Have you ever thought that after the price rise of some new energy vehicles, it may be more difficult to buy them.
Due to the requirements of epidemic prevention and control, the relevant industrial chains in Shanghai pressed the “pause button” for a time, and many vehicle enterprises and suppliers were affected. As an important manufacturing town of automobiles and new energy vehicles in China, according to incomplete statistics by the reporter of the daily economic news, most vehicle enterprises in and around Shanghai are affected by the epidemic, slowing down production and partially stopping production. Among them, Tesla‘s Shanghai factory, which announced its shutdown on March 29, has not officially resumed work.
According to the latest data, Tesla China delivered about 59800 new cars in March. Based on this calculation, the daily output of its Shanghai plant is about 2850. This means that Tesla‘s Shanghai plant has lost about 37000 vehicles since it stopped production on March 29. This also led to Tesla’s three consecutive price increases in eight days. Now it is still “hard to find a car”. According to the information on its official website, the delivery time of Tesla Model 3 is currently 20-24 weeks, while the delivery time in late March is still 16-20 weeks, which means that it will take at least five months to order model 3.
The situation of auto parts suppliers is not optimistic. According to Tianfeng automobile statistics, almost all the top 100 global auto parts enterprises have factories in Shanghai and surrounding areas, including thousands of large-scale suppliers and more than 20000 small and micro enterprises. They shoulder the heavy responsibility of parts supply for some main engine plants in Shanghai, the Yangtze River Delta, the whole country and even the world. However, due to the impact of the epidemic on both ends of production and logistics, the previous mature and efficient supply system is also facing an unprecedented severe test.
In fact, the impact of the above situation has been reflected in automobile production. On April 11, the latest data released by the passenger Federation showed that in March this year, China’s broad passenger car production was 1.86 million, an increase of 0.5% year-on-year and 22.4% month on month. Although it has improved compared with February, it is of little reference significance because February coincides with the Spring Festival holiday. Compared with the output of 2.091 million vehicles in January this year, China’s automobile output decreased by 11.04% in March, and decreased by 26.04% compared with the output of 2.515 million vehicles in December last year.
“Affected by the epidemic, China’s automobile production in March did not meet the structural expectations of manufacturers. The production of some automobile enterprises was seriously affected and suffered great losses.” Cui Dongshu, Secretary General of the national passenger car market information joint committee, believes that since the newly confirmed cases in China were on the rise in early April, the employees of small and medium-sized enterprises are facing great survival pressure. It is expected that the retail sales of China’s car market in April will be significantly lower than that in March.
In addition, with Tesla and Weilai successively announcing the shutdown, and the impact of the outbreak in many places in China on downstream demand, the capital market’s concerns about the automobile industry have begun to appear. On April 11, April 11, April 11, the collective crash of new energy car track concept stocks and car sectors in the A-share and Hong Kong stock markets, the collective crash of new energy car track concept stocks and car sectors in the A-share and Hong Kong stock markets, the collective crash of new energy car track concept stocks and car sectors on April 11, April 11, April 11, April 11, April 11, April 11, April 11, April 11, April 11, April 11, April 11, April Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) manystocks such as ( ( Keda Industrial Group Co.Ltd(600499) . SH) fell by the limit.
In the Hong Kong stock market, in addition to the collective diving of the share price of “weixiaoli”, the closing price of Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) (02333. HK) fell by more than 13% as of April 11, while the shares of Byd Company Limited(002594) shares (01211. HK), Geely automobile (00175. HK), Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) (02238. HK) and other shares fell by 5% ~ 8%.
3 car market encounters challenges
In fact, because the new round of “war epidemic” has involved many provinces in China, Jilin, Liaoning, Shanghai and other places have been greatly affected. In order to cooperate with the overall situation of epidemic prevention and control, a number of automobile enterprises have issued factory shutdown plans, including Tesla, BMW Brilliance, FAW Group, SAIC Volkswagen, etc.
