Black Monday.
On April 11, the performance of A-Shares was weak, and the three major stock indexes fell sharply one after another. Related topics such as “under a shares” and “fund fell” were posted on microblog hot search.
As of the close, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 2.61%, the Shenzhen composite index fell 3.67%, the gem index fell 4.2%, and the turnover between the two cities was 963.7 billion.
The performance of stocks in the two cities also showed a general decline, with 560 stocks rising and 4172 stocks falling.
From the perspective of industry sectors, only the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery sectors related to the demand for epidemic commodities achieved positive returns, while growth sectors such as new energy, nonferrous metals and electronics led the decline. In terms of northbound funds, the net outflow throughout the day was 5.968 billion, the Shanghai Stock connect outflow was 3.119 billion, and the Shenzhen Stock connect outflow was 2.849 billion.
On the same day, Hong Kong stocks also fell into a downturn and shock. The Hang Seng technology index fell below the 4200 point mark, falling more than 5% during the session, and closing at 418461 points, down 5.38%. The Hang Seng Index also closed down more than 3%.
On the disk, large technology stocks continued to lead the market, with Xiaomi group and meituan falling more than 6%, baidu group falling more than 5%, Tencent holdings falling more than 4% and JD group falling more than 2%. Lithium battery stocks and automobile stocks led the declines, with Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) , Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) leading the declines, with declines exceeding 10%; Catering stocks, wind power stocks, aviation stocks, semiconductor stocks, large financial stocks, pharmaceutical stocks, interior housing stocks and property management stocks also generally fell.
After hours, 25 fund companies, including Huaxia, China Europe, Boshi, China Merchants, YONGYING, Golden Eagle, Everbright Prudential, HSBC Jinxin, CITIC Prudential, ChuangJin Hexin, YONGYING, Shanghai Investment Morgan, Cinda AoYa, SDIC UBS, Qianhai Kaiyuan, Nord, Hengyue, Jinxin, Hang Seng Qianhai, Puyin AXA, TEDA Manulife and Westlife, made detailed and comprehensive comments on today’s A-share and Hong Kong stock market performance for the first time. The public offering respondents generally commented that the sharp adjustment of the market today stems from the joint action of multiple factors at home and abroad.
On the whole, the epidemic and the upside down of interest rates between China and the United States impacted A-Shares and Hong Kong shares. On the one hand, the upside down interest rate of China US 10-year Treasury bonds has increased the pressure of capital outflow and cooled China’s loose expectations; On the other hand, China’s epidemic has repeatedly aroused market concerns about the economy, and led to the obstruction of some supply chains, including new energy, and the downturn of consumption. Superimposed market sentiment has been in an unstable state, and there has been a phenomenon of centralized smashing.
Looking forward to the future, the public offering believes that the current A-share market investment will put more emphasis on certainty. In the short term, the market mentality is more cautious, and the internal and external uncertainty significantly amplifies the volatility in the market operation. In the medium and long term, the market fundamentals are expected to remain stable or have reached the time point of medium-term layout.
For Hong Kong stocks, the public offering is expected to remain weak and volatile in the Hong Kong stock market in the short term before the high yield of US bonds and the risk events have not eased significantly. However, at the current valuation level, the fund company suggests that there is no need to be too pessimistic about the long-term prospects of Hong Kong’s science and technology sector. Rigid shares in April is a small honeymoon period, with more sector rotation and trading opportunities. We should grasp the rhythm of sector valuation repair.
epidemic and the impact of China US interest rate inversion on A-Shares
For the reasons for today’s sharp decline in a shares, public offerings generally believe that the superposition of uncertain factors at home and abroad leads to market shock adjustment. For China, first, the current covid-19 epidemic situation in China is severe, impacting the relevant industrial chain; Second, the higher than expected inflation data triggered the correction of the market’s medium-term liquidity expectations. Abroad, the upside down of China US interest rate spread has cooled China’s loose expectations.
In response to today’s A-share adjustment, Great Wall Fund said that at present, the most direct and primary factor affecting the trend of A-share is at the macro level. At the same time, some macro factors are transmitted to the real economy, which has temporarily suppressed the fundamentals of some industries and companies, further exacerbated the pessimistic expectations of investors, resulting in a sharp drop in the market beyond expectations.
