Current investment tips:
1. Household: the expectation of stable growth of short-term real estate drives the improvement of valuation; In the long run, the leading retail power has improved and the market share has been integrated. In the short term, the marginal improvement in the direction of real estate policy has driven the repair on the valuation beta in the post real estate cycle.
Following the positive attitude of six departments to maintain stability, the interest rate of housing loans in many places across the country has been reduced, and the purchase and sale restrictions have been relaxed. The valuation of the home industry is expected to be repaired. The interest rate of housing loans in many places across the country has been reduced. In March of 22, the first house loan interest rate in China decreased by 13bp month on month, the second house loan interest rate decreased by 15bp month on month, and bank lending continued to accelerate. Since March, some cities such as Quzhou, Qinhuangdao, Harbin and Zhengzhou have liberalized the requirements of sales and purchase restrictions. China’s steady growth expectation remains unchanged. The real estate policy ensures the just needed and reasonable housing demand from the supply side and demand side, and continues to improve marginally. The medium and long-term home demand will be supported, and the home industry is expected to improve by the beta expectation.
Looking forward to the medium and long-term growth anchor, the leading enterprises will continue to seize the share by virtue of concentration + customer unit value. The retail capacity of the industry is divided, and the leading enterprises continue to seize the share. Leading household enterprises have gradually transitioned from single product competition to the era of whole house marketing. Through the improvement of supply chain capacity and the improvement of channel multi category operation capacity, it is expected to realize the continuous improvement of customer unit price and market share. The 315 whole house marketing package activity plan of the leading enterprise tests the company’s scheme design, product pricing, efficient production efficiency of self-made products, and the ability of external supply chain construction and integration. The complexity of service operation of terminal channels has also increased significantly, including the understanding of the whole house product system, integrated distribution service delivery capacity, etc. Companies with strong supply chain integration and channel service delivery capabilities will seize more market share in the whole house competition in the future.
2. The high-quality white horse with optimized competition pattern and stable profit growth returns to the strategic layout period. 1) under the upward background of [Chenguang] raw materials, the company is optimistic about the consumption of white horse with pricing power and anti inflation. With the optimization of channel structure and the upgrading of product structure, the company has gradually hedged the impact of external double reduction and epidemic situation, and the valuation has been digested to the bottom range of historical valuation. Pay attention to the 2021 annual report of Chenguang shares and comment on the deepening of the strategy of one body and two wings, the growth toughness of traditional core business, and the continued high growth of business of kelip and large retail stores.
2) [ Shenzhen Yuto Packaging Technology Co.Ltd(002831) ] in addition to the original 3C packaging track, accelerate the layout of cigarette labels, wine bags, environmental protection packaging and other markets, create a new growth curve, and expand more revenue categories and tracks than expected; The integration trend of paper packaging leaders appears. With the gradual improvement of the profit margin of new products and the automation efficiency of intelligent factories, the profitability is expected to gradually recover.
3. Papermaking: the price of wood pulp continues to rise, which promotes the price rise of pulp and paper. In this round of market, it is preferred to select the subdivided high-quality track leaders with good supply and demand and competition pattern, which can continuously transmit the cost pressure, such as [ Hangzhou Huawang New Material Technology Co.Ltd(605377) ]; In the cost upward period, fully benefit from the cost advantage of self-produced (or group) wood pulp, and the profit per ton is improved upward, such as [ Shandong Sun Paper Co.Ltd(002078) ]. Pay attention to the published follow-up in-depth report on the paper industry, “the price of wood pulp continues to rise, promote the price rise of pulp and paper varieties, and optimize the good track and good leader”.
4. Update of e-cigarettes in China:
Various detailed rules of the new regulations have been issued intensively to guide the orderly operation and long-term development of the industry as a whole:
Recently, the state tobacco monopoly administration has issued to Provincial Tobacco Monopoly bureaus and other institutions several policies and measures on regulating the development of e-cigarette industry (for Trial Implementation), detailed rules for the administration of investment in fixed assets of e-cigarette, detailed rules for the implementation of technical review of e-cigarette products, detailed rules for the Administration of traceability of e-cigarette products, and guiding opinions on the layout and license management of e-cigarette retail outlets Detailed provisions on supply and demand pricing, market supervision, investment and financing, technological innovation, product traceability, etc. Since the State Tobacco Monopoly Administration officially issued the measures for the administration of e-cigarettes on March 11, various policies and rules have been intensively issued, reflecting the state’s determination to standardize the operation of the e-cigarette industry. From the perspective of the policy tone, it will guide the rational layout, industrial upgrading, orderly operation and long-term development of e-cigarette enterprises as a whole.
Risk tip: repeated epidemics, sluggish overall downstream demand and blocked logistics, and profit pressure caused by the rise of raw materials.
