Pudie! On Monday (April 11), the three major A-share indexes fell across the board, the Shanghai index fell below 3200 points, and the gem index once fell below the new low of the year, down more than 4%. Industry analysts believe that the recent decline in the market is mainly due to five factors. How to go in the future market of a shares? Where are the investment opportunities?
On Monday, the three major A-share indexes collectively fell by more than 2%. As of the close, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 2.61% to 316713 points, the Shenzhen composite index fell 3.67% to 1152021 points, and the gem index fell 4.2% to 246204 points; The total turnover of the two cities was 963.7 billion yuan, and the net sales of northbound funds were 5.762 billion yuan.
In terms of individual stocks, on Monday, the A-share market rose less and fell more. A total of 558 stocks rose and 4089 stocks fell. Among them, 63 stocks closed at the daily limit and 74 stocks fell by the limit.
Trading limit of individual stocks on Monday (April 11): p align = “center” tabulation: Zhang Ying
Meanwhile, the Hong Kong stock market also experienced a correction on Monday, with the Hang Seng Index, the Hang Seng state-owned enterprise index and the Hang Seng technology index all falling by more than 3%.
For the trend of a shares, institutions generally said that the market will continue to shake and consolidate, and it is suggested to select stocks around the certainty of performance.
There are five main reasons for the weakening of market shocks China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) said that the phased market is still a structural market with index shock consolidation and capital stock game. 1) The epidemic intensified the downward pressure on the economy, but also increased the space and impetus for subsequent monetary and credit easing. From the two sessions to the meeting of the finance committee to the national standing committee, the decision-making level’s determination to “stabilize growth” has been repeatedly confirmed. It is expected to accelerate the implementation of monetary policies and provide strong support for the subsequent macro-economic easing and stability. 2) Real estate credit risk has also been “removing thunder” in succession. On March 16, six departments jointly issued a voice to strengthen the marginal relaxation expectation of real estate policy. On April 1, the extension of rongchuang bonds was approved, and the domestic debt default crisis of rongchuang was relieved. 3) The decision-making level has a clear determination to maintain the stability of the capital market. The meeting of the Financial Committee stressed “maintaining the stable operation of the capital market”, and the national standing committee continued to emphasize “maintaining the stability of the capital market” and required “preventing and correcting the introduction of policies that are not conducive to market expectations” to continue to stabilize market confidence. 4) However, on the whole, the market risk preference is still weak, and the game characteristics of capital stock are obvious. In the first quarter, the new issuance scale of partial stock funds decreased by 82% year-on-year, and the funds from absolute income institutions such as insurance and private placement were also limited. At the same time, the interest rate difference between China and the United States approached upside down for the first time since July 2010, which also led to the slowdown of foreign capital inflows. 5) In addition, external factors such as rising inflation, the Fed’s expectation of raising interest rates and shrinking the table, fluctuations in US stocks and geopolitical conflicts will continue to be disturbed. Therefore, the probability index will continue to fluctuate and consolidate.
Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) Securities believes that before the credit path is clear, buying stocks at present is like “driving in fog”, and the visibility is reduced. It is suggested to select stocks around the certainty of performance. In addition to cycle manufacturing, we should also see that the continuation of the epidemic will also increase the allocation value brought by the supply contraction of some consumer industries. Three directions are recommended: 1) dividend strategy: coal, chemical resources and finance; 2) Tog end or public investment direction: wind power, power grid, construction, etc; 3) the dilemma reversal: pig, Baijiu and consumer services, focusing on the bottom elasticity of consumer goods, building materials, steel and light industrial sectors in the Q2 part of the middle reaches.
At the same time, public funds, private placement and other institutions have also expressed a cautious attitude towards the future market. Xia Fengguang, manager of Rongzhi investment fund of private placement paipai.com, believes that today’s decline is mainly concentrated in the previous hour. This shows that the market sentiment was disturbed by the weekend news, and the bearish funds chose to leave quickly after the opening. From today’s trend, pessimistic expectations have risen. In addition, the gem index hit a new low, which is due to the rising expectation of overseas interest rate hike, which has the greatest suppression on growth stocks. At the same time, the valuation of the gem is still high in the main broad-based index. Once the profit growth rate declines, the pressure of valuation reconstruction is the greatest.
At present, the market is facing better structural opportunities. After several policy bottoms, the market bottoming cycle is often not smooth. In the process of bottoming, we should grasp the medium and long-term direction.