Huaxia Fund analysis said that the index opened low all day, the gem fell more than 4% and Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) fell more than 7%. Lithium battery, digital currency, semiconductor, real estate and other sectors fell; Agricultural stocks led gains in the afternoon, while logistics, community group buying and prefabricated vegetables bucked the trend. As of the close, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 2.61%, the Shenzhen composite index fell 3.67% and the gem index fell 4.20%. More than 4100 stocks in the two cities fell, with a full day turnover of 960 billion yuan and a net sale of 5.761 billion yuan of funds from the north.
In the view of Huaxia Fund, the sharp decline of the index reflects that some risk factors are still in the process of release. The current issues of concern to the market include the following points. First, the epidemic situation in China has been repeated and the situation is not yet clear; Second, the interest rate spread between China and the United States has been upside down for the first time since 2010, raising concerns about the risk of capital outflow; Third, the Fed’s accelerated tightening of monetary policy has disturbed risk appetite.
Specifically, in terms of liquidity expectations, Cinda Australia Asia Fund pointed out that the higher than expected inflation data triggered the correction of the market’s medium-term liquidity expectations. According to the data released by the Bureau of Statistics today, the CPI rose by 1.5% year-on-year in March and the PPI rose by 8.3% year-on-year, both exceeding market expectations. The ppi-cpi scissors gap fell back to the level from April to may last year.
With the Fed’s recent release of a stronger contraction signal, the 10-year US bond interest rate rose above 2.77% (the upside down of the yield of China US 10-year Treasury bonds increased the market’s concern about the independence of monetary policy). The inflation pressure under the influence of the repeated epidemic and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine triggered the correction of the market’s medium-term liquidity expectations. Today, the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery sector rose against the market trend, which also reflected that the market began to pay more attention to inflation.
The adjustment of the real estate chain is caused by the failure of loose expectations. After the Jinwen meeting, the market confidence in the real estate sector continued to repair. On April 6, the executive meeting of the State Council pointed out that it was necessary to make timely and flexible use of a variety of monetary policy tools to trigger a rapid rise in the market’s expectation of loose monetary policy in the near future. With the failure of easing expectations over the weekend, the real estate chain has been significantly adjusted, which is also an important reason for the decline of the weighted index.
In fact, from the disk point of view, the fundamental reason is that the heavyweight stocks fell sharply and the index fell sharply. The top 20 industries in the total market value of the two cities showed a sharp decline today. For the top 30 industries, only one industry, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, rose today. Among the top 30 industries with total market value, there are 9 industries with a decrease of more than 5% and 22 industries with a decrease of more than 2%. The top five heavyweight sectors with total market value have fallen sharply across the board.
Starting from the two aspects of epidemic situation and liquidity expectation, Boshi Fund pointed out that the current epidemic situation in China is characterized by multiple outbreaks, and the development of the epidemic situation is slightly higher than expected. Many places have temporarily upgraded epidemic prevention and control measures, which will drag down the start-up and production of enterprises, and then affect the market’s confidence in economic recovery. And the latest minutes of the meeting released by the Federal Reserve show that the follow-up interest rate increase and table contraction will continue to advance, and the pace of liquidity tightening will continue to accelerate. Superimposed on the current fragile market sentiment, A-Shares fell sharply today.
SDIC UBS fund also said that on the whole, the market decline was mainly caused by the following internal and external factors. First, since March, the epidemic has been repeated in many places across the country, which is the most widespread since the covid-19 epidemic broke out for the first time in March 20 years. The epidemic prevention and control situation in Changchun, Shanghai and other cities is still severe. With the continuous disturbance of the epidemic, the production and life of all localities have been significantly affected.
Second, the interest rate of 10-year US Treasury bonds rose to 2.78% today, and the interest rate spread of China US 10-year Treasury bonds was upside down for the first time since 2010. The panic of foreign capital outflow from China and the United States increased by RMB 5.7 billion at the close of trading, and the net interest rate difference between China and the United States increased by RMB 5.7 billion; Third, although the recent statements of the national Standing Committee and state ministries and commissions continued to release the signal of stable growth, the expected reduction of reserve requirements and interest rates did not appear, and the overall mood is still fragile.
