Daily theme strategy discussion, summarize the views of the eight securities companies, reveal the current situation of the industry, observe the market trend, and feel the pulse of A-Shares for you in advance.
Sinolink Securities Co.Ltd(600109) : at present, the valuation of pig breeding stocks is at a relatively low level, paying attention to the cyclical upward certainty caused by the deregulation of production capacity
At present, the valuation of pig breeding stocks is at a relatively low level. It is suggested to look at the long term from the short term, and pay attention to the cyclical upward certainty expectation brought by the deregulation of production capacity. Key recommendations: Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) : cost leadership, strong growth certainty, Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) : sufficient capital reserves and effective cost control in the near future.
In addition, in the current environment of rising global food prices and restrictions on food exports in many countries, transgenic technology is expected to accelerate the implementation. Key recommendations: Yuan Longping High-Tech Agriculture Co.Ltd(000998) : abundant reserves of transgenic technology, Shandong Denghai Seeds Co.Ltd(002041) : corn seeds are expected to increase both quantity and price.
In addition, at present, China’s white feather chicken supply level is at an all-time high, and the chicken price continues to be depressed. If the customs is closed later, it will benefit the promotion of domestic ancestral chicken and the prosperity of white feather chicken industry. It is expected that the price elasticity of ancestral chicken is better than that of commodity generation. Highlights: Fujian Sunner Development Co.Ltd(002299) : own ancestral breeding chickens, sell breeding chickens and parental generation chicken seedlings.
China Merchants Securities Co.Ltd(600999) : the rise in grain prices is expected to drive the prosperity of the seed industry upward, and continue to be firmly optimistic about the seed sector
This month’s report raised the global corn, wheat and cotton production forecast for 2021 / 2022, and revised down the soybean production forecast again. Combined with the change of demand, it is expected that the global corn is still in a tight balance between supply and demand, and the demand gap of soybean, wheat and cotton continues to expand. We are optimistic about the prices of corn, soybean and wheat outside China in the later period. We judge that the rising cost of feed raw materials is expected to lead to the intensification of the production capacity of sows and the gradual reversal of the cycle. We continue to firmly recommend the pig sector. It is recommended to choose high-quality self breeding leading pig enterprises, improved operation Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) and cost-effective piglets Leshan Giantstar Farming&Husbandry Corporation Limited(603477) etc. The rise in grain prices is expected to drive the prosperity of the seed industry upward, continue to be firmly optimistic about the seed sector, recommend Yuan Longping High-Tech Agriculture Co.Ltd(000998) , Shandong Denghai Seeds Co.Ltd(002041) , Beijing Dabeinong Technology Group Co.Ltd(002385) , and suggest paying attention to the target of planting leaders.
Zheshang Securities Co.Ltd(601878) : avian influenza in the United States may affect the supply cycle of white feather chickens in China or start in preparation
The recent covid-19 epidemic prevention and control situation is grim, the transportation of pigs and frozen products is interrupted, and the release of short-term supply is limited. However, the epidemic has impacted on terminal consumption. In April, there may be a risk of further decline in pig prices, breeding losses and hopeless high prices in the second half of the year. Under the background of accelerating the elimination of production capacity in the second quarter is highly certain; The white feather chicken industry chain continues to suffer losses, the contraction of upstream supply accelerates, and the avian influenza in the United States may affect the supply of breeding chickens in China.
For pig breeding, in the cold winter of breeding, we select the target based on the two main lines of “not going bankrupt” and “expected marketing”, and recommend Hunan New Wellful Co.Ltd(600975) , Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) and other enterprises with abundant cash flow and cashable marketing.
For white feather broilers, the industrial chain has experienced losses for more than one year. The deep losses in the downstream inhibit the enthusiasm of column filling. The decline in the price of chicken seedlings affects the profits of the incubator, or forces the chicken farms to take the initiative to reduce production capacity. We may see a month on month contraction in the supply of chicken seedlings in the third quarter of 2022; The outbreak of avian influenza in the United States may affect the import of white feather chicken provenance and aggravate the risk of breeding chicken supply. The white feather chicken cycle may start in preparation. It is recommended that enterprises focusing on the layout of the whole industrial chain business and the elastic target of the upstream main chicken seedling sales business.
For the dynamic insurance sector, it has fallen to a reasonable range due to the drag of pig price. It is expected that the reversal of pig price in the second half of 2022 will lead to the upward prosperity of the industry, and the sector is expected to usher in valuation repair. It is suggested to lay out at a low level. It is recommended to focus on Pulike Biological Engineering Inc(603566) , which has obvious advantages in subunit vaccine research and development, and industry leaders with rich product reserves.
