Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) : grasp the medium-term repair market throughout the second and third quarters
Referring to the experience of Xi’an, Shenzhen and Jilin, it is expected that the middle of April will be the inflection point of the current round of Shanghai epidemic and the key window for the second force of the steady growth policy. The medium-term repair market of A-Shares will run through the second and third quarters. On the one hand, in this round of local epidemic, the newly confirmed cases in Shanghai are expected to usher in an inflection point in mid April. It is expected that after this round of local epidemic is effectively controlled, local policies will rebalance between epidemic prevention and control and economic development to alleviate economic pressure. On the other hand, it is expected that the disclosure of economic data will promote the second centralized development of the steady growth policy, in which the “package” policy for real estate will continue to be strengthened. At the same time, mid April is also a key window for the reduction of policy interest rates.
To sum up, if the inflection point of the epidemic and the policy force point are superimposed as expected, the medium-term repair market of A-Shares will run through the second and third quarters. It is suggested to continue to stick to the main line of steady growth, firmly layout the varieties of “low valuation” and “expected low”, and focus on the real estate and infrastructure industry chain in the second quarter.
Haitong Securities Company Limited(600837) : the implementation of the steady growth policy is expected to drive the market repair, and the growth is expected to be dominant in stages
① historical data show that the rise of US bond interest rate has little impact on the trend and style of a shares, and profit is the decisive variable of style. ② The implementation of the steady growth policy is expected to drive the market repair. This year’s style is similar to that of 12 years. The annual value is slightly dominant, and the growth is expected to be dominant in stages. ③ At present, we continue to focus on the main line of steady growth, such as finance, real estate and new infrastructure. The latter is more flexible and focuses on the main line of recovery in the second half of the year.
China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) securities: grinding stage, wait patiently
The market is at the bottom stage from the medium-term perspective, but it faces some challenges: the economy has entered the active destocking stage, and the epidemic has disturbed the economy; The rapid rise of US bond interest rate has not been stable, and there is uncertainty in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the geopolitical situation. At this time, investors should be patient and should not rush forward, waiting for the opportunity of fundamentals bottoming, the improvement of the external environment or strong easing of policies. If there is a significant adjustment in the market, they can also gradually layout. The layout direction focuses on early cycle varieties (real estate chain, etc.). If the subsequent US bond interest rate stabilizes and China’s broad currency strengthens, they can consider gradually increasing the allocation of growth.
Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) Securities: current investment is like “driving in fog”. It is recommended to select shares based on the certainty of performance
At this stage, investment is like “driving in fog”. Visionaries advance steadily, win and then fight. Before the credit path is clear, buying stocks at present is like “driving in fog”, and the visibility is reduced. It is suggested to select stocks around the certainty of performance. In addition to cycle manufacturing, we should also see that the continuation of the epidemic will also increase the allocation value brought by the supply contraction of some consumer industries. Three directions are recommended: 1) dividend strategy: coal, chemical resources and finance; 2) To G end or public investment direction: wind power, power grid, construction, etc; 3) the dilemma reversal: pig, Baijiu and consumer services, focusing on the bottom elasticity of consumer goods, building materials, steel and light industrial sectors in the Q2 part of the middle reaches.
Continue to change positions and pay attention to the revaluation of assets and cash flow value. Although the valuation of growth assets such as “track stocks” has been greatly squeezed, we still suggest that investors should continue to change positions and change positions in the rebound, so as not to win for a moment. The speed of this round of adjustment is rapid, the chip concentration of institutional investors has not been effectively reduced, and growth assets still need a long time to digest the micro trading structure; Secondly, the contraction of the private sector balance sheet is making the growing downstream demand face fluctuations, and the profit expectation is “good but difficult to be better”. However, the market does not lack investment opportunities: in the economic slowdown stage of the structural transformation period, the dependence of growth on traditional sectors increases rather than decreases, which leads to the convergence of tail risk pricing such as real estate and platform economy. More importantly, both supply side reform and energy consumption control are improving the return on assets of some traditional economic sectors. This means that companies with physical assets and stable cash flow have very high investment value at present, and the value style will rotate internally, but the revaluation is not over.
China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) : there is still configuration value in the stable growth field of undervalued value
We believe that the stable growth field with undervalued value still has phased relative allocation value. At present, we pay attention to three directions: 1) in the “bottom grinding” stage of the market, the stable growth sector with relatively low valuation may still have relative benefits in the current macro environment, such as the industrial chain related to the stable demand of traditional infrastructure and real estate (real estate, building materials, construction, household appliances, home furnishings, etc.); 2) The manufacturing growth sector, including new energy vehicles, new energy and technology hardware semiconductors, has released some risks, but the turnaround lies in the marginal improvement of “stagflation” risk, global liquidity and market sentiment factors; 3) For the middle and lower reaches consumption with more adjustments, low valuation and clear medium and long-term prospects in 2021, stock selection from bottom to top includes household appliances, light industry and household appliances, automobiles and parts, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, medicine, etc.
