The pharmaceutical sector, which has been depressed for a long time, has shown signs of recovery recently. In the past month, China Meheco Group Co.Ltd(600056) , Shanxi Zhendong Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(300158) , tynkon, Shijiazhuang Yiling Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002603) , Ningbo Menovo Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603538) and other stocks have rebounded by more than 50%, and the net value of many pharmaceutical theme funds has also risen one after another. At the current time point, has the pharmaceutical stock been adjusted in place? Has the pharmaceutical theme fund ushered in the “boarding” time point?
According to Fang Yuhan, fund manager of Shanghai Investment Morgan, there are two reasons for this round of adjustment in the pharmaceutical industry: one is the reasonable correction of high valuation, and the other is that there are a variety of negative factors in the industry. However, Fang Yuhan is still full of confidence in the investment prospects of the pharmaceutical industry. She said that from a long-term perspective, a number of high-quality companies with growth and barriers can still emerge in the pharmaceutical industry, and the background color of “long slope and thick snow” in this industry has not changed.
Referring to the current valuation and cost performance of the pharmaceutical track, Fang Yuhan said that first of all, from the disclosed performance in 2021, the growth of many leading players in the pharmaceutical industry is still strong. Whether it is capacity expansion, capacity utilization, order volume, newly recruited employees and other indicators show a high-speed growth momentum. In addition, from the perspective of valuation, the compound annual growth rate of the performance of many companies is expected to reach 30% to 40%, and is expected to last for more than three years. Under the normal market environment, a pharmaceutical company with barriers can match the valuation of 30 to 40 times with the performance growth rate of 30 to 40%. At present, there are not a few such companies. Therefore, at the valuation level, the pharmaceutical industry does not have many adverse factors. “After early adjustment, many targets in the pharmaceutical industry have entered the configuration range with high investment cost performance.”
Looking forward to the future, Fang Yuhan focuses on investment opportunities in innovative drugs and their industrial chain, Innovation Medical Management Co.Ltd(002173) devices, vaccines, consumption upgrading and medical services, especially innovative drugs and their industrial chain. In Fang Yuhan’s view, innovation is the core driving force for the long-term upward development of the pharmaceutical industry. At present, China has gradually caught up with the pace of overseas research and development of innovative drugs and emerged in the international market. The future development is worth looking forward to. At the same time, innovative drugs have entered a reasonable range of valuation. Under the background of strong demand for orders and rapid expansion of production capacity, it is still the sector with the strongest performance certainty and growth in the pharmaceutical industry.
Dacheng Fund said that from the second half of 2021, after a continuous sharp decline in the pharmaceutical sector, the valuation pressure has been greatly released. The overall valuation level of biomedical sector has dropped to about 29 times, which is about 10% from low to high in recent 10 years.
In the view of Dacheng Fund, the current pharmaceutical sector has entered a better area of medium and long-term layout, both in terms of fundamentals and valuation. However, due to the high professional requirements of the pharmaceutical industry, there are high investment and research barriers for investors and even fund managers. Therefore, fund managers with deep professional background and excellent medium and short-term performance are rare excellent “medical hunters” in the market.
