In the first quarter of 2022, the stock index fell by 10.65%, and the gem fell by 19.96%.
How will the market go in the second quarter and beyond? Where are the main risk points? Which sectors have more opportunities?
The reporter of China fund daily interviewed 10 well-known investment researchers from 10 public offering companies. They are Yu Guang, assistant general manager of Jingshun great wall and general manager of stock investment department, Tao can, general manager of Equity Investment Department of CCB fund, Fang Han, director of stock strategy research of Harvest Fund, Tang Xiaodong, CO general manager of Macro Strategy Department of China Southern Fund, Ma Quansheng, chief strategy analyst of Wells Fargo fund, Niu Yong, deputy director of active equity investment of Huatai Bairui, Li Yongxing, deputy general manager and equity investment director of YONGYING fund, Zhu Jianming, deputy general manager of Baoying equity investment department, Zhang Yingjun, research director of Bodao fund and general manager of fund investment department, and Yuan Weide, fund manager of China Europe, jointly feel the A-share market and explore investment opportunities.
The above public offering people believe that the policy bottom has been realized, and the profit bottom may be gradually verified in the second quarter; In terms of investment direction, "steady growth" or the main line in the first half of the year, and the investment opportunities in the second half of the year mainly come from "structural adjustment".
overall valuation is at a low level
equity market is basically attractive
China Fund News: has the A-share adjustment been in place? What stage is the current valuation level in?
Yu Guang: the market has undergone substantial adjustment since the end of last year, and the overall valuation level is at a relatively low level in history. The policy has a strong determination to stabilize growth, and the bottom of market profit may be gradually verified in the second quarter. The overall downward space of the A-share index is not large, and the future market probability will gradually build the bottom area through time.
Tang Xiaodong: A shares have various statements, such as policy bottom, sentiment bottom, valuation bottom, market bottom and so on. Now, everyone generally regards the special meeting of the Finance Committee on March 16 as the end of the policy; Judging from the extreme point of time in March, the extent of market decline and the difficulty of issuing public funds, the emotional bottom has also been met. However, there are still differences on the bottom of the market. Some people think it will be a second bottom. In fact, no matter what the bottom is, as long as it is the bottom, it should be dealt with from the buying perspective, but the buying levels corresponding to different bottoms are different.
Fang Han: A shares have experienced a three-year structural bull market, and many stocks have high valuations. This year, the stock market will be dominated by loose policy, and the liquidity will basically move towards a stable level.
Since the beginning of the year, the macro background has been extremely complex, and four macro clues have become the core variables leading the market: first, the expectation of stable growth in China has been strengthened, second, the Federal Reserve has accelerated interest rate hikes, third, the geopolitical conflict between Russia and Ukraine, and fourth, the escalation of the epidemic in China. The four main lines are intertwined. With the secondary risks of China concept shares and Hong Kong shares, it has contributed to the outflow of market funds, low risk preference and style switching.
In terms of the length and range of decline, A-Shares should gradually approach the bottom, and the CSI 300 index and SSE 50 index also meet the conditions for reaching the bottom. The core 300 companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets are in the bottom area with great long-term investment value as a whole.
Ma Quansheng: at present, the median valuation of A-share market is 27 times, which is equivalent to the valuation level at the bottom of four rounds of A-share market in 2005, 2008, 2012 and 2018; At the same time, the stock price ratio exceeds that of bonds, large-scale individual stocks "break the net" and investor sentiment is depressed. The A-share market has the characteristics of "bottom".
Niu Yong: the CSI 300 fell by about 30% from the high point in February 2021 to April 8. The adjustment time is more than 13 months, and the adjustment range is close to 2018, which is more than 2018. However, compared with 2018, the current round of monetary policy and capital market policy are more favorable. Except for the adjustment of real estate development loan policy from the second half of 2021, the overall stability of monetary policy has adequate liquidity, without the significant non-standard contraction in 2018 and the rapid de leveraging of capital market. In addition, at the macro level in 2018, there was also the pressure of trade disputes on exports, which is more complex than the current macro environment. Although the market is worried that the Fed has raised interest rates more than expected, China's interest rate and fiscal policy expectations are opposite to overseas directions, which is policy support rather than policy repression for a shares.