Some fund companies believe that since this year, the recurrence of the epidemic has brought pressure and challenges to the real economy, and China’s economy is facing great downward pressure. As Everbright Prudential Fund said, PMI fell below the boom and bust line affected by the epidemic in March. Judging from the statements of the financial stability Commission and the two sessions, there is still great downward pressure on the economy.
Xie Yi, fund manager of Nord fund, also believes that today’s market downturn is relatively large, mainly due to the epidemic. The data of new cases in Shanghai, the core city of this round of epidemic, has not shown obvious signs of slowing down, and has spread to some extent in other cities. According to the current trend, the epidemic will take some time to be controlled, which will have a certain impact on China’s economic activities.
YONGYING fund also expressed similar views. Overall, the upside down of China US interest rate spread has cooled China’s loose expectations, and the Chinese epidemic has repeatedly led to the obstruction of some supply chains and the downturn of consumption.
Overseas, the main officials of the Federal Reserve released the expectation of monetary tightening, which led to the sharp rise of the real interest rate and nominal interest rate of US bonds. The rise of the 10-year US bond interest rate significantly exceeded the interest rate of China’s 10-year Treasury bonds, or indirectly affected and compressed the space for China’s monetary easing. In the early stage, the market expectation of monetary policy easing was cooled.
Recently, the epidemic situation in some provinces and cities, including Shanghai, has repeatedly affected end consumption, and the supply chain of some manufacturing industries has also encountered difficulties, which may affect the speed of order completion and product delivery time in the future, which has a negative impact on the performance expectation of some midstream high-end manufacturing industries.
In terms of market style, YONGYING Fund believes that the sectors related to steady growth move forward in the economic downturn and policy support expectations, and the growth sector is lagging behind due to the suppression of overseas liquidity risk and the structural problems of the industrial chain.
For today’s market readjustment, Qianhai open source Fund pointed out that the main reason is that, on the one hand, the Federal Reserve released further hawkish signals, and US stocks continued to adjust at night, which also inhibited China’s risk appetite, especially the high valuation technology growth sector. According to the minutes of the March interest rate meeting released by the Federal Reserve, Fed officials believe that there may be several 50 basis point interest rate increases in the next regular meeting, and may start to shrink the table as early as may, and quickly reach the upper limit of $95 billion per month in three months or a little longer.
On the other hand, since mid March, as the market’s expectation of real estate relaxation continues to rise, the real estate sector has also risen sharply. After the sharp rise, there was profit taking pressure in stages. In addition, the supply chain of some industries has been affected due to the epidemic, which makes the market expect the growth rate of these industries to slow down, leading to adjustment.
In addition to the severe and complex epidemic situation in China, which disturbs market sentiment, China Europe Fund also pointed out that the international community continues to be impacted by many events such as the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and China US relations, the risk appetite of the capital market continues to decline, investors become more cautious about the main line of medium and long-term growth, and the increased attention to short-term stable growth also reflects this. The spread of pessimism led to a sharp drop in the stock index.
Great Wall Fund also said that the conflict situation between Russia and Ukraine is unclear, and the global debt risk may increase: the evolution trend of the situation between Russia and Ukraine is still unknown. Some international financial institutions believe that with the increasing global inflation, commodity prices may continue to rise on the current basis; The conflict between Russia and Ukraine will increase the risk of debt default of some countries, and the global debt risk will be further raised. Under the influence of uncertain factors such as geographical conflict, international situation and global inflation, the risk aversion of funds has increased, which has led to the strengthening of gold assets and the overall pressure on the stock market.
In addition to the epidemic and its impact on the economy, as well as the subsequent changes in the expectation of monetary policy easing space, CITIC Prudential fund analyzed that according to historical experience, the first quarter market may have ended, which may also be one of the reasons for the market adjustment.
epidemic situation both in time and space to upgrade and attack the industrial chain
It is worth mentioning that today, the new energy vehicle sector fell 3.28%. Referring to the sharp decline of high growth sectors, Huang Biao, fund manager of Jinxin fund, said, “the further fermentation of China’s epidemic has made the market worry about short-term economic recession. The extreme pessimism in the short term has made funds continue to choose risk aversion at a low level. The average decline in the market is more than 3 points, especially in high growth sectors such as TMT and new energy vehicles, with a decline of nearly 5 points.”
