Recently, most listed pig enterprises have disclosed the monthly report on pig sales in March. The growth rate of pig enterprises in the first quarter has been differentiated. Under the current market of “selling thanks to more”, most pig enterprises still choose to sell in large quantities, and the losses of the industry in the first quarter have intensified.
The reporter learned from various interviews that for most group farms, this year is still a year of capacity release and increased sales. Pig prices remained depressed, and the capacity elimination of some retail investors and large-scale farms was as high as 60% – 70%. However, the previous expansion of production capacity of head pig enterprises offset the elimination of production capacity of retail investors to a certain extent. Combined with the current announced number of fertile sows, it is difficult to say that the pig price will reverse in 2022.
q1 big pig enterprises launch differentiation
Up to now, the sales briefings of listed pig enterprises in March have been disclosed in succession. Compared with the same period last year, the growth rate of large pig enterprises in the first quarter was differentiated.
Most of the listed pig companies continue to maintain the growth trend in the amount of Q1 listed on the list of Q1 among the most listed pig companies. According to the monthly sales report, the companies that have seen the year-on-year growth in the amount of Q1’s Q1 in the first three months of 2022 from January to march of 2022. According to the monthly sales report, the main companies that have seen the year-on-year growth in the year-on-year growth in the year-on-year growth in the amount of Q1’s listed pigs in the first quarter of the year-on-year growth in the year-on-year growth in the amount of Q1’s Q1 listings from Q1 of the most listed pigs. From January to march of 2022. According to the monthly sales report, the main companies that have seen the year-on-year growth of the year growth in the year-on-on-year growth in the january-to-2022. The main companies that are mainly: the Hongda Xingye Co.Ltd(002002) Hongda Xingye Co.Ltd(002002) Hongda Xingye Co.Ltd(002002) Hongda Xingye Co.Ltd(002002) 7171714 ා \ (0 Tecon Biology Co.Ltd(002100) .sz) 377000, Shenzhen Kingsino Technology Co.Ltd(002548) ( Shenzhen Kingsino Technology Co.Ltd(002548) .sz) 336000.
It is worth mentioning that in March, the number of Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) sales hit a record high, reaching 5.986 million in a single month, with a year-on-year increase of 79% in the first quarter, and the growth rates of Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) , New Hope Liuhe Co.Ltd(000876) and Fujian Aonong Biological Technology Group Incorporation Limited(603363) were 91.9%, 61.9% and 95.8% respectively.
Correspondingly, in the state of continuous depressed pig prices, some pig enterprises also choose to reduce production. Of which Jiangxi Zhengbang Technology Co.Ltd(002157) ( Hunan Zhenghong Science And Technology Develop Co.Ltd(000702) . SZ) listed 2426100 in the first quarter, a year-on-year decrease of 5.91%; Tianbang Technology ( Tech-Bank Food Co.Ltd(002124) . SZ) sold 1.043 million commercial pigs, a year-on-year decrease of 8.85% Tangrenshen Group Co.Ltd(002567) ( Tangrenshen Group Co.Ltd(002567) . SZ) from January to March, the cumulative pig sales volume was 383400, a year-on-year decrease of 17.19%.
According to the previously announced breeding costs of pig enterprises, the reporter of the financial Associated Press found that the top five pig enterprises lost more than 12 billion yuan in the first quarter. Mysteel Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) data monitoring shows that in March, the national average monthly loss of self breeding and autotrophy was 522.69 yuan / head, an increase of 159.66 yuan / head compared with the loss of the previous month.
Yan Meiling, pig analyst of Shanghai Ganglian E-Commerce Holdings Co.Ltd(300226) Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) business unit, told the financial Associated Press: “At present, the loss of group farms is relatively serious. At present, the cost of most group farms is more than 17 yuan / kg, while the marketing price of pigs in March is mostly about 12 yuan / kg. In addition, when the price of feed raw materials remains high, the proportion of feed cost has increased from 50.71% to 53.36% year ago. Pig enterprises are caught in the embarrassing dilemma of low pig price, high feed cost and low white bar price, which increases the loss range of farms to a certain extent.”
pig price is at the bottom
Although the number of fertile sows in China has decreased for seven consecutive months, the production capacity is not completely eliminated. According to the data released by the Bureau of statistics, the number of fertile sows in February was 42.68 million, still at a high level in recent years Northeast Securities Co.Ltd(000686) research report clearly puts forward: “it is impossible for the pig cycle to reverse this year, and the probability of reverse next year is also low.”
Recently, the reporter of the financial Associated Press learned from the live pig teleconference that many heads of breeding plants said that the current pig price is at the bottom stage, and this pig cycle will be more difficult than ever. Through the observation of feed, vaccine, veterinary medicine and nearby breeding, it is found that retail investors and some large-scale farms have indeed carried out capacity de industrialization, the de industrialization rate in some areas can even reach 60% – 70%, and the slaughter weight is also decreasing compared with the same period, However, with the large-scale development of pigs, the tolerance of large-scale breeding plants is stronger than before, and the head pig enterprises have expanded significantly, accounting for an increasing proportion of slaughter.
In fact, the expansion of the head pig enterprises offset the elimination of production capacity of retail investors and small and medium-sized farms to a certain extent. Large pig enterprises listed a large number at the bottom of the pig price to consider the return of funds and other issues.
Yan Meiling said that the first consideration of the group’s accelerated volume in March was cash flow; Secondly, during the Spring Festival in February, the marketing time of breeding enterprises is limited. The monthly marketing tasks of most pig enterprises have not been completed, and some of them have been transferred to March, resulting in a significant increase in the marketing volume in March. Moreover, March is in the traditional off-season, superimposed with covid-19 epidemic, and some large-scale farms have panic marketing; Finally, April may be the peak of pig slaughter volume. In order to avoid trampling, the sales volume of some farms was slightly ahead of schedule and exceeded the plan. Therefore, the slaughter volume of commercial pigs increased significantly in March. At present, for most group farms, this year is still a year of capacity release and increased sales.
People in the associated press said: “the price of pigs will not rise again in the first half of this year. It is expected that the price of pigs will not rise again in the first half of this year.”
