The expectation of external contraction has risen, the inflationary pressure has not decreased, the internal epidemic has been repeated, and some foreign capital has flowed out recently. According to the statistics of datayes, the net outflow of funds from the north in March exceeded 45.1 billion yuan, the net outflow continued to exceed 6.557 billion yuan in the past week, and the recent cumulative net outflow exceeded 50 billion yuan. The uncertainty led to the wait-and-see attitude of foreign capital, but the new energy industry chain and the theme of upstream resource products were still increased against the trend.
Several investment managers of foreign-funded asset management institutions told China first finance and economics that international investors are currently focusing on the disturbance of the supply chain, and car companies that are already under the pressure of upstream price increases bear the brunt. For example, the latest news shows that many supply chain partners of Weilai automobile have stopped production one after another and have not recovered. Weilai vehicle production has been suspended, and many vehicles will be delayed in the near future. In addition, the semiconductor industry and enterprises that rely heavily on China’s consumer market have attracted attention.
New energy and upstream themes were increased against the trend
Under internal and external pressure, international funds continued to flow out due to rising defense sentiment. The net outflow since the beginning of the year is 26.464 billion yuan, and the net outflow in March exceeded 45.1 billion yuan.
In the past two weeks, geopolitical disturbance to the market has been continuously reduced, and monetary tightening has begun to dominate the market. According to the minutes of the Fed meeting released last week, Fed officials discussed how to reduce their trillions of dollars of bond holdings at the March meeting, and reached a consensus of about $95 billion a month. Officials “generally agreed” to allow up to $60 billion in treasury bonds and $35 billion in mortgage-backed securities to be sold in stages within three months, possibly starting in May. This total will be twice the amount of the last reduction in 20172019. In addition, at the upcoming meeting, the Federal Reserve may raise interest rates by 50 basis points.
On the Chinese side, the executive meeting of the State Council was held on the evening of April 6, saying that we should “make timely and flexible use of a variety of monetary policy tools” and “strengthen the implementation of prudent monetary policy”. Morgan Stanley Huaxin Fund told reporters: “the meeting did not explicitly mention the reduction of interest rates and reserve requirements. Since March, the market’s expectations for the reduction of reserve requirements and interest rates have failed many times, and the market sentiment has weakened.”
Wu Zhaoyin, macro strategy director of AVIC trust, told reporters that the yield of us 10-year Treasury bonds closed at 2.7% last week, up to 2.73%; China’s 10-year Treasury bonds closed at 2.755%, so that China US bond yields were basically flat. While US bond yields rose sharply, the US dollar index exceeded 100 in the session, which may lead to the decline of global risk appetite and the return of global capital to the United States.
“The epidemic situation in China is repeated, and the logistics and transportation are affected. The PMI in March was 49.5, which is lower than the boom and bust line. Considering that the PMI sampling time is up to the 25th of each month, April should be weaker than March at present.” He said that from the perspective of fiscal and monetary policies and the current situation of real estate, the logic of capital market speculation in real estate and infrastructure sectors is not sufficient, “the market is still in the process of shock bottoming”.
Despite the outflow of funds, some sectors are still increased by foreign capital against the trend. According to the statistics of Guosheng securities, at the industry level, there is a strong willingness to increase the net holdings of pharmaceutical biology, electronics, power equipment and basic chemical industry, and the number of increased holdings is more than 30. In fact, individual stocks are mainly concentrated on the two themes of new energy industry chain and upstream resource products.
According to the data of choice, the new energy sector has become an important area for the north to increase its holdings of capital against the trend. The net inflow of Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) , Nari Technology Co.Ltd(600406) , Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) , Trina Solar Co.Ltd(688599) and other power equipment targets has increased significantly, with the net inflow reaching 3.245 billion yuan, 2.927 billion yuan, 2.154 billion yuan and 1.114 billion yuan respectively Zijin Mining Group Company Limited(601899) , Yantai Jereh Oilfield Services Group Co.Ltd(002353) , Petrochina Company Limited(601857) were also increased, with cumulative net inflows of 2.628 billion yuan, 1.083 billion yuan and 1.013 billion yuan respectively.
The high medium and long-term prosperity of the new energy industry chain is still the main reason. Miao Zimei, director of equity investment of fidelity Asia, mentioned that, “The new energy vehicle sector has started a sharp correction since the fourth quarter of last year, but we are still optimistic about its prospects in 2022. The reasons include: 2022 is the big year of new electric vehicle models in the world, and the global sales volume is expected to be more than 9 million, with a growth rate of more than 50%. The sales volume in China is expected to be more than 5 million (including exports) , with a year-on-year increase of more than 50%, the shortage of chips has been gradually alleviated, which is also conducive to vehicle delivery. The trend of electrification and intelligence in China’s automobile market has been very clear. “
As far as the upstream resource sector is concerned, the hype of lithium resources driven by electric vehicles continues. In the context of the sharp rise in oil prices, Morgan Stanley had also singled out several major beneficiaries: Xiaopeng automobile, CNOOC oilfield services, CNOOC, Yantai Jereh Oilfield Services Group Co.Ltd(002353) , Maiwei technology and Kunlun energy (PetroChina).
Foreign capital focused supply chain disturbance
In April, due to the repeated outbreaks in many places in China, foreign investors focused on the disturbance of the supply chain, which is also likely to dominate the investment layout of institutions in the future. At present, a number of people from foreign institutions told reporters that the industries concerned or affected mainly include automobiles, semiconductors, non essential consumer goods, etc.
On April 10, a notice on the shutdown of Weilai automobile attracted attention. Li Bin, the founder of the company, said recently: “in mid March, we cut off the supply of some parts, and reluctantly supported it until last week by relying on some parts inventory. Recently, there has been an epidemic in many places, and many partners can’t supply goods and can only suspend production. This situation is not ours.”
Despite the high prosperity of the new energy industry, the industry was caught in the dilemma of soaring upstream costs earlier, but now it has suffered a double blow. In March, the performance of Byd Company Limited(002594) attracted attention – the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 3.045 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 28.08%. According to platform data, the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate has risen to the sky high price of 500000 yuan / ton, up nearly 10 times in just over a year. Recently, new energy companies represented by Tesla have started a new round of price rise, but in order to seize the market, car enterprises can only pass on a small part of the cost, which often belongs to “making money at a loss”.
Many of the epidemic centers are important places for China’s automobile industry, such as Jilin. Considering the rapid relief of the epidemic in Jilin, FAW Volkswagen, Audi and Hongqi are expected to start construction in the near future. However, in other places, production is disturbed or delivery is affected.
In addition, the semiconductor industry has also attracted much attention. The main wafer foundries in Shanghai and Kunshan Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation(688981) , Huahong, TSMC Songjiang 8-inch factory and packaging and testing factory Universal Scientific Industrial(Shanghai)Co.Ltd(601231) , due to sufficient preparation in advance, have maintained normal operation for 10 days, which does not seriously affect the revenue expectation of the first quarter, and the development of new products may be delayed. The shutdown of some downstream system companies and the reduction of production of PCB and carrier plants may cause bottlenecks and increase semiconductor inventory.
The above-mentioned organizations believe that at present, raw materials (large silicon wafers, chemicals and special gases) are still heavily used, and the shipment and transportation of semi-finished products and products are also unstable. If the epidemic affects for a long time, semiconductor wafer foundry and packaging and testing plants will have the opportunity to significantly reduce the load due to lack of materials, but some companies believe that they can make up for the revenue of the second quarter or the year through overtime urgent orders.