JPMorgan Fund believes that the recent epidemic in China has not eased significantly. Under the relevant prevention and control requirements, some production, manufacturing and transportation links have been affected. For example, Kunshan, an important electronic technology city, is close to Shanghai. The epidemic has affected the local production capacity of electronic components, packaging and semiconductors to a certain extent. At the same time, it is difficult to predict the time when it will return to normal in the future, Driving the downward trend of electronic related sectors; Today, some new energy vehicle industry chain companies are also affected by the epidemic. Since there have been cases of temporary shutdown of new energy vehicle manufacturers due to the epidemic in the early stage, the market also has some doubts about whether their normal production has been impacted; In addition, the recent price rise of new energy vehicles has also brought some pressure on new orders in the future and affected the performance of the overall sector.
For the reasons for the adjustment of new energy vehicles, TEDA Manulife fund commented that first, the macro environmental impact of the market. The valuation of growth stocks was compressed under the expectation of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates.
Second, the rising prices of upstream raw materials worry about profitability. The rise in lithium and nickel prices has greatly increased the cost of batteries. If the battery enterprise can not successfully transmit the price increase to the host plant, the profitability of the battery plant will be greatly damaged; If the price of battery rises too much, the main engine factory can only increase the price of terminal, and the market is worried that it will affect the sales of new energy vehicles.
Cinda Australia Asia Fund believes that the epidemic has disturbed vehicle production and raised concerns about the upstream demand for new energy. Recently, the epidemic prevention and control policies have been further upgraded. Shanghai, Jilin and Guangdong, where the epidemic was more serious in the early stage, are important production bases of passenger cars in China. The repeated epidemic also has a great impact on vehicle production. On April 9, Weilai announced that the production of finished vehicles affected by the epidemic had been suspended and the delivery of vehicles would be delayed in the near future. Affected by the upgrading of epidemic prevention and control, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) was driven by the general adjustment of new energy sector.
Yan Anqi, fund manager of Nordisk fund, pointed out that the recent decline in the new energy vehicle sector is mainly related to the escalation of the epidemic in time and space.
Yan Anqi analyzed that since March, the epidemic in China has intensified and began to affect the raw material supply of individual new energy vehicles. At the same time, due to epidemic prevention measures, offline purchase and delivery also have a certain impact. By mid March, the Jilin epidemic had led to the shutdown of the local main engine plant. In late March, the local main engine factory in Shanghai also stopped production due to the epidemic. As Shanghai’s global static management has not been lifted yet, the market has made expected adjustments to the main engine manufacturers and relevant industrial chains that are greatly affected in the trading day after Qingming Festival, and the market has also responded significantly.
In terms of the scope of impact, last Saturday, the shutdown announcement of a main engine factory in a non above-mentioned region made the market react. The complex and long supply system of new energy vehicles can not allow the participants to be alone and unaffected.
“The car factory has a high degree of automation. When the raw materials are sufficient, it is possible to make up for the ‘lost’ output in the subsequent production camp, but this depends on the time of the subsequent epidemic alleviation and the local prevention and control measures. We believe that the supply and demand of the industry will rebalance after the epidemic and the market sentiment will be calmed. If the valuation level reaches a low level at that time, there may be repair.
At the same time, with reference to the subsidy measures in Shenzhen after the epidemic, we can also have certain expectations on the policy side. ” Yan Anqi said.
Hong Kong stocks disturbed by the Fed’s interest rate hike and the upside down of China US interest rate spread
U.S. stocks performed poorly last week. The hawkish remarks of the Federal Reserve, together with the situation in Russia and Ukraine and the news of the epidemic, all three major indexes of U.S. stocks recorded declines. Hong Kong stock Hang Seng index opened 0.84% lower today, and then the decline expanded. As of the close, Hang Seng Index fell 3.03% to 2120830 points, state-owned enterprise index fell 3.76% and red chip index fell 2.80%.
Hang Seng technology index fell 5%, beep dropped 13%, Kwai fell nearly 7%, millet fell over 6%, the US group fell 5.75%. Auto stocks led the decline, with Xiaopeng auto down nearly 10%, Byd Company Limited(002594) shares down more than 7% and ideal auto down more than 8%.
