Report summary:
Last Friday (20220408), the average selling price of Sanyuan pigs abroad was 12.48 yuan / kg, up 0.16% from Friday of the previous week. Last Friday (20220408), the average selling price of 15kg foreign Sanyuan piglets was 26.06 yuan / kg, up 1.52% from Friday of the previous week. Last week, the average price of pigs rose month on month, but the trend showed a downward trend within the week. At the weekend of the previous week, 40000 tons of pork were collected and stored, and all transactions were not sold out. Combined with the boost of the Qingming small and long holiday, the pig price rose slightly during the holiday. However, the covid-19 epidemic in Shanghai and other places spilled recently, involving many provinces and cities, and the catering consumption decreased. On the last day of the holiday, the pig price fell again. The boosting effect of collection and storage also appeared to be insufficient under the strong pressure of oversupply, and the decline of pig price showed signs of increasing in the second half of the week. It is expected that during the first half of April, the overall price of large pigs will be weak again, and the probability of adjustment will increase. The overall market is still dominated by the trend of limited rise and fall shock adjustment, and the shock will continue to grind the bottom, but there are signs of gradual and slow upward movement of the price focus. On April 9, the national development and Reform Commission announced that it would carry out the collection and storage of the fourth batch of central frozen pork reserves during the year, and plans to collect and store another 40000 tons of frozen pork in the near future. At the same time, provinces and cities are also carrying out pork collection and storage.
We believe that although the short-term market has some differences on capacity expectations, we believe that under the continuous loss of the industry, the trend of capacity removal is highly deterministic, and the accumulation momentum of capacity removal will eventually lead to the arrival of the turning point of the cycle. At the current time point, we continue to focus on the pig breeding sector.
We believe that the industry has different opinions on the inflection point recently, and we still maintain the judgment of the arrival of q2-q3 inflection point. There has been a correction in the sector recently, and the companies in the ab initio average market value dimension are in the bottom range, while the performance is low, and the market has been fully expected, so there is no need to worry too much. At this stage, we continue to recommend breeding head enterprises that have obvious advantages in cost control, followed by second-line and small American Standard enterprises that focus on Dilemma reversal, large cost improvement expectation and certainty of listing growth. Highlight Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) , Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) , Tecon Biology Co.Ltd(002100) , Beijing Dabeinong Technology Group Co.Ltd(002385) , etc.
Market review:
In the sub industries of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery last week (2022040420220408), the weekly increases and decreases were as follows: animal health care – 2.89%, planting – 3.56%, Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) processing – 3.92%, feed – 3.93%, livestock and poultry breeding – 5.74% and fishery – 6.28%. Last week (2022040420220408), the top five companies in the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery industry were: 6 Kingnet Network Co.Ltd(002517) .92%, Shandong Bailong Chuangyuan Bio-Tech Co.Ltd(605016) 7.89%, ST Huaying 5.22%, Sdic Zhonglu Fruit Juice Co.Ltd(600962) 4.68%, ST Chinese capital 3.43%; The top five companies are: Angel Yeast Co.Ltd(600298) -9.65%, Jiangsu Lihua Animal Husbandry Co.Ltd(300761) -10.71%, Zhanjiang Guolian Aquatic Products Co.Ltd(300094) -10.81%, Zhongnongfa Seed Industry Group Co.Ltd(600313) -12.13%, Fujian Wanchen Biotechnology Co.Ltd(300972) -17.98%.
Key tracking:
1. Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) released the pig sales briefing in March
Event: on April 7, Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) released a pig sales briefing in March. The company sold 5.986 million pigs in March, with a sales revenue of 7.432 billion yuan. In March, the average selling price of the company’s commercial pigs was 11.67 yuan / kg, down 5.74% from January to February.
Key recommendations:
A key recommendation for the focus of a key recommendation of Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) \ , Wuhan Keqian Biology Co.Ltd(688526) risk tips: the risk of livestock and poultry price fluctuation, the impact of extreme weather, the impact of animal diseases, etc.