China Merchants Securities Co.Ltd(600999) : continue to focus on stable growth, pay attention to upstream resource products, post cyclical consumption of real estate, new energy infrastructure, etc.
The latest data show that from January to February this year, the growth rate of the planned scale of new construction of fixed asset investment soared to the highest level since 2010, further confirming and strengthening the logic of a stable growth year. Based on the data of setting the tone of the meeting, policy guidance, special debt & PPP investment direction and approval of fixed asset investment projects, it can be found that the key directions of steady growth this year include transportation, water conservancy, urban pipe network reconstruction and construction, affordable housing projects, etc. Affected by the epidemic, the necessity and urgency of policy overweight to support steady growth have further improved. It is recommended to continue focusing on steady growth and pay attention to upstream resource products, post cyclical consumption of real estate, new energy infrastructure, etc.
Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) : growth continues to cut value, steady growth is the first real estate stock
Maintain the viewpoint of “careful thinking and practice”, “steady growth affects value, and US debt affects growth”, “dominant value style”, and steady growth is the first to promote real estate stocks.
From the perspective of “winning odds” framework, we maintain the view of spring strategy Outlook: value is dominant. (1) Winning rate: at present, the winning rate of value style is still higher – quite a few investors mistakenly believe that the winning rate of growth style will increase significantly when the growth rate of social finance reverses, and they are also uncertain about the trend of US bond interest rate; However, we believe that the inhibition of US bond real interest rate on A-share growth stocks is dominant, and the marginal change of social finance structure is more important than the total direction! At present, the Fed is still firmly tight. When it turns to relative doves depends on whether or when the US economy will fall into recession; On the other hand, 22 years’ marginal change of wide credit force is in the traditional direction of real estate infrastructure, and the marginal change of structural wide credit points to the predominance of value ; (2) Odds: the odds of the current value style are still better – although we believe that the high-quality development top-level design set by China in early 19 will be more conducive to the growth style of the market in the long run, due to the large ERP split between the market value and the market growth, and in 22 years, we ushered in the rapid tightening of the Federal Reserve + China’s shift from tight credit to stable credit, which will drive the ERP split in the past three years to converge to a certain extent, which may not be more than half of the process; From the perspective of valuation, although growth stocks have undergone great digestion, the valuation has not been very attractive.
China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) : index shock consolidation, paying attention to the diffusion and spillover of real estate market
The phased market is still a structural market with index shock consolidation and capital stock game. 1) The epidemic intensified the downward pressure on the economy, but also increased the space and impetus for subsequent monetary and credit easing. From the two sessions, to the meeting of the Finance Committee and then to the national standing committee, the decision-making level’s determination to “stabilize growth” has been repeatedly confirmed. It is expected to accelerate the implementation of monetary policies and provide strong support for the subsequent macro-economic easing and stability. 2) Real estate credit risk has also been “removing thunder” in succession. On March 16, six departments jointly issued a voice to strengthen the marginal relaxation expectation of real estate policy. On April 1, the extension of rongchuang bonds was approved, and the domestic debt default crisis of rongchuang was relieved. 3) The decision-making level has a clear determination to maintain the stability of the capital market. The meeting of the Financial Committee stressed “maintaining the stable operation of the capital market”, and the national standing committee continued to emphasize “maintaining the stability of the capital market” and required “preventing and correcting the introduction of policies that are not conducive to market expectations” to continue to stabilize market confidence. 4) However, on the whole, the market risk preference is still weak, and the game characteristics of capital stock are obvious. In the first quarter, the new issuance scale of partial stock funds decreased by 82% year-on-year, and the funds from absolute income institutions such as insurance and private placement were also limited. At the same time, the interest rate difference between China and the United States approached upside down for the first time since July 2010, which also led to the slowdown of foreign capital inflows. 5) In addition, external factors such as rising inflation, the Fed’s expectation of raising interest rates and shrinking the table, fluctuations in US stocks and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine will continue to be disturbed. Therefore, the probability situation, the index will continue to shock consolidation.
