and Bosideng; 2) Cosmetic medical beauty: Imeik Technology Development Co.Ltd(300896) , Yunnan Botanee Bio-Technology Group Co.Ltd(300957) , Bloomage Biotechnology Corporation Limited(688363) , Proya Cosmetics Co.Ltd(603605) ; 3) Textile manufacturing: Huali Industrial Group Company Limited(300979) , Zhejiang Sunrise Garment Group Co.Ltd(605138) , Bros Eastern Co.Ltd(601339) , it is suggested to pay attention to Shenzhou International, Zhejiang Xinao Textiles Inc(603889) , Wuhu Fuchun Dye And Weave Co.Ltd(605189) .
Risk warning: industry competition intensifies the risk; Covid-19 epidemic affected the continued weakness of end consumer demand, and the performance was lower than expected.