A director of the overseas investment department of public offering in Shenzhen believes that on the news side, the Federal Reserve recently released the minutes of the monetary policy meeting in March. The minutes of the meeting showed that the Fed could start the scale reduction as early as or in May, and the officials attending the meeting “generally agreed” that the maximum scale of the monthly scale reduction could reach US $95 billion; “Many” officials attending the meeting tend to raise interest rates by one or more 50 basis points at the remaining interest rate meeting this year.
In addition, the hawkish statements of several Fed officials further heated up the market’s expectations that the Fed may accelerate the tightening of monetary policy.
According to CME’s “fed observation”, the probability of the Fed raising interest rates by 25 basis points in May is 20.6%, the probability of raising interest rates by 50 basis points is 79.4%, and the probability of raising interest rates by 75 basis points is 0%; By June, the probability of raising interest rates by 25 basis points or 50 basis points is 0%, the probability of raising interest rates by 75 basis points is 11.5%, the probability of raising interest rates by 100 basis points is 53.4%, and the probability of raising interest rates by 125 basis points is 35.1%.
According to the analysis of Hang Seng Qianhai fund, there was a significant correction in the Hong Kong stock market today. From the perspective of the sector, growth tracks such as consumption, Internet, medicine and new energy fell significantly. Today’s decline is mainly due to the following three aspects.
First, the epidemic has repeatedly triggered market concerns about the economy. Over the weekend, there were repeated signs of the epidemic all over the country. The population flow in the areas with serious epidemic situation basically stagnated, and all localities also imposed certain restrictions on the import and export of freight, which means that the economic activities of all localities will be significantly affected, which triggered the market’s concern about China’s economic recovery and fundamentals. The risk aversion of funds rose again, and the willingness to sell equity assets to avoid risks was significantly strengthened.
Second, the upside down of interest rates on China US 10-year Treasury bonds has increased the pressure of capital outflow. In early trading, the yield of U.S. 10-year Treasury bonds rose 5.5bp to 2.764%. The yield of China’s 10-year Treasury bonds active bond 220003 was flat. The valuation of Japanese and Chinese bonds was 2.7525%. The interest rate of China US 10-year Treasury bonds was upside down for the first time since 2010. The dislocation of the economic cycle between China and the United States is the root cause of the rapid narrowing of the yield spread of 10-year Treasury bonds between the two countries. The upside down will lead to the outflow of funds from emerging markets, which will put some pressure on the economy and capital markets of emerging markets, especially the growth sector of Hong Kong stocks.
Third, the short-term bad of the new energy industry chain. Over the weekend, some automobile enterprises said that the production of finished vehicles had been suspended. As the Yangtze River Delta is an important town of the automobile industry chain, the production and operation of relevant industry chain companies have been greatly impacted in the short term due to the impact of the epidemic, and even the production and supply of some products have been suspended in stages. The short-term impact of the industrial chain supply has induced the market to have doubts about the future profit expectations of enterprises related to the industrial chain, resulting in a sharp drop in the share prices of Hong Kong stock companies related to the electric vehicle industrial chain.
HSBC Jinxin Fund said that the upside down of China US interest rate spread may affect the sentiment of Hong Kong stock investors. The minutes of the FOMC meeting of the Federal Reserve in March released last week provide further information for the reduction: the Federal Reserve plans to start the reduction from May and quickly increase the scale of the reduction to $95 billion per month. This reduction plan basically meets market expectations.
However, the statements made by several Fed officials in the same period are very hawkish, especially considering that two of them originally held the same position and were partial to doves.
In addition, considering the possible impact of the development of this round of epidemic on the global supply chain and inflation, the market’s expectations for US inflation and the tightening of Fed policy are further strengthened. Therefore, we can see that the ten-year US bond yield has risen rapidly to nearly 2.8%, and even the upside down of China US interest rates has formed, which has a significant impact on market investment sentiment.
short term index shock consolidation
in the medium term, market opportunities outweigh risks
Looking forward to the future market of a shares, the interviewed public offering believes that the index may remain volatile due to the disturbance of multiple factors in the short term; However, in the medium term, we are not pessimistic about the market. The market valuation has reflected more pessimistic expectations. The subsequent opportunities may be greater than the risks, which may be a good opportunity for medium and long-term layout.
Looking back, Qianhai open source Fund believes that the phased market is still in a window of index shock consolidation and emotional repair. First, the epidemic has exacerbated the downward pressure on the economy and increased the space and impetus for subsequent monetary and credit easing. Second, the real estate credit risk has been “removing thunder” in succession, and referring to historical experience, the real estate market will continue at least until the downward pressure on house prices is relieved. Subsequently, with the relaxation of real estate policy, there is room for further upward growth.