On March 13, FAW Group, headquartered in Changchun, has arranged for all five vehicle factories in Changchun, including FAW Toyota and FAW Volkswagen, to stop production. It was originally planned to stop production until March 16, but it was not officially announced to resume work until April 11. Among them, FAW Toyota mainly produces RAV4 Rongfang and other models in Changchun factory, while FAW Volkswagen Changchun factory has put into operation FAW Volkswagen models and Audi models respectively, involving Volkswagen brands CC, maiteng, Bora, Weiling and Audi brands A4L, A6L, q5l and other models. Some analysts believe that the five complete vehicle factories of FAW Group have been shut down for nearly a month, or face the loss of output of more than 150000 vehicles.
In Shanghai, the shutdown and production reduction of vehicle enterprises continues. Among them, SAIC Volkswagen factory in Anting, Jiading entered closed-loop production on March 14 and stopped some production on March 31; The SAIC GM plant located in Shanghai Jinqiao Export Processing Zone Development Co.Ltd(600639) still maintained two shifts of production in late March, but the pace of production has slowed down, and some production lines were stopped on March 31.
In the surrounding areas of Shanghai, Geely Automobile said at its sales exchange meeting in March that it shipped about 100000 complete vehicles in March, with a year-on-year increase of 1%. The failure to achieve double-digit growth was mainly due to the shutdown of suppliers in Shanghai, Dalian, Kunshan and other places.
“Vehicle enterprises have been most affected, and most of them have entered the stage of slowing down production and partial shutdown. We expect that the output loss in Shanghai will be about 46000 vehicles every week.” According to the analysis of Tianfeng automobile, at present, most parts companies adopt the closed-loop production mode of factories with key posts left behind. Considering the spare parts warehouse of main engine plants, if Shanghai continues to be static for a week, it will gradually affect and affect the output of other main engine plants.
Morgan Stanley said in the relevant research report that stricter epidemic prevention measures have limited the supply of parts around the Yangtze River Delta to a certain extent, because many parts are distributed in Hangzhou, Suzhou, Ningbo, Jiaxing and other cities. If the blockade lasts longer, it may lead to some far-reaching effects.
Cui Dongshu believes that affected by the epidemic, China’s automobile production in March did not meet the structural expectations of manufacturers, and the production of some automobile enterprises was seriously affected and suffered great losses. In addition, behind the repeated outbreaks in many places, China’s car market has also encountered some challenges.
“After the Spring Festival, a number of new cars are on the market, attracting some consumers to buy cars. In March, the car market should show a steady upward trend. However, the epidemic spread in many parts of the country in March, and all localities continue to resolutely adopt the social clearance strategy. Dealers in Jilin, Shanghai, Shandong, Guangdong, Hebei and other places have been affected in entering stores and transactions. Changes in local management measures have a certain impact on logistics efficiency, resulting in a large loss of car retail sales.” Cui Dongshu said.
According to the production data of the National Bureau of statistics, Shanghai and Jilin province each account for about 11% of the national annual automobile production, and some enterprises in Shanghai previously operated their production lines at full capacity, which may mean that the production and sales of passenger cars in China’s core regions will still be affected in April this year.
“In April, China’s automobile production and sales still faced great uncertainty. In early April, the newly confirmed cases in China were on the rise, and the employees of small and medium-sized enterprises were under great pressure. It is expected that the retail sales volume of China’s automobile market in April will be significantly lower than that in March.” Cui Dongshu said.
new energy vehicles “worry about rising”
It is worth noting that when there is a correction in the overall auto market, the new energy passenger vehicle market continues its growth trend. According to the data of the passenger Federation, the output of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles in mid March was 437000, an increase of 124.2% year-on-year and 24.9% month on month.