Structurally, focus on the three directions of steady growth + real estate + high prosperity in the first quarter, and pay attention to the diffusion and spillover of the real estate market. 1) First, for the real estate sector, although there are periodic fluctuations after continuous sharp rises. But in the medium term, whether from the perspective of time or space, the market may not be over. According to our judgment in the report “time and space of four indicators to see the real estate market” on April 6, the real estate sector may still enjoy excess returns at least before the downward pressure on house prices is relieved and the residential prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities turn positive month on month. In terms of growth and valuation, whether as an important starting point for “stable growth” or from the perspective of preventing and resolving systemic financial risks, the follow-up real estate policies have room and power to relax, or drive the sector to rise further. 2) Secondly, in the stock game environment, we should pay attention to the overall diffusion and spillover of the market from real estate to the “stable growth” sector. After the sharp rise of real estate, the allocation cost performance of “steady growth” related sectors, which are similar to the style attribute of real estate, also benefit from the expected warming of policy relaxation, and the increase is relatively backward, is prominent. At the same time, the global market is still in a mess of high volatility and low risk appetite. Building materials, construction, banking, brokerage and other sectors are both security and policy driven, and can attack and retreat. 3) Photovoltaic, chemical, pharmaceutical, semiconductor and other sectors whose quarterly report exceeded expectations and the boom is expected to continue: the performance in the quarterly report period exceeded expectations will become an important support for the performance of the sector. At present, among the stocks that disclose the first quarterly report in advance and win in advance, the disclosure rate of photovoltaic, chemical, pharmaceutical and semiconductor is high, and the overall probability of the sector exceeding expectations is high.
Anxin Securities: around policy expectations, bold assumptions and careful verification
See long Zaitian in March and have confidence in the 3000 support level of Shanghai Composite Index. At the same time, we maintained our previous prediction of the end of the current round of economy in the second quarter. The inflection point for the improvement of molecular fundamentals is expected to be closer, the negative impact of external factors (Russia Ukraine conflict, fed interest rate hike and global inflation) is weakened, and the possibility of entering a unilateral downward trend in the equity market similar to that in 2012 is low. A shares may jump into the abyss in the second quarter and look forward to “Nike type”. Here, we maintain the judgment that we are currently in “positional warfare” (strategic stalemate, maintaining concentration, not suitable for switching back and forth). Structurally, in the bottom grinding stage from “policy bottom to market bottom”, the market is facing the suppression of economic downturn and policy uncertainty. Undervalued, value based and counter cyclical industries (such as infrastructure and real estate) and weak cyclical industries perform better than growth industries. However, after the bottom grinding stage, the risk appetite will pick up, the market will return to the growth style, and the high-risk preference sector is expected to perform better. From the current transaction logic: first, stable growth can not afford, high prosperity is difficult to flourish; Second, steady growth and a turnaround in high prosperity. At present, we are in the process of “realizing steady growth and turning the corner of high prosperity”. Our proposed configuration is steady growth (real estate chain, infrastructure construction and Banking) global inflation (coal, agriculture, animal husbandry and petrochemical), high prosperity (digital intelligence, photovoltaic, military industry, semiconductor, wind power and new energy vehicles) post epidemic repair.
the essence of this round of excess real estate market is that the market is focusing on policy expectations, and the transaction logic first completes the process from reality to expectation, but there will also be a process from expectation to reality in the end. “Bold assumption and careful verification” has become the mentality of a considerable number of mainstream institutional investors. In the short term, the excess real estate market may continue until the market transaction expectation gradually rises to the predetermined economic goal, that is, to complete the mission of this round of “stable growth” it should be reminded that the diffusion from the excess real estate market to the real estate chain is based on the demand side driving logic, and the subsequent verification of real estate fundamental data (such as sales data) is required. Corresponding to this point, we also proposed in the previous weekly report that the steady growth effect and fundamental improvement brought by this round of marginal relaxation of real estate need to pass the multiple tests of the epidemic, real estate enterprise financing and residents’ leverage ratio, which is destined to increase the volatility of this round of excess real estate market. A more direct observation is that since the rebound in mid March, northbound funds have not significantly flowed into the real estate, and the side angle reflects the hesitation in the verification of real estate fundamentals.
Huaxi Securities Co.Ltd(002926) : play a good defensive counterattack, stabilize the growth value, and the blue chip still wins
Under the requirements of the policy of “moving forward and strengthening in time”, the monetary environment will remain loose, and there are still expectations of reducing reserve requirements and interest rates. The meeting of the Political Bureau in April will continue to take “stable growth” as the main tone of the policy. At present, A-Shares are still in the process of repeatedly grinding the bottom. In terms of style, dividend strategy and stable growth value, blue chip still wins. In terms of industry configuration, pay attention to three main lines: 1) infrastructure related, such as “architecture and building materials”; 2) Real estate related, such as “finance, real estate”; 3) It is expected that the troubled industries will gradually improve, such as “breeding”.