For the planting chain, pay attention to the targets that directly benefit from the rise of grain prices; The rise of grain prices drives the prosperity of seed industry. It is recommended to pay attention to Beijing Dabeinong Technology Group Co.Ltd(002385) (rich reserves of genetically modified traits) and Yuan Longping High-Tech Agriculture Co.Ltd(000998) (the leader of corn and rice seeds).
The Pacific Securities Co.Ltd(601099) Securities: the cyclical inflection point becomes clearer, and the four golden pigs that are obviously underestimated are recommended
Pig prices have stopped falling and rising recently, and the cyclical inflection point is becoming clearer and clearer. At present, the high food price makes it difficult for the breeding cost to stay high, superimposed with the low pig price, the pig industry is still in the stage of substantial loss, and the capacity removal will continue. Maintain the judgment that the capacity removal of the industry has accelerated in the near future and the cyclical reversal of pig price is imminent. In terms of valuation, the market value of most individual stocks is still below the reasonable value, with a good margin of safety, maintaining the “optimistic” rating of the sector. Four gold pigs that have been significantly underestimated are highly recommended, and four golden pigs that have been significantly underestimated, with the Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) \ .
In addition, since Q4 in 2021, the price of yellow chicken has always been above the cost line, and this trend is expected to continue into the second half of the year. In the medium and long term, environmental protection constraints and the transformation of live birds to fresh ice will raise the industry threshold, accelerate the withdrawal of small and medium-sized production capacity and optimize the competition pattern. Maintain the “optimistic” rating of the industry, mainly recommend Jiangsu Lihua Animal Husbandry Co.Ltd(300761) , and pay attention to Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) and Hunan Xiangjia Animal Husbandry Company Limited(002982) .
Guosen Securities Co.Ltd(002736) : Pig cycle reversal is ready to accelerate, and the time point of white chicken cycle bottom reversal is approaching
Livestock and poultry chain: the reversal of pig cycle is ready to accelerate, and the reversal time point at the bottom of white chicken cycle is approaching. 1) Pig: we believe that 2022 is the best stage to lay out the pig sector in advance, and the pig cycle will probably reverse in 2023. The recent significant rise in the cost of feed raw materials may accelerate the reversal of the pig price cycle and further strengthen the expectation of sector reversal. It is expected that the stock of fertile sows may continue to be removed with the decline of pig price in the first half of 2022, which is expected to further catalyze the sector.
At the same time, meat products benefit from the decline in pig prices, and the profit is expected to be further improved in 2022. Recommendations: Zhejiang Huatong Meat Products Co.Ltd(002840) , Fujian Aonong Biological Technology Group Incorporation Limited(603363) , Leshan Giantstar Farming&Husbandry Corporation Limited(603477) , Tecon Biology Co.Ltd(002100) , Dongrui Food Group Co.Ltd(001201) , COFCO Jiakang, Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) , Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) , etc; Attention: Henan Shuanghui Investment & Development Co.Ltd(000895) , Longda food, etc.
2) yellow feather chicken: it is expected that the breeding profit of yellow chicken will improve in 2022, and the recommended high-quality breeding targets: Jiangsu Lihua Animal Husbandry Co.Ltd(300761) , Hunan Xiangjia Animal Husbandry Company Limited(002982) , Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) .
3) white feather chicken: the time point of the reversal of the bottom of the cycle may be approaching, and all breeding links such as chicken seedlings and commercial chickens are in a deep loss state. It is expected that the trend of capacity elimination is expected to accelerate. It is suggested to pay attention to the bottom: Springsnow Food Group Co.Ltd(605567) , Fujian Sunner Development Co.Ltd(002299) , Shandong Yisheng Livestock & Poultry Breeding Co.Ltd(002458) , Shandong Xiantan Co.Ltd(002746) .
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) : at present, the seed production season is close, and relevant biological breeding industrialization measures may be accelerated
Driven by the hoarding caused by the Qingming Festival and the epidemic in some regions, the weekly average price of pigs sold nationwide was 12.08 yuan / kg, up 2.98% month on month. At present, the overall pig supply is still in the stage of surplus. At the same time, the prices of soybean meal and corn are still high, which may accelerate the de production capacity. At the level of listed companies, the worst performance of Chinese listed companies has passed, and breeding stocks are facing emotional and performance repair. It is recommended to continue to pay attention to the pig breeding sector, such as Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) , COFCO jiajiakang, Tecon Biology Co.Ltd(002100) , etc.
At present, the seed production season is approaching, and relevant biological breeding industrialization measures may accelerate the implementation. It is suggested to pay attention to the grain planting sector, and recommend high-quality planting enterprises mainly engaged in rice and wheat Jiangsu Provincial Agricultural Reclamation And Development Co.Ltd(601952) . It is suggested to pay attention to the seed industry sector and recommend Beijing Dabeinong Technology Group Co.Ltd(002385) , which has the leading advantage of biological breeding industrialization, and Shandong Denghai Seeds Co.Ltd(002041) , which has high-quality germplasm resources and variety resources.
