In the first quarter of this year, the market adjusted significantly. Private placement analysis said that the A-share and Hong Kong stock markets are at historical lows. Both the overall market and some industries are now containing excellent long-term investment opportunities. In the second quarter, with some marginal improvement signals, the market may get rid of the unilateral downward trend in the first quarter. Specifically, in terms of operation, some private placements adhere to the operation of high positions, and high-quality growth stocks with high prosperity are concerned.
market sentiment has recovered
long term investment opportunities are brewing
Zhao Jun, head of Danshui spring, said in an internal exchange that many Chinese stock assets such as a shares, China concept shares and Hong Kong stocks have suffered great selling pressure in the past few months, and some assets have even fallen into a "panic spiral". However, this is more like a "stress response" to deal with short-term market uncertainty, which does not have long-term and continuous directional significance. There has been no major and fundamental change in China's investment willingness in the real long-term allocation of funds in China.
Oriental marathon admitted that the market test in the first quarter was no smaller than that in the past year. From the perspective of valuation, the uncertainty faced by the extremely complex macro environment has led to the historical low of A-share and Hong Kong stock markets. There are excellent long-term investment opportunities in both the overall market and some industries.
Although there was a rebound brought by the meeting of the financial committee in mid March, on the whole, the performance of A-Shares in March was still weak. According to Shicheng investment, the market will still be at the bottom stage in the near future.
Dan Yi Investment pointed out that on the whole, the market is still in a "stagflation" environment, and there is no clear timetable for the mitigation of the epidemic and inflation. Looking forward to the second quarter, we can expect some marginal improvement signals. Combined with the current relatively low valuation level, the market may get rid of the unilateral downward trend in the first quarter.
Zhao Jun judged that under the accumulation of many negative factors, investor sentiment and business pressure are in a relatively pessimistic situation in recent years. Although it is difficult to predict the specific time point, the pendulum of sentiment should be accumulating strong reverse potential energy.
some private placements insist on high position operation
high prosperity and high-quality growth stocks attracted attention
In the case of a sharp decline in the market, the operation of private placement is different, some light positions and some full positions.
Minority investment told reporters, "we did not reduce our positions in the first quarter, but still insisted on full positions. Since last year, we have adhered to the undervalued value strategy. With the return of the value style this year, we can calmly face the sharp adjustment in the market."
Danshui spring has also maintained high position operation in the past period of time. Zhao Jun said that at present, in the A-share and Hong Kong stock markets, a number of high-quality leading companies in the "double low" state are accumulating, and their potential investment expected income space will be large. The so-called "double low" refers to that the enterprise is currently at the low end of the business development cycle, but will enter the boom upward cycle and usher in a leap forward development in the next 1-3 years. At the same time, investors have low expectations, are at the low mood, and the stock price performance also lags behind the market, so it has a certain valuation advantage.
Zhao Jun admitted that there was downward pressure on the economy in the third and fourth quarters of last year. Some enterprises began to have operating pressure, and the stock price responded accordingly. Danshui spring increased the layout of dilemma reversal opportunities. This general strategic direction continues to this day. He pointed out that on the one hand, the economy is still under pressure; On the other hand, since this year, some layouts in the portfolio have been phased opportunities and have not been greatly affected. "We also need to sell these defensive assets and replace them with stocks that have fallen sharply and have a pessimistic market sentiment since this year, so as to strengthen the portfolio aggressiveness through this optimization method."
In addition to the full position operation, the stock selection strategy of minority investment has also changed from cautious to positive, increasing the second direction of investment with high prosperity and partial growth, forming an investment strategy based on value and supplemented by growth. Specifically, since the end of February, minority investment has increased the coal industry with improved fundamentals, as well as the Internet, nonferrous metals, chemical industry, electronics, computers, medical devices and other industries on the basis of continuing to hold large cap value stocks such as banks and real estate.
Based on the judgment that the high-quality growth style is ushering in the repair, Shicheng investment said that it will focus on the scientific and technological high-end manufacturing industry with core competitiveness. At the same time, the stock price repair of the pan pharmaceutical sector will continue, and the pan consumer sector will also face a retaliatory rebound before and after the inflection point of the epidemic. In addition, we are optimistic about inflation transactions periodically, such as internationally priced metals.
Danyi investment said it would pay more attention to high-end consumption and services with large long-term space, good competition pattern and short-term suppression due to the epidemic, as well as software opportunities with long adjustment time and low valuation. For some new energy sources and semiconductors with high expectations in the early stage and mechanism reconfiguration, it is necessary to track the fundamentals more and choose the configuration after the differences are resolved.
Oriental marathon also said that from the perspective of structure, several popular sectors have fallen to historical low ranges, including the Internet industry, biomedical industry and technology industry. "We firmly believe that this is a historic opportunity for value investment. We are still optimistic about China's consumer services and scientific and technological manufacturing, American scientific and technological innovation, and high-end and even luxury consumer goods with historical deposits in Europe."
For the real estate sector with strong recent rise, Danyi investment analysis said that the strength of real estate is a reflection of the great downward pressure on China's economy and the successive relaxation of favorable policies such as purchase and loan restrictions. The rise of optimism led to the improvement of valuation and the rise of stock price. When there are few opportunities in the whole market, the sector offering valuation (game) has become an export with abundant liquidity of a shares. From the perspective of structure, the sectors such as real estate speculation expectations and valuation may still be dominant, but under the premise of lack of long-term logic, the valuation repair may stop abruptly at any time.
Botong investment believes that from the perspective of correcting the deviation of the current real estate policy, it is still the main tone of the urban implementation policy. Recently, many regions have adjusted the real estate policy in succession. Whether the current scattered policy can reverse the pessimistic expectations of the market is still unclear. It is expected that with the dominance of economic stall risk, the follow-up real estate policies may make greater efforts to correct the deviation, and the inflection point of real estate sales data is also likely to become the inflection point of economic expectation and A-share risk preference.