Although affected by the recent price increase, the passenger Federation believes that before the price increase, the orders of new energy vehicles were hot and the overall orders were sufficient. In addition, although there are still local sporadic cases of the epidemic in China, especially in mega cities dominated by new energy vehicles such as Shenzhen and Shanghai, the relatively mild epidemic prevention measures in most areas at that time had no significant impact on Residents’ travel and car purchase consumption, and promoted the sales of new energy vehicles.
\u3000\u3000 “At present, the impact of the two rounds of price rise of new energy vehicles is not obvious. The main reason is that the sales mode of new energy vehicles is order sales. At present, there are many orders in the hands of vehicle enterprises before the price rise, which basically digests the early orders from March to April, so the sales volume has little impact. Secondly, plug-in hybrid vehicles have a diversion effect on the fuel vehicle market, and high oil prices have increased the advantages of new energy vehicles. Now, with high oil prices, The cost performance of new energy vehicles has been significantly improved. The third reason is that consumers of new energy vehicles have strong rigid demand and relatively low price sensitivity. Therefore, small price changes will not significantly affect consumers’ demand for new energy vehicles. ” Cui Dongshu analyzed that.
By brand, the Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) passenger car market “blossomed at many points” in mid March, and a total of 13 enterprises sold more than 10000 vehicles wholesale. Among them, Byd Company Limited(002594) ranked first with 104300 vehicles; Tesla China ranks second with the wholesale sales of 65800 vehicles; The sales volume of SAIC GM Wuling, the third place, was 51200, which was nearly doubled from last month; Chery Automobile, GAC AIAN, Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) , Xiaopeng automobile, Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) , Geely Automobile, Nezha automobile, ideal automobile, SAIC passenger car and Zero run automobile ranked fourth to thirteenth respectively.
However, the impact of the epidemic on China’s Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) automobile industry is gradually emerging. Tesla’s Shanghai plant, located near the port of Pudong, stopped production on March 16 and 17, followed by closed-loop production for two weeks, and stopped production again on March 29. According to Reuters, Tesla has informed employees and suppliers that production at its Shanghai plant will not resume on Monday, and the specific resumption time is still to be determined.
On April 9, Weilai automobile also announced that the whole vehicle production has been suspended, and the delivery of users’ vehicles will be delayed in the near future. As for when to resume production, the specific time has not been announced yet. Li Bin, founder, chairman and CEO of Weilai automobile, said in the comment area, “affected by the epidemic situation in Changchun and Hebei, Weilai has cut off the supply of some parts since mid March. Coupled with the recent epidemic situation in Shanghai and Jiangsu, the situation that suppliers can not supply goods has become more and more serious, and finally Weilai made the decision to stop production.”
In addition to the above car enterprises, recently, the leading power battery enterprise Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) ( Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) . SZ) has also been reported that it will arrange production according to existing raw materials and will not enter new raw materials in the short term. In this regard, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) relevant person in charge told reporters: “recently, there has been an individual epidemic in Ningde, and the government has temporarily upgraded the epidemic prevention and control measures. The company attaches great importance to it, and strengthened communication and coordination with relevant government departments for epidemic prevention at the first time. At present, in order to maximize the market supply, the company strictly adopts grid management measures to ensure the orderly production of Ningde base.”
Under the influence of geographical conflicts on the cost of raw materials and the impact of outbreaks in many places in China on downstream demand, the concerns of the capital market about the new energy vehicle industry have begun to appear. On April 11, the new energy vehicle industry chain represented by Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) fell across the board. Among them, Shenzhen Dynanonic Co.Ltd(300769) ( Shenzhen Dynanonic Co.Ltd(300769) . SZ) fell by more than 9%, Guangzhou Great Power Energy&Technology Co.Ltd(300438) ( Guangzhou Great Power Energy&Technology Co.Ltd(300438) . SZ) fell by more than 6%, Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) ( Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) . SZ), Sichuan Yahua Industrial Group Co.Ltd(002497) ( Sichuan Yahua Industrial Group Co.Ltd(002497) . SZ) followed the decline in varying degrees. As of the closing on April 11, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) fell more than 7% to 459.00 yuan / share.