Zhu Jianming: the A-share adjustment is the result of the comprehensive influence of multiple factors. On the one hand, the epidemic has repeatedly increased the pressure on the economy, especially the epidemic in Shanghai and its spillover have a great impact on the manufacturing industry. The market is worried about the uncertain results of our adherence to dynamic clearing. On the other hand, the external environment such as geopolitics and overseas liquidity is also unfriendly. Although A-Shares have experienced several months of adjustment, the overall valuation level is not high, and our long-term optimistic growth direction has been significantly underestimated.
first half opportunities grow steadily
in the second half of the year, focus on structural adjustment
China Fund News: looking forward to the second quarter and beyond, what is the macroeconomic environment? Under the comprehensive influence of monetary policy, fiscal policy, epidemic situation and overseas market, what are the overall investment opportunities of a shares?
Tao can: there is great pressure on stable growth in the macro economy in the short term. The investment opportunities in the A-share market are concentrated in the field of stable growth in the first half of the year and mainly in the field of structural adjustment in the second half of the year.
Yu Guang: the policy cycle dislocation caused by the dislocation of China US economic cycle continues. For China, accelerating the pace of credit expansion and strengthening the actual driving of the economy are the key to the current policy. In the context of relatively friendly policies, market sentiment is expected to gradually pick up.
Fang Han: in the first quarter, the internal and external macro risks were intertwined, the market faced more than expected interference factors, the pressure on the overall risk appetite and the negative capital feedback under the accumulation of continuous money loss effect led to the decline of the market. At present, there are signs of stabilization in the total index of the stock market, and the sharp decline has digested a series of expected shocks. There is a high probability that the two internal factors of steady growth and epidemic situation will gradually improve in the second quarter. The turnaround of the upward trend of the global inflation center and the tightening of overseas liquidity may wait until the second half of the year. In terms of allocation clues, industries with low priority valuation, strong performance certainty and boom at the bottom, and may benefit from the improvement of the epidemic and China's economy; In addition, we are optimistic about the growth direction of determining growth, sharply shrinking valuation with the growth stocks as a whole and rarely impacted by costs.
Yuan Weide: after the second quarter, the adverse factors restricting the market are expected to be lifted one by one: China's epidemic will eventually be controlled and the economy will bottom out; The US economy has gradually peaked, and the market's concerns about overseas liquidity have gradually slowed down; The rising momentum of commodity prices weakened, and the profit margin of Chinese manufacturing enterprises bottomed out and rebounded. However, although the relative valuation of the current market has a strong attraction in all major categories of assets, with the continuous downward movement of the interest rate center, the absolute valuation of the equity market has increased compared with the low point in 2018. In the absence of systemic risk, it is expected to obtain a return matching the growth of enterprises, but the income from the rapid expansion of valuation in the past three years is difficult to sustain.
Tang Xiaodong: affected by the downturn in real estate and the impact of the epidemic in Shanghai and Shenzhen, the short-term economic pressure is relatively large. In the second quarter, it is expected that with the effective anti epidemic and the implementation of active macro policies, the economy will improve month on month.
Ma Quansheng: at present, the economy is in the downward bottoming stage since the second quarter of last year. The cost impact caused by the sharp rise in commodity prices caused by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the weak risk appetite under the expectation of interest rate increase by the Federal Reserve are superimposed. The market is reflected in the shock bottoming process after the "policy bottom". It is expected that China's economic growth rate will be gradually upward this year. The GDP growth rate in the fourth quarter of last year was 4.0%, and the target for this year is 5.5%, which will promote economic growth. This is the decisive force of the market center and the biggest difference from the quarterly decline in economic fundamentals last year.