Yang Ziyi, research director of Zhongrui Heyin, said that driven by the Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) sharp decline today, the gem and even the whole A-share market fell again by a large margin. At present, the factor that dominates the market operation in the short term still lies in the sharp decline of risk appetite under “domestic and foreign troubles”. “Internal worries” are reflected in the repeated outbreaks and substantial damage to economic fundamentals. “Foreign aggression” is reflected in the continuous disturbance of International Geopolitics, which has exacerbated the market’s concerns about “inflation” and even “stagflation”. In the future, although the internal and external uncertainties are increasing, the market response to this is also very sufficient. We should not be overly pessimistic. No matter the epidemic or war will pass, we should focus on the long-term and pay attention to the long-term changes of the industry and the company.
Zhao Yuanyuan, investment director of Jianhong times, believes that as the monetary policy node approaches, the market has entered a waiting period. The expectation of interest rate and reserve requirement reduction in April began to weaken, and the possibility of directional refinancing or excess MLF is increasing. The macro data of the first quarter is about to be released, and the drag of the epidemic on the economy has exacerbated the market panic. A shares are just bottoming out and preparing for the next rebound.
In terms of hot spots, on Monday, the planting industry and forestry sector led the rise, and several stocks such as Hainan Shennong Technology Co.Ltd(300189) , Xinjiang Talimu Agriculture Development Co.Ltd(600359) , etc. rose by the limit; The logistics sector showed strong performance, with 14 individual stocks including Jiangsu Xinning Modern Logistics Co.Ltd(300013) , Jiangsu Feiliks International Logistics Inc(300240) etc. collectively trading; Community group buying, prefabricated vegetables, aquaculture and other sectors were active; Salt lake lithium sector led the decline, with wechat apps, small metals, auto chips, rental and sale rights and other sectors leading the decline. Today, Guanlong energy conservation landed on the gem, down 8.14%.
Hot spot 1: Agricultural stocks rose against the market, and the seed industry sector rose nearly 8%
On Monday, agricultural stocks rose against the market, and relevant sub sectors such as seed industry and soybean rose one after another. As of the closing, the seed industry sector rose by 7.98%, and three concept stocks rose by the limit, of which Hainan Shennong Technology Co.Ltd(300189) 20com rose by the limit.
In this regard, The Pacific Securities Co.Ltd(601099) Securities said that under the background of continuous international geographical conflicts, the status of China’s planting industry has increased, and its future development may be further protected by policies. The recent correction of high grain prices outside China, but the fundamentals of low inventory and high demand are still conducive to the operation of high grain prices. Maintain the “optimistic” rating of the industry and recommend Jiangsu Provincial Agricultural Reclamation And Development Co.Ltd(601952) .
Hot spot 2: warehousing and logistics rose by more than 4%, and 7 concept stocks rose by the collective limit
On Monday, the warehousing and logistics sector emerged with strong performance. As of the close, the sector rose the most, reaching 4.47%. Seven concept stocks collectively rose by the limit, of which two stocks, including Jiangsu Xinning Modern Logistics Co.Ltd(300013) , Jiangsu Feiliks International Logistics Inc(300240) and Jiangsu Feiliks International Logistics Inc(300240) all reached the 20cm limit.
On the news side, the opinions of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council on accelerating the construction of a national unified market was released on the 10th. The opinions pointed out that strengthening the unification of basic market systems and rules, promoting high-standard connectivity of market facilities, creating a unified market for elements and resources, promoting high-level unification of commodity and service markets, promoting fair and unified market supervision, and further standardizing improper market competition and market intervention. The opinions provide a program of action for building a national unified market in the future, which will certainly deepen reform and opening up under the new situation, Make better use of, give play to, consolidate and enhance the huge advantages of China’s market resources, and comprehensively promote the transformation of China’s market from large to strong, which will have an important impact.
Zheshang Securities Co.Ltd(601878) believes that opening up the blocking point is beneficial to the logistics industry. Vigorously developing the logistics industry and promoting the cost reduction and efficiency increase of logistics in the whole society is an important link in the construction of modern circulation network. Breaking through the blocking points and breaking the local protection and market segmentation will help the smooth flow of commodity factor resources in a wider range. For the logistics industry, it means the further expansion of market space and the reduction of operating costs. According to the data of the Ministry of Commerce, in 2020, the total logistics cost of the whole society accounted for 14.7% of GDP, almost twice that of the United States and Japan, so there is much room for cost reduction and efficiency increase. In addition, the opinion points out that “support the construction of digital third-party logistics delivery platform”, and the digital empowerment will help logistics enterprises become supply chain enterprises with global influence.
