Current investment tips:
IEA officially announced the release of 120 million barrels of crude oil reserves, and oil prices continued to fall. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine continued this week. The IEA announced the release of 120 million barrels of oil reserves, alleviating supply side concerns and driving down oil prices. The International Energy Agency (IEA) announced on Thursday that its 19 member states would release a total of 120 million barrels of oil reserves in the next six months: of which the United States released about 60.56 million barrels, including 180 million barrels of oil reserves announced last week. The joint release commitment of IEA and the United States is expected to contribute a total of 240 million barrels of oil reserves from May to October this year, equivalent to about 1.33 million barrels / day. According to the data of the Russian Ministry of energy, Russia’s crude oil production in the first week of April was 10.52 million barrels / day, down 4.5% from the average production in March. In the short term: in the next six months, the United States and IEA will successfully release 1.33 million barrels / day of oil reserves, which can alleviate the Russian crude oil supply gap to a certain extent; However, if OPEC + does not adjust the production baseline in May and the progress of Iran nuclear negotiations is lower than expected, the gap between crude oil supply and demand will continue to expand with the economic recovery.
U.S. crude oil inventories rebounded, the number of wells increased, and the operating rate of refineries increased. The US commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic oil reserves) was 412 million barrels, an increase of 2.42 million barrels over the previous week, and the crude oil inventory was about 14% lower than that in the same period of the past five years; The total gasoline inventory in the United States was 237 million barrels, down 2.04 million barrels from the previous week, and the gasoline inventory was about 1% lower than the same period in the past five years; The inventory of distillate oil was 114 million barrels, an increase of 770000 barrels over the previous week, and the inventory was about 15% lower than that in the same period of the past five years; Propane / propylene inventories increased by 670000 barrels. The US strategic oil reserve was 565 million barrels, down 3.74 million barrels. Total US commercial inventories increased by 5.19 million barrels. The total processing volume of refineries in the United States averaged 15.948 million barrels per day, an increase of 35000 barrels over the previous week; The operating rate of the refinery was 92.5%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points over the previous week. Last week, US crude oil imports averaged 6.3 million barrels a day, an increase of 40000 barrels over the previous week. On April 1, US crude oil production was 11.8 million barrels per day, an increase of 100000 barrels per day compared with the previous week and 900000 barrels per day compared with a year ago. On April 8, there were 546 oil production rigs in the United States, 13 more than last week and 209 more than last year.
Ethylene and PX prices rebounded, while propylene and PTA fell. Ethylene prices in Northeast Asia continued to rise. By April 7, ethylene prices in Northeast Asia closed at US $1380 / ton, up US $10 / ton month on month. During the week, China’s ethylene production was 766200 tons, down 2.31% on a weekly basis. Propylene prices in Northeast Asia fell month on month. As of April 7, propylene CFR China closed at US $1165 / ton, down US $15 / ton from the previous week. Downstream related products, polypropylene and n-butanol decreased slightly, while octanol and propylene oxide strengthened slightly. PX price trend rebounded. On April 6, the closing price of Asian PX market was 119267 US dollars / ton, up 6.34 US dollars / ton on a weekly basis. During the week, the average operating rate of PX in China was 68%, the average operating rate in Asia was 66.62%, and the operating rate in China decreased week on week. From January 24, 2022, Fujian United will add 150000 tons of PX units, and China’s production capacity will be 31.74 million tons. PTA prices stopped rising and turned down. In the week of April 7, the average weekly price of PTA spot in East China was 612375 yuan / ton, down 31.85 yuan / ton on a weekly basis. During the week, China’s PTA output was 1028800 tons, down 8300 tons from the previous week. The weekly output of downstream polyester was 1.6111 million tons, down 1.90% from the previous week. By April 7, the operating rate of chemical fiber weaving in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was 46.43%, with a decrease of 17.12 percentage points.
Investment analysis opinions: 1) from the perspective of competitiveness, profit stability and capacity investment integration, Rongsheng Petro Chemical Co.Ltd(002493) , Hengli Petrochemical Co.Ltd(600346) , Jiangsu Eastern Shenghong Co.Ltd(000301) , Tongkun Group Co.Ltd(601233) , Hengyi Petrochemical Co.Ltd(000703) . 2) From the perspective of cost advantage of ethane to ethylene and benefit of propylene industry chain, satellite chemistry is recommended. 3) The rebound of oil price, the cost advantage and long-term growth of coal chemical industry are recommended Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group Co.Ltd(600989) . 4) The flexibility of the sharp rise in oil prices. At the same time, from the perspective of reducing capital expenditure in overseas upstream and increasing energy security in China, it is suggested to pay attention to Petrochina Company Limited(601857) , Guanghui Energy Co.Ltd(600256) , China Oilfield Services Limited(601808) , Offshore Oil Engineering Co.Ltd(600583) , Enn Natural Gas Co.Ltd(600803) , China Petroleum Engineering Corporation(600339) , Bomesc Offshore Engineering Company Limited(603727) , etc.
Risk tip: geopolitical impact; Price fluctuation of petroleum and chemicals; Economic downside risk; Global epidemic impact.