In the short term, it will take time to repair the emotional side of a shares. However, in the medium and long term, the Chinese market is still resilient to global fluctuations. As a manufacturing power, China has a relatively complete industrial chain and sound economic fundamentals, which has enhanced the ability of China's economy to resist external shocks. Therefore, the impact of global inflation risk, Russia Ukraine conflict and other factors on the Chinese market is more controllable. Around the second quarter, in the market environment with controllable inflation and reasonable and abundant liquidity, the continuous development of the steady growth policy is expected to bring the growth prospect of A-Shares and boost the market into the medium-term upward range.
Niu Yong: the current macro environment is in the bottom recovery stage. First, the market basically agreed that the central economic work conference in December last year set the tone of "stabilizing the economy", and the end of the policy has appeared; On March 16, vice premier Liu He made a speech on the financial market, which further clarified the bottom of the policy.
With the gradual implementation of policies, the epidemic situation in China is alleviated, the economic probability can hit the bottom and rise in the second quarter, and the capital market may usher in the re layout of incremental funds. Whether it is the cyclical undervalued sector highly related to the economy, or the growth sector with historically low valuation and determined growth, it is expected to usher in significant medium and long-term opportunities.
Li Yongxing: at the macro level, global inflation may ease, but it is still high, overseas liquidity continues to tighten, the downward pressure on China's economy will ease, and policies will continue to be loose. At present, the local epidemic situation has repeatedly disturbed the downstream demand, but with strong prevention and control measures, it is expected that the epidemic situation in the middle and later stages of the second quarter is expected to ease and the downward pressure on the economy will be reduced. At the same time, the direction of China's policy easing is clear, and the subsequent monetary and credit policy easing is expected to be gradually implemented, providing strong support for stabilizing the macro-economic market.
Looking forward to the future, in the short term, the index will undergo shock consolidation, and in the medium term, the market opportunities outweigh the risks.
Zhang Yingjun: in terms of policy, monetary policy and fiscal policy are conducive to the A-share market; On the economic side, the probability of the economy forming an inflection point in the first quarter is very high. The two important bottoms in 2009 and 2019 are policy bottoms, then market bottoms, and finally economic bottoms. At present, the market is at the bottom stage, and the space for continuous downward is limited.
From last December to now, A-Shares have been adjusted for more than four months, and the decline in the rate will not exceed six months. Although the new development of early-stage funds is cold and many financial funds leave the market, this part of funds needs to be reallocated. After the market no longer falls sharply and the shock adjustment, the funds will still return to the stock market.
Zhu Jianming: in the second quarter, the macroeconomic environment was mainly disturbed by epidemic prevention and control and real estate policies, and was in the observation period. Only when the macro factors are relatively clear can the market regain its upward trend. We have full confidence in the resilience of China's economy and the flexibility of policies. For long-term investors, it is a better time to enter the market.
China Fund News: what are the main factors affecting the operation of A-Shares in the future? What are the potential risks?
Yu Guang: potential risks include faster than expected decline in profits, lower than expected easing policies or infrastructure drag down policies in China, higher than expected inflation in the United States, faster rate increase and contraction, the spread of the global energy and food crisis, and the uncertainty of the evolution of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.
Tao can: there are two main factors affecting the operation of A-Shares in the future. One is whether China's economic growth can stabilize, such as whether real estate investment and sales can stabilize; Second, whether consumption can stabilize. If overseas inflation factors improve, A-Shares are expected to strengthen.
The main risk factor is that overseas countries control inflation by raising interest rates, that is, solve the inflation caused by supply shortage by restraining demand, which may lead to the risk of economic stall and decline.
Fang Han: due to the disturbance of the epidemic, it will take time for funds to reduce outflow and regain confidence to attract inflow. It will take time to resolve the pressure of cluster collapse in the direction of high prosperity. The energy price center caused by tightening overseas liquidity and geopolitical tension will remain high. Therefore, the market will not rebound overnight, so as to form an overall opportunity. It is more the rhythm of shock upward.
Tang Xiaodong: the hard landing of overseas macro-economy is a great risk. China's macroeconomic and policy position is relatively friendly to the market, and the probability of risk may be small.