In addition, the decision-making level’s determination to maintain the stability of the capital market was clear, and the central bank also began to solicit opinions on the financial stability law. However, under the continuous disturbance of risk factors such as high overseas inflation, rising expectations of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike and table contraction, fluctuations in US stocks and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, it is also difficult for the market to reverse the V-shape and move upward. Therefore, the probability of the index is still a shock consolidation market.
Boshi fund also believes that the current policy has not been further relaxed, and there has been no effective admission of incremental funds in the market. Since April, northbound funds have continued the net outflow trend of last month, and overseas funds are cautious about A-Shares as a whole. At present, the market is still in the data verification period of “steady growth”. In the absence of strong data indicating that the economy is strengthening, the probability of A-Shares will continue to fluctuate, and internal and external uncertainties will still affect its trend.
Hengyue Fund believes that the main line that determines the general trend of A-Shares is still China’s economic fundamentals. Before the effect of stable growth appears, it is difficult for the market to reverse the trend, and the probability continues the process of grinding the bottom and shaking. In the next few weeks, with the gradual weakening of the disturbance of the epidemic to the economic rhythm, the expected fulfillment degree of China’s loose policies and the importance of “economic bottom” verification will increase.
In addition, according to Hengyue fund, the expectation of “poor economy and wider policy” dominates the market in the near future, and the attitude of overseas Federal Reserve and the trend of US bond interest rate still suppress the growth style. The epidemic continues to dominate China’s economy. In addition to Shanghai, Jilin, Changchun, Tangshan and other cities began to unseal orderly after the social aspect of the epidemic was cleared, driving the marginal repair of industrial production such as iron and steel. However, the repeated local epidemics in eastern and southern coastal provinces and the emergence of community transmission in Guangzhou may make China’s economy not stable at the bottom. Structurally, the certainty of infrastructure development is further highlighted.
Looking forward to the future, a number of fund companies said that although the risks still exist, they firmly hold an optimistic attitude. Golden Eagle Fund bluntly said that the rebound is not achieved overnight, and the bottom area is not pessimistic. However, the repair of the stock index is difficult to achieve overnight. We need to wait for substantial changes in important fundamentals affecting the A-share market, such as the stabilization of China’s fundamentals and the digestion of the Fed’s tightening expectations.
In addition, China’s “steady growth” remained unchanged after the disturbance of Russia Ukraine conflict and repeated epidemics. The follow-up market is gradually entering the intensive release season of quarterly reports. There is still a window period for monetary easing in April. It is expected that social finance will improve in March, which is expected to boost market sentiment in the short term.
AXA Puyin Fund believes that the market sentiment is very fragile under the background of increasing uncertainty of macro factors recently. It needs to wait for the bottom of fundamentals, the improvement of external environment and the signal of fundamental repair released by loose policy, and the market will stabilize.
Despite the pessimistic market response to the short-term external geopolitical situation, the expectation of the Fed’s interest rate hike and the Chinese epidemic, the Western profit Fund pointed out that with the adjustment of the market, the risks have been gradually released. In the future, as the epidemic situation in China is gradually controlled, China’s steady growth has entered a period of strength, the market risk appetite may stabilize and recover, and the high-quality core assets with reasonable valuation still have medium and long-term allocation value.
Looking forward to the future, China Merchants Fund believes that the current A-share market investment will put more emphasis on certainty. At present, there is no shortage of opportunities in the market: in the period of economic transformation, the short-term dependence on traditional growth sectors increases, and the tail risk of real estate and platform economy decreases; On the contrary, the dual control of supply side and energy consumption improves the return on assets of companies with physical assets and stable cash flow.
YONGYING fund concluded that the index fluctuated and consolidated in the short term, and the market opportunities outweighed the risks in the medium term. The tightening of the Federal Reserve’s currency in the second quarter may still disturb the market, and geopolitical problems may be repeated. However, the negative impact of external risks on sentiment is gradually weakening. The focus of the Chinese market will gradually switch to China’s economic fundamentals. The core depends on the slowdown of the epidemic and the progress of credit relief. The cashing of credit relief may be the core driving force for the market in the future.
