Plate review
Last week’s performance: from April 6 to April 8, most of shenwanyi industries fell, among which electronics, power equipment, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery fell the most, with a decline of 4.67%, 4.68% and 4.72% respectively; Building decoration, steel and building materials increased the most, with increases of 6.06%, 3.97% and 3.93% respectively; Power equipment ranked the second lowest, with a decrease of 4.68%.
The top 10 stocks of the new energy sector that saw the new energy sector last week last week last week last week are among the top 10 stocks that saw the new energy sector rising in the new energy sector last week. The top 10 stocks of the new energy sector that saw the new energy sector last week last week. The top 10 stocks of the new energy sector that last week last week are: 600474747 Hunan Corun New Energy Co.Ltd(600478) \ (7.31%), Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co.Ltd(000792) (6.13%), Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) (5.16%). The top ten stocks that fall in the top ten of the top ten stocks are: Jiangsu Zhongli Group Co.Ltd(002309) (- 12.34%), Shandong Fengyuan Chemical Co.Ltd(002805) (- 12.81%), Ningbo Ronbay New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(688005) (- 13.64%).
Core viewpoints and investment suggestions of new energy vehicles
From the upstream resource end of the industrial chain, the price of battery grade lithium carbonate, as the main cost item of lithium battery, has loosened slightly recently, falling to 500000 yuan / ton from 502500 yuan / ton on April 1. The reasons may be: 1. There is an expectation of release of production capacity at the supply end. For example, Sunresin New Materials Co.Ltd Xi’An(300487) and Argentina PNN company develop the battery grade lithium carbonate project of Argentina Salta Salt Lake based on brine direct lifting technology, which is expected to significantly improve the development cycle of Argentina’s extremely rich lithium resources in salt lakes and improve the efficiency cost ratio of resource development units. The project is also another brine direct lifting project after the 10000 ton lithium carbonate technical transformation project of Minmetals Salt Lake and the Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) 10000 ton lithium carbonate EPC procurement project. Another example is that Shenzhen Hekeda Precision Cleaning Equipment Co.Ltd(002816) company of Salt Lake Group is gradually reaching full production capacity of 30000 tons in phase I and phase II of Chaerhan Salt Lake in Qinghai Salt Lake, and Byd Company Limited(002594) and salt lake group are expected to cooperate on the design capacity of 30000 tons of lithium carbonate after the pilot plant is progressing smoothly. The supply and release of lithium resources is expected to be launched one after another to alleviate the supply pressure; 2. Affected by the recent epidemic, many car enterprises have suspended production and blocked logistics. As of April 10, FAW Volkswagen, FAW Toyota, FAW Pentium, FAW Hongqi, SAIC Volkswagen, SAIC GM, Tesla and other vehicle factories in Changchun, Shenyang and Shanghai have not determined the resumption time, or are in a small amount of production under closed-loop management. Weilai automobile also said on April 9 that the whole vehicle production was suspended due to the interruption of the supply chain. Q2 vehicle sales may be impacted, which will have an impact on the demand for upstream resources; 3. Since Q1, the price increase of upstream raw materials has not been small, and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has exacerbated the upstream cost pressure, which has led the midstream battery enterprises to increase the sales price and many vehicle manufacturers to increase the price of terminal products one after another. The price increase may weaken the demand acquisition stage by stage and react on the demand for upstream lithium resources; 4. In the middle of last month, due to the continued high price of lithium resources, which may affect the healthy operation of the industrial chain, the raw materials department of the Ministry of industry and information technology, the price department of the national development and Reform Commission, the General Administration of market supervision and the Anti Unfair Competition Bureau and other ministries and commissions held a symposium to discuss the problem of maintaining the supply and price of lithium resources, or guide the lithium price to return to rationality, and accelerate the approval of China’s subsequent lithium mining. Generally speaking, there is price game behavior in the upstream / downstream of the industrial chain under the current situation. The subsequent trend judgment of lithium resource price still needs to pay attention to the actual expansion progress of lithium resources and the demand of downstream vehicles.
