Today (April 11), the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets opened at a low level, followed by a decline in inertia and continued to weaken, showing a pulse downward pattern, with a clear view of the weak.
From the disk point of view, the light index focuses on individual stocks, the industry and concept sectors fall more or rise less, the profit-making effect is concentrated, and the news sector benefits. The performance of the department store and the prefabricated food sector was also prominent, including the group purchase and the logistics sector. In addition, the subject matter of the industrial chain such as agriculture and aquaculture also performed well, and the concept of civil explosion also changed frequently.
It is worth noting that recently, the concept of “community group purchase” has been put into the air, and Better Life Commercial Chain Share Co.Ltd(002251) , Sanjiang Shopping Club Co.Ltd(601116) , Great-Sun Foods Co.Ltd(603336) , Haixin Foods Co.Ltd(002702) , Eternal Asia Supply Chain Management Ltd(002183) , etc. have staged a rising tide.
At present, under the background of scattered A-share hotspots and intensified sector rotation, possible investment opportunities are hidden. Select some institutional research reports. Let’s see what themes are available for reference.
[theme 1] concept of civil explosion
Shengang Securities pointed out that in 2022, the civil explosives industry is expected to continue its boom. On the one hand, thanks to the favorable policies at the end of the year, enterprises with advantages in large scale, advanced technology, perfect product structure and cost control will increase their market share in the future, and the industrial concentration will be further improved. On the other hand, driven by the improvement of China’s energy demand and infrastructure investment demand, the supply and demand pattern of the civil explosives industry is improving, and the leaders of relevant industries are expected to continue to benefit. It is suggested to pay attention to the leaders of Hunan Nanling Industry Explosive Material Co.Ltd(002096) , Shanxi Huhua Group Co.Ltd(003002) and other related industries with scale advantages and technical barriers.
Everbright Securities Company Limited(601788) mentioned that civil explosives are mainly industrial explosives and industrial detonators, and qualification barriers and regionality are important characteristics of the industry. Civil explosives are the general name of various industrial explosives and their products, initiation equipment and industrial initiating explosive devices. In order to ensure the safety of scientific research, production, sales, storage, transportation and use of civil explosive equipment, the State implements a special control management access system for the civil explosive industry, so the industry has significant qualification barriers. At the same time, civil explosives are flammable, explosive and highly dangerous. Chinese laws and regulations strictly supervise the transportation of civil explosives, and the long-distance transportation of products will enhance the safety risk of civil explosives enterprises. Therefore, the principle of “nearby and local” is generally adopted for the purchase and sales of Civil Explosives, resulting in obvious regional characteristics of the civil explosives industry.
China’s civil explosive industry has long been characterized by low industrial concentration and overcapacity. National policies encourage upstream and downstream enterprises linked by the industrial chain to carry out resource integration and business extension, promote the integration process and promote the improvement of industrial concentration, so as to resolve the problem of overcapacity. During the 13th Five Year Plan period, the number of production enterprises (groups) in the civil explosive industry continued to decrease and the industrial concentration continued to increase; The 14th five year plan proposes that by 2025, the number of production enterprises (groups) in the civil explosive industry will be further reduced to no more than 50, the proportion of the industrial GDP of the top 10 civil explosive enterprises will be further increased to no less than 60%, and a 3-5 large civil explosive integrated enterprise with strong industrial driving force and international competitiveness will be formed. With the continuous promotion of supply side reform and the continuation of the trend of civil explosive integration, it is expected that the industry leaders will benefit significantly.
[Theme 2] community group purchase
How to view the community group buying track under supervision Sealand Securities Co.Ltd(000750) mentioned that benqingyuan has both opportunities and challenges. (1) what is the development of community group purchase policy, industry environment and competition pattern at this stage? 1) In terms of industrial policies: the overall origin is traced back, but the commercial value of group buying and the direction of encouraging community digitization remain unchanged; 2) In terms of business environment: the clearing of the industry is accelerated, the market returns to rationality, and provides fine operation soil; 3) In terms of competition pattern: the scale of players who have entered the game has initially taken shape, and the strong is always strong; It is less difficult for new entrants to realize regional “small and beautiful” operation, but it is more difficult to scale up.
(2) what are the opportunities and challenges for users, leaders and commodity sides at this stage? 1) User level: the sinking market is active, and the proportion of users in the main station is low; 2) Head level: Supervision accelerates the transformation from “extensive operation with high commission” to “fine operation with reasonable commission”; 3) Commodity level: at present, the share of brands is limited, but the growth rate is expected to be high, and there is a large space for fresh food penetration in the sinking area.
(3) what is the market space of community group purchase? Mainly based on the perspective of user penetration and category penetration, this paper forecasts the scale of purchasing users, annual purchasing frequency, unit price of parts, customer unit price and penetration rate of various categories respectively, and comes to the following conclusions: 1) if the current model is maintained, the neutral forecast will reach 1.33 trillion yuan in 2023; 2) If we upgrade to near-field community e-commerce, the neutral forecast will reach 1.6 trillion yuan in 2023.
In addition, Shanghai Securities pointed out that the epidemic prevention and control is becoming stricter, and real-time retail and community group purchase and other business forms may benefit: the self operated mode of real-time retail e-commerce, such as daily excellent fresh food, Ding Dong shopping, box horse, meituan shopping and so on; O2o platform modes, such as Jingdong home, taoxianda, hungry, meituan flash purchase, etc; Community group purchase, such as meituan optimization, buying more vegetables, panning vegetables, etc. Suggested attention: JD group and HEMA (Alibaba).