Ma Quansheng: corporate profitability is the core driving force of A-Shares in the future, and market sentiment is also the main influencing factor. At present, a variety of risk factors have been fully released. In the follow-up, we still need to pay attention to the potential risks such as the Fed's interest rate hike and table contraction and the butterfly effect under the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.
Niu Yong: at present, the market is at a historically low valuation level and has full expectations for future policies. On the whole, the market is at a good starting point. In the future, more attention will be paid to the growth certainty of growth varieties, including the performance fulfillment in the second and third quarters. The growth quality with high performance certainty or even higher than expected has the flexibility of valuation repair. In addition, in the steady growth sector, the market will focus on those segments that can benefit from early orders, such as infrastructure orders, or real estate companies that can significantly increase their market share. When the company has the elasticity of the market, the product will rebound again.
The potential market risk lies in the capital flow caused by the rebalancing of global asset allocation under the complexity of geopolitical risk. This probability is small, but it is also one of the risk factors worthy of attention.
Main influencing factors and economic fundamentals
along the main line of steady growth and the first quarter report exceeding expectations
China Fund News: what is the overall planning and context of future investment layout? Which sectors and industries have more prominent investment opportunities?
Tao can: in combination with the matching degree of fundamentals and valuation, we are more optimistic about the opportunities in relevant industries in the field of "structural adjustment", such as food and beverage, new energy, electronics, medicine, etc. we will pay particular attention to the targets with large valuation adjustment and excellent fundamentals in the traditional fund heavy position industry.
Yu Guang: it is expected that there will still be some performance in the direction of "steady growth". At the same time, after the early correction of growth stocks, the cost performance is improved, and the valuation level is expected to gradually obtain support, which is suitable for bargain hunting to absorb booming stocks. In addition, affected by the epidemic and slow economic recovery, the consumption performance is weak, but after more than a year of adjustment, the valuation of many high-quality companies has been very attractive, providing better allocation opportunities for long-term funds; Focus on the targets of new energy, some consumer stocks and some cyclical stocks.
Tang Xiaodong: this year's overall planning can be summarized as "active layout and patient waiting". Positive layout means that there is no systematic risk in the market. The overall operation strategy is to find good buying opportunities and targets. Patient waiting means that holding gains may not be able to be realized in the short term, or some long-term promising targets can patiently wait for good intervention opportunities. In terms of rhythm, we should pay attention to two time points. One is the implementation of steady growth policies in the second and third quarters, which will affect the allocation of traditional value sectors; Focus on the long-term growth sector in the second half of the year, and some targets may have better cost performance.
Fang Han: from the perspective of marginal improvement direction, valuation, capital structure and other factors, benefiting from China's steady growth and epidemic improvement is a direction worth grasping in the short term; Stage is still dominated by value style; Real estate, the required (Agriculture) industry chain, new energy vehicles, military industry, power and Hong Kong stock Internet are worth matching. After the improvement of real estate data, the Baijiu and building materials stocks related to the selected consumption and real estate industry chain can be increased.
Ma Quansheng: at present, the market's expectation of stable growth policy is high. Based on this, we should look for marginal changes in policies and potential areas of support, including infrastructure, real estate and related industrial chains to stabilize demand, such as home appliances, home furnishings, building materials, especially new energy infrastructure.
At the same time, for the middle and lower reaches of the consumer sector that has been adjusted this year, with relatively cheap valuation and clear medium and long-term prospects, it is necessary to select more stocks from the bottom up and look for alpha opportunities; The manufacturing sector with short-term oversold and high medium-term prosperity still has allocation value, including new energy and semiconductors. Asset allocation can be carried out according to the prosperity changes of different links of the industrial chain.
Recently, the economic, financial and corporate earnings data have been released one after another, which has become the core clue closely watched by the market, focusing on finding the direction in which the performance exceeds expectations.
Niu Yong: the promising direction in the future is mainly high-quality growth stocks in the new energy sector with performance certainty and growth space, as well as consumer medicine varieties with valuation safety margin. The current valuation level of such companies has returned to a very low position in history.