Under the current general trend of vehicle electrification, the global sales of new energy vehicles are still expected to maintain a rapid growth trend. There are still structural opportunities in the new energy vehicle sector in 2022, and short-term adjustment may provide a buying opportunity. According to the prediction of the China Passenger Transport Federation, the global sales volume of new energy vehicles is expected to reach 10 million units in 2022, while the sales volume in China is expected to reach 5 million units. China Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) automobile industry chain is expected to fully benefit from the general trend of increasing penetration of electric vehicles. Lithium battery industry chain: it is suggested to focus on leading companies with high self-sufficiency rate in the lithium resources sector, including: Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) , Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) , Jiangxi Special Electric Motor Co.Ltd(002176) , Yongxing Special Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002756) , Sinomine Resource Group Co.Ltd(002738) . With the continuous rise in the prices of raw materials such as lithium ore in the upstream and the improvement in the demand for new energy vehicles in the downstream, the price of power batteries may rise in 2022, and battery enterprises are expected to usher in profitable repair. The relevant targets are: Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) , Gotion High-Tech Co.Ltd(002074) , Farasis Energy (Gan Zhou) Co.Ltd(688567) , Sunwoda Electronic Co.Ltd(300207) , Zhuhai Cosmx Battery Co.Ltd(688772) , Guangzhou Great Power Energy&Technology Co.Ltd(300438) . It is suggested that the lithium battery material industry chain should pay attention to the enterprises with strong bargaining power, integrated layout and overseas expansion of new customers: the cathode material should pay attention to the lithium iron phosphate and high nickel ternary leaders, and the relevant targets include: Shenzhen Dynanonic Co.Ltd(300769) , Beijing Easpring Material Technology Co.Ltd(300073) , Ningbo Ronbay New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(688005) ; Objects related to negative electrode materials: Shanghai Putailai New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(603659) , beiteri, Ningbo Shanshan Co.Ltd(600884) ; Electrolyte related targets: Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002709) , Shenzhen Capchem Technology.Ltd(300037) , Shandong Shida Shenghua Chemical Group Company Limite(603026) ; Related objects of diaphragm: Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) , Shenzhen Senior Technology Material Co.Ltd(300568) ; Related targets of lithium battery accessories: Guangdong Jiayuan Technology Co.Ltd(688388) , Nuode Investment Co.Ltd(600110) . In the field of lithium battery recycling, in the context of the upcoming retirement tide of the power battery recycling industry, it is suggested to pay attention to the enterprises with the advantages of first mover and integration in the fields of power battery recycling and manufacturing, standby power and charge and discharge, and the relevant targets include: Gem Co.Ltd(002340) , Miracle Automation Engineering Co.Ltd(002009) , Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) , Guangdong Guanghua Sci-Tech Co.Ltd(002741) . Related targets of new energy vehicle sector include: traditional vehicle enterprises Byd Company Limited(002594) , Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) , Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) , new power vehicle enterprises Weilai automobile, ideal automobile and Xiaopeng automobile.
Core viewpoints and investment suggestions of photovoltaic and wind power
On April 4, the Global Wind Energy Commission (GWEC) released the global wind energy report 2022. The data showed that in 2021, the installed capacity of global wind power increased by 93.6 GW, and the cumulative installed capacity reached 837 GW, an increase of 12% over the previous year.
The newly installed onshore wind power in China and the United States, the world’s two largest wind power markets, decreased to 30.7 GW and 12.7 GW respectively, but other regions have set an all-time high. New onshore installed capacity in Europe, Latin America, Africa and the Middle East increased by 19%, 27% and 120% respectively. The global offshore wind power has achieved 21.1 GW of new grid connection in 2021, more than three times that in 2020, creating the best record in history. China stands out, with its offshore wind power increment accounting for 80% of the world, which also makes China surpass the UK and become the country with the largest cumulative installed capacity of offshore wind power in the world. In addition, GWEC predicts that 557 GW of global wind power will be added in the next five years (20222026), with a compound annual growth rate of 6.6%. Under the continuous influence of covid-19 epidemic in the world, the wind power industry still achieved nearly 94 GW of new grid connected installed capacity in 2021, a decrease of only 1.8% compared with 2020, the second highest year in history, which confirms the high outlook of the wind power industry. On the whole, the newly installed wind power connected to the grid in the past two years is at an all-time high, but the current growth rate and breadth of the wind power field are still insufficient if we want to ensure the timely realization of global net zero emissions and achieve a safe and flexible global energy transformation. With the continuous introduction of energy policies in various countries and regions and the urgency of achieving climate goals, the market prosperity of the global wind energy industry is expected to continue to improve.