[Theme 3] prefabricated dishes
Shenyin Wanguo Securities said that Kwai Chai is a finished product or semi-finished product made from agricultural, livestock, poultry and aquatic products, which is made up of excipients, and processed through pretreatment. It is a form of food between the food and catering industry, and is a fast food product that is produced by food processing enterprises and central kitchen.
From the perspective of development stage, the b-end of Chinese prefabricated dishes is in the stage of accelerated penetration and the C-end is initially concerned due to the catalysis of the epidemic. For 2B consumers, prefabricated dishes can not only improve the efficiency and standardization of meals, but also save labor costs; For 2C consumers, prefabricated dishes can simplify cooking steps while providing delicious food. We estimate that the scale of China’s Prefabricated vegetable industry will be about 240 billion in 2021. Under the resonance of 2B and 2C demand, the industry is expected to expand to nearly 480 billion in 2025, with CAGR of about 18%.
At present, there are many new entrants. The types of enterprises can be divided into six categories: traditional prefabricated vegetable enterprises, quick-frozen enterprises, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery enterprises, fresh retail platform, catering central kitchen and catering supply chain platform. In the short term, the industry pattern is expected to remain fragmented; In the medium and long term, we are optimistic about enterprises with the advantages of upstream supply chain, midstream product design and downstream channel sales.
In addition, Minsheng Securities pointed out that the epidemic catalyzes both supply and demand, and the actual penetration rate has increased. Due to the limited hall food, catering enterprises have made efforts to take out, prefabricated dishes and other non hall food businesses, and the number of prefabricated dishes has increased greatly. At the same time, there is a huge demand for cooking and goods storage during the period of home isolation, and the restriction of hall food during the festival has also stimulated the demand of the family banquet market. During the epidemic period, the outbreak of the industry has cultivated consumer awareness, and catering, new retail, new consumption and other enterprises have entered the market one after another, making extensive exploration in the consumption scene and price band, so as to lay a foundation for the development of C-end in the future.
At present, the industry is still in the early stage of development. Under the demand of catering enterprises to reduce costs and increase efficiency, the demand of b-end is relatively clear. We expect that the long-term market space of Chinese food prefabricated dishes at b-end is expected to exceed trillion. Due to the wide variety of Chinese food and huge differences in cooking technology, the industry pattern of overall dispersion and concentration of categories may appear in the future. Focus on three types of investment opportunities: 1) enterprises with automation and large-scale production end and the ability to create large single products will occupy a high market share in the advantageous categories by virtue of cost-effective advantages. It is recommended that Fu Jian Anjoy Foods Co.Ltd(603345) ; 2) Enterprises with excellent single store model and moat “central kitchen + terminal” mode relying on supply chain recommend Zhongyin Babi Food Co.Ltd(605338) , Suzhou Weizhixiang Food Co.Ltd(605089) .
[theme 4] agriculture, animal husbandry, feeding and fishery
The Pacific Securities Co.Ltd(601099) Securities pointed out that pig prices have stopped falling and rising recently, and the cyclical inflection point has become clearer. At present, the high food price makes it difficult for the breeding cost to stay high, superimposed with the low pig price, the pig industry is still in the stage of substantial loss, and the capacity removal will continue. Maintain the judgment that the capacity removal of the industry has accelerated in the near future and the cyclical reversal of pig price is imminent. In terms of valuation, the market value of most individual stocks is still below the reasonable value, with a good margin of safety, maintaining the “optimistic” rating of the sector. Four gold pigs that have been significantly underestimated are highly recommended, and four golden pigs that have been significantly underestimated, with the Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) \ .
Sinolink Securities Co.Ltd(600109) said that at present, the valuation of pig breeding stocks is relatively low. It is suggested to look at the long term from the short term, and pay attention to the cyclical upward certainty expectation brought by the deregulation of production capacity. Key recommendations: Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) : cost leadership, strong growth certainty, Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) : sufficient capital reserves and effective cost control in the near future.
In addition, in the current environment of rising global food prices and restrictions on food exports in many countries, transgenic technology is expected to accelerate the implementation. Key recommendations: Yuan Longping High-Tech Agriculture Co.Ltd(000998) : abundant reserves of transgenic technology, Shandong Denghai Seeds Co.Ltd(002041) : corn seeds are expected to increase both quantity and price.
In addition, at present, China’s white feather chicken supply level is at an all-time high, and the chicken price continues to be depressed. If the customs is closed later, it will benefit the promotion of domestic ancestral chicken and the prosperity of white feather chicken industry. It is expected that the price elasticity of ancestral chicken is better than that of commodity generation. Highlights: Fujian Sunner Development Co.Ltd(002299) : own ancestral breeding chickens, sell breeding chickens and parental generation chicken seedlings.
Guosen Securities Co.Ltd(002736) mentioned that the reversal of pig cycle is ready to accelerate, and the reversal time point at the bottom of white chicken cycle is approaching. We believe that 2022 is the best stage to lay out the pig sector in advance, and the pig cycle in 2023 is likely to reverse the market. The recent significant rise in the cost of feed raw materials may accelerate the reversal of the pig price cycle and further strengthen the expectation of sector reversal. It is expected that the stock of fertile sows may continue to be removed with the decline of pig price in the first half of 2022, which is expected to further catalyze the sector.