For the new energy sector, there are differences in the current market on the transfer of costs and whether downstream consumers accept price increases. We believe that the head battery enterprise has the ability to transfer costs.
CXO, the leading company in other consumer sectors, especially the company with the first layout in the field of cell gene therapy, has good growth, and the current valuation is reasonably low. The current valuation of high growth companies in food and beverage is less than 40 times. The performance growth rate next year is highly determined and has medium-term configuration value.
Yuan Weide: from a long-term perspective, high-quality companies in the middle and downstream manufacturing industry are constantly accumulating cost or technical advantages. With the precipitation of time, their products gradually move from the middle and low end to the middle and high end with higher difficulty and stronger barriers, and become more and more competitive in the world. These companies can be said to be the backbone of China's manufacturing industry and are valuable assets in the world. These companies are not only distributed in traditional industries, but also in emerging industries represented by new energy, communications, electronics and military industry. In addition, after recent adjustment, the valuation of the service industry represented by Internet, computer and consumption is also very reasonable, and the high-quality companies have strong investment value.
Zhu Jianming: this year, it should be difficult for any sector to get out of the extreme style of the past two years.
Li Yongxing: at this stage, we need to carry out planning along the main line of steady growth and the first quarterly report exceeding expectations. Specifically, first, the real estate and building materials, household appliances, furniture and other real estate chains: the relaxation of real estate policies, the expectation of continuous warming, and the gradual resolution of real estate credit risk are expected to drive the further repair of real estate valuation. 2、 Banks and securities companies: China's policy easing expectations continue to heat up. High dividend sectors such as banks and securities companies are both safe and policy driven, and can attack and retreat. 3、 The first quarterly report is better than expected: the sectors with better than expected performance in the quarterly report period generally perform better. Among the stocks that disclosed the advance notice of the first quarterly report in advance and expected earnings, they focused on some sub sectors of growth industries such as semiconductor, military industry and medicine, as well as upstream resource industries such as chemical industry, nonferrous metals and coal.
Zhang Yingjun: there are two main ways for public funds to create excess returns: one is to hold as many bull stocks as possible for a long time in the portfolio. These companies should look for the core driving force of national economic growth, and the other is to control the withdrawal. Withdrawal is actually another form of long-term compound interest.
At present, the first main line of investment is still new energy. The current debate in the market is more in the short term, for example, in the dimension of 3-6 months or one year. However, new energy, especially photovoltaic and new energy vehicles, is a once-in-a-decade investment opportunity, because one of the main focuses of China's economic transformation is the green economy. Secondly, there are medicine, mainly CXO, artificial intelligence, cloud computing, semiconductors, etc.
middle and high positions operate with more balanced positions
China Fund News: has your company recently carried out position optimization, inter sector adjustment or strategy optimization for future market prediction? What is the direction of adjustment?
Tao can: in the first half of the year, we have laid out some areas of steady growth. In the second half of the year, we will focus on investment in structural adjustment, but only if steady growth is effective in the second half of the year and overseas inflation is controllable.
Zhu Jianming: the position may not change very much. The current position has good fundamentals and high cost performance.
Li Yongxing: at present, the basic adjustment of A-Shares is in place, the valuation cost performance is prominent, the follow-up market opportunities are expected to outweigh the risks, and we are optimistic about the investment value of A-Shares in the medium and long term. Therefore, we maintain the operation of medium and high positions. Structurally, the positions are more balanced, with a layout of steady growth and growth. Recently, we pay more attention to the stable growth sector represented by banks and real estate, and are still optimistic about the growth direction for a long time. At present, some of the targets may have high investment value, and we are also considering the low-level layout.
ZhangYingJun: there are many short-term impact factors in the market, but investment is a long-term thing. My portfolio is constructed from a long-term perspective. The market continues to evolve, and the emotion will return to rationality after deducting to a certain stage. Although some undervalued stocks may rise, the space is limited, and the position based on the long-term perspective may face some uncertainty in the short term, but it will eventually create an unmistakable excess return for the portfolio.