In terms of investment suggestions, the bottom of pig price fluctuates, the cost is high, the head loss increases, or it may accelerate the elimination of production capacity. It is recommended to continue to pay attention to Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) , COFCO Jiakang, Tecon Biology Co.Ltd(002100) , etc. At the bottom of dynamic insurance valuation, focus on Pulike Biological Engineering Inc(603566) etc. The policy emphasizes that the way out for food security lies in science and technology, and the seed industry is the foundation. The seed production season is approaching, and relevant biological breeding industrialization measures may accelerate the implementation. It is suggested to pay attention to the seed industry sector and grain planting sector. Recommend Beijing Dabeinong Technology Group Co.Ltd(002385) , a leader in hybrid maize seed industry with high-quality germplasm resources and variety resources, and a high-quality planting enterprise mainly engaged in rice and wheat Jiangsu Provincial Agricultural Reclamation And Development Co.Ltd(601952) . Continue to recommend high growth blue chip stocks Guangdong Haid Group Co.Limited(002311) , Yantai China Pet Foods Co.Ltd(002891) , Fujian Sunner Development Co.Ltd(002299) , etc.
East Asia Qianhai Securities: opening the third round of pork collection and storage and grasping the layout opportunity on the left
Pig breeding: pig prices continued to rise, and the central collection and storage boosted confidence. According to Yongyi information data, on April 1, the price of pigs was 12.37 yuan / kg, up 2.74% on a weekly basis. The national development and Reform Commission plans to collect and store 40000 tons of frozen pork on April 2 and 3, which is expected to accelerate the recovery of pig prices. In the short term, due to the obstruction of marketing caused by covid-19 epidemic in some regions, the pig price continued to rise this week, but the reversal of the overall loose supply and demand fundamentals has not yet come. At present, the downstream consumer demand of the pig market is weak, superimposed with the increase of feed costs, the pig price is in a state of shock, and the clearing of production capacity may show an accelerated trend. It is suggested to grasp the opportunity of layout on the left and pay attention to enterprises with stable production and operation.
Seed industry: Science and technology drive the freedom of seed sources, and actively layout the planting industry chain. On March 30, the people’s Bank of China proposed to increase financial support for important Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) supplies such as soybeans and oil. On March 28, the Ministry of agriculture and rural areas pointed out that the seed industry should be self-reliance and self-improvement in science and technology, and the seed sources should be controlled independently. In terms of market, the conflict situation between Russia and Ukraine is not clear, which may lead to further tightening of global Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) supply. We believe that the grain price may remain high during the year, and the upward elasticity of the performance of grain planting enterprises is expected to be released.
China Galaxy Securities Co.Ltd(601881) Securities: looking at investment in pig breeding sector with cycle thinking and expectation thinking
According to the regular price trend in the past 15 years, may August is the month on month upward stage of pig price, which means the arrival of seasonal consumption market. However, considering that the supply side is still significantly surplus in the second quarter, the trend of pig price may still be at the bottom. At the current time point, we still maintain the original view on the inflection point, or it may appear from June to July; With the evolution of the market and the trend of the data, we will continue to revise the deduction conclusion. At the profit level, on April 8, the profits of China’s self breeding and outsourcing piglet breeding were -511.57 yuan / head and -282.58 yuan / head respectively, which continued to maintain a deep loss. We expect that this trend will continue, and the loss will bring greater cash flow consumption, which will lead to the reduction of production capacity.
From the perspective of investment, before the second bottom, we all think it is a high-quality layout opportunity. Once again, the layout is now. From the perspective of valuation, the average market value of individual breeding stocks is at a relatively low level in history (excluding other businesses, the average value of the average market value of listed breeding enterprises is about 25008500 yuan / head), and individual stocks are preferred in terms of listing flexibility and financial status. Look at the investment of pig breeding sector with periodic thinking and expectation thinking, release risks, expect to be better, and carry out sector layout in the “most dangerous time” in the general sense.
In terms of investment suggestions, the pig cycle is a sector market, and pig stocks have a certain room for rise. As for the selection of individual stocks, first, the “small and beautiful” pig enterprises suggest paying attention to Tangrenshen Group Co.Ltd(002567) , Tecon Biology Co.Ltd(002100) , Fujian Aonong Biological Technology Group Incorporation Limited(603363) , etc; Second, the “leading” pig enterprises suggest paying attention to Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) , Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) , New Hope Liuhe Co.Ltd(000876) , etc.