Therefore, in the short term, the epidemic prevention work is advancing, and it is expected that it may be alleviated in the middle and later part of the second quarter, while the overseas risk disturbance also needs to wait for the substantial decline of US inflation from May to June. At the same time, it takes time for China to broaden its credit, that is, it takes a process from the end of the policy to the end of the market. It is necessary to see that the policy signal is transformed into real measures, during which the market may fluctuate and consolidate; In the medium term, after the full release of overseas risks and the gradual implementation of Chinese policies after the second quarter, the market may return to the upward channel.
Strategically speaking, YONGYING fund judges that it may have reached the time point of medium-term layout. Judging from the price performance index (ERP) of the stock market, the overall price performance of the current market is close to the historical bottom (2016, 2018 and 2020), or it means that there is very limited room for further decline.
In the short term, Huaxia Fund said that the market mentality is more cautious. The index is still in the process of finding the bottom. The internal and external uncertainty has significantly amplified the volatility in the market operation, but the correction of the index also makes the medium-term investment opportunities more obvious. From the perspective of trading strategy, in addition to paying attention to and preventing short-term risk factors, we should also focus on the return trend of medium and long-term fundamental value. After adjustment, the investment opportunities of some growth industries become more and more optimistic.
However, the medium and long-term fundamentals of the market are expected to remain stable. It is expected that the policy will be further overweight in the second quarter, the national standing committee will continue to deploy “stable growth”, some measures will be implemented in advance, the implementation of prudent monetary policy is expected to be further strengthened, and the economic downside risk will be effectively hedged. The upside down of interest rate difference between China and the United States is essentially determined by the upside down of inflation. RMB assets are still relatively attractive to the US dollar, which may not lead to significant fluctuations in exchange rate or substantial outflow of funds.
“Referring to 2020, we think the impact of the epidemic on the stock market may be around one quarter,” said Xie Yi, fund manager of Nord fund, and the feedback time of the stock market is basically synchronized. At present, all policies have been marginally improved. Once the epidemic is effectively controlled and the growth expectation is reshaped, the market is expected to stabilize and rise again. Compared with the US interest rate hike, we believe that what is more important is the marginal easing of China’s monetary policy, which will better hedge the pressure on capital.
“At the same time, choosing stocks with reasonable valuation and good growth can also better cope with the relatively tight environment. Therefore, looking at the medium and long term, we believe that the current A-share assets are of great investment value, and we continue to be optimistic about the follow-up market.” Xie Yi further said.
The Morgan Fund believes that looking ahead, the more hawkish policy expectation of the Federal Reserve will lead to the adjustment of the short-term market, but it will eventually stabilize after the price is fully reflected. Under the strict prevention and control of dynamic clearing, it is expected that the interference to production and transportation will be significantly improved in the near future; At the same time, after the recent epidemic has a negative impact on the economy, the relevant policies may strengthen and accelerate the pace, which will help the A-share bottom recovery.
However, at the same time, the superposition of elevated risk sentiment has changed to some extent, and the improvement of relevant factors still needs some time; In addition, under the game of stock funds, the phenomenon of rapid rotation of the industry may continue, and the market driven by events or news is relatively short, so it is not suitable to catch up. After the sharp general decline of the market today, the target of wrong killing within this week may have a slight rebound opportunity after the mood stabilizes, but the shock may still be the short-term normal. Investors should be more patient and deal with the market adjustment from a more medium and long-term perspective.
Specific to the driving factors of the market rise, CITIC Prudential fund further introduced that steady growth and inflation or phased upward forces in the market. The two core variables of the market are still: first, China’s steady growth policy and when to cash in the broad credit. The meeting of the Finance Committee once again made it clear that China’s policies are expected to continue to be positive as a whole, but it still takes time for credit relief to take effect; Second, overseas, the rhythm of the Fed’s interest rate increase and table contraction, as well as the disturbance of events such as the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. In May, the Federal Reserve may raise interest rates again and start to shrink the table. The yield curve of US bonds is upside down, and the volatility of overseas markets may still be an external risk that needs to be paid attention to.