Wind power: in the short term, in 2022, the wind power industry will expand intensively, the pace of expansion is in a hurry, the trend of large-scale wind turbines is significant, the overall cost of the industry is expected to continue to decline, and the wind power landscape is expected to improve. In the medium and long term, wind power is one of the alternative forms of energy to achieve “carbon neutrality”. The wind power industry has broad prospects and long-term growth space. At the same time, offshore wind power is the key to solve the contradiction between insufficient power generation and power load in the eastern coastal areas. Subject matter with cost advantage and technical core competitiveness: Dajin Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(002487) , Titan Wind Energy (Suzhou) Co.Ltd(002531) , Qingdao Tianneng Heavy Industries Co.Ltd(300569) , Riyue Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(603218) , Ming Yang Smart Energy Group Limited(601615) , Xinjiang Goldwind Science And Technology Co.Ltd(002202) , Sinoma Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002080) , Jinlei Technology Co.Ltd(300443) , etc.
Photovoltaic: in the short term, the price of photovoltaic in the middle and upper reaches continued to rise slightly last week, which is mainly due to the lower than expected increase in the expansion of production by large Chinese manufacturers and the strong demand in the lower reaches. From the supply side:
According to the silicon industry branch, China’s polysilicon output in March was about 54600 tons, a month on month increase of + 4.4%. In Q1, China’s polysilicon output was about 159000 tons, and the import volume in the same period is expected to be 22000 tons. China’s total silicon supply was about 181000 tons, lower than expected. Compared with the silicon demand corresponding to the silicon wafer output of 72gw, the silicon supply was slightly insufficient. According to the production expansion progress of various enterprises, it is estimated that the polycrystalline silicon output of Q2 / Q3 / Q4 in China will reach 18 / 18 / 200000 tons respectively in 2022. The annual overseas polycrystalline silicon supply is expected to be about 100000 tons, with a total silicon supply of about 820000 tons, which can meet the terminal installation demand of about 225gw From the demand side, the off-season demand for Q1 photovoltaic in 2022 is not light. As of March, the scale of component bid opening / bidding of central state-owned enterprises in 2022 exceeded 45gw, and the operating rate of component manufacturers remained high.
Looking ahead to Q2, China suggests paying attention to the construction and commencement of large bases; Overseas, with the end of the rush to load in India, the growth rate of overseas demand may slow down. If the price of raw materials continues to rise, components and terminals may have a heavy wait-and-see mood. In view of the overall situation of silicon supply and demand, the price of silicon components in the downstream is expected to maintain a slight rise in 2022, while the supply and demand of silicon components in the downstream is expected to remain in the wrong stage. With the subsequent capacity release of silicon material manufacturers, the prices in the middle and upper reaches are expected to decline, driving the downstream installation demand. According to the forecast, the supply of polysilicon enterprises in China is expected to remain at a relatively high level in April, but the supply of polysilicon is expected to remain in short supply in April. In addition, with the advantages of small floor area, flexibility and intelligence, distributed PV actively promotes the construction of distributed PV by superimposing the policies of the whole county. Distributed projects still account for a high proportion of new installed capacity in 2022.
From a long-term perspective, under the background of “double carbon” and the clear goal that the proportion of non fossil energy in primary energy consumption will reach about 20% in 2025, the cost of superimposed photovoltaic power generation continues to decline, the economy continues to improve, the demand for photovoltaic installed capacity is high, and the growth certainty is strong. Related targets: 1) silicon material leaders Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) , Xinjiang Daqo New Energy Co.Ltd(688303) , with tight supply and demand pattern and high profitability; 2) Component integrated faucet Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) , Trina Solar Co.Ltd(688599) , Ja Solar Technology Co.Ltd(002459) ; 3) Inverter taps benefiting from photovoltaic + energy storage dual wheel drive Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) , Ginlong Technologies Co.Ltd(300763) , Jiangsu Goodwe Power Supply Technology Co.Ltd(688390) ; 4) Photovoltaic glass duopoly Flat Glass Group Co.Ltd(601865) and Xinyi solar energy benefiting from the improvement of the permeability of double glass modules; 5) Subject to the short-term supply bottleneck of raw materials and limited market demand, the leading enterprises in EVA film link Hangzhou First Applied Material Co.Ltd(603806) , Shanghai Hiuv New Materials Co.Ltd(688680) ; 6) Zhejiang Chint Electrics Co.Ltd(601877) , Jinko Power Technology Co.Ltd(601778) , benefiting from the increased proportion of distributed photovoltaic.
Risk tips
The production and sales of new energy vehicles are lower than expected; The double carbon policy is less than expected; The epidemic development exceeded expectations.