On the whole, SDIC UBS Fund said that the market may still be repeated in the short term, but the medium-term outlook should not be overly pessimistic under the condition of “steady growth”. In the follow-up, we still need to continue to pay attention to the progress of global relations, inflation trend, epidemic prevention and control and other aspects to judge market changes.
grasp the main line of steady growth in the short term
strengthen the confidence of medium and long-term growth stocks
In terms of the allocation direction, before the effect of the steady growth policy has not been fully revealed, finance, real estate, infrastructure chain and other related sectors may still be the focus of market stage transactions. After the market sentiment stabilizes and picks up, the growth track is expected to return to the main line of the market.
Great Wall Fund said that the recent market decline is basically the product of the interaction of macro factors and pessimism. In the absence of significant improvement in macro factors, the market probability will be dominated by shock as a whole, but at the same time, we should not ignore the opportunities brought by the sustained development of stable growth policy and the outstanding fundamental performance of some listed companies. We will continue to grasp the main line of balance and pay close attention to policy developments.
Referring to the current A-share market, China Merchants Fund said that under the combination of non relaxation of economic objectives and dynamic zeroing, the market expects further enhancement of future policies. At present, the focus of the market for policy expectations lies in the follow-up “confidence recovery” areas, including areas with potential support for policy development, such as infrastructure, real estate and stable demand related industrial chains (banking, real estate, building materials, construction, etc.).
In addition, in the context of global inflation, we still choose the inflation chain in the medium term, especially the types that are highly correlated with global inflation and the supply gap cannot be made up in the short term, such as upstream resource products and food. To sum up, China Merchants Fund is optimistic about the sectors with undervalued value, performance, determined growth and marginal changes in the medium and long term.
Boshi Fund believes that in order to ensure the completion of the annual gdp5 With a growth target of about 5%, the short-term and medium-term certainty of the main line of “stable growth” is relatively higher, and we can still pay due attention to the opportunities in new and old infrastructure fields.
In the short term, the Western profit fund also believes that the stable growth and inflation chain may still be the main line of the market at this stage.
Wang Jing, chief strategist of ChuangJin Hexin fund, said that the impact of the epidemic on the economy continued, and the prosperity of consumption and manufacturing industry was inevitably under pressure, affecting the shareholding confidence of relevant sectors. However, the upside down of interest rate spread between China and the United States does not necessarily mean that China’s monetary policy space disappears. At present, the RMB exchange rate is still strong, and the pressure of capital outflow is not large. On the contrary, stable growth policies are more needed to stimulate economic stabilization and maintain the relative attraction and competitive advantage of China’s economy. Therefore, we believe that steady growth is still the market theme, and the subsequent policy overweight can still be expected.
In terms of industry configuration, Golden Eagle Fund said that in the medium and short term, stable growth can focus on the post cycle of the real estate chain, and the science and technology sector can participate in the boom track from the perspective of PEG. Under the epidemic situation and external economic pressure, it is expected that the steady growth policy will continue to work. Before the follow-up policies are implemented and effective, they can still participate in bargain hunting. In addition to real estate and banks, the main line of steady growth can focus on the post cycle varieties of the real estate chain on the left. At the same time, from bottom to top, focus on the cost-effective technology sector measured from the perspective of PEG. After experiencing the sharp impact of capital and mood, focus on the high boom sector or boom improvement direction with continuous high growth of performance and better cost performance displayed in the first quarterly report.
CITIC Prudential fund suggests that the overall balanced allocation should be maintained. We can pay attention to: there are still stable growth related to policy expectations in the short term: real estate leaders, urban commercial banks and buildings; Coal / agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery under the inflation clue, and medicine under the epidemic clue (traditional Chinese medicine / cdmo / vaccine); New infrastructure direction, including digital infrastructure (digital economy, 5g communication, big data center, Internet of things), energy infrastructure (photovoltaic, wind power, energy storage).
In terms of industry allocation, Everbright Prudential fund is still expected to be partial to value in the first half of the year. The main lines that need to be paid attention to include: relatively clear grasp of steady growth, paying attention to real estate, paying attention to the new and old infrastructure industry chain, and focusing on targets with performance and longer logic; Marginal prosperity improvement: agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, aviation airport, commerce and retail with reverse predicament; Low economic relevance: medicine, new and old infrastructure reverse cycle (TMT purchased by the government, construction), media.
The subsequent Cinda Australia Asia Fund believes that we should still believe in the country’s determination and ability to stabilize growth. There is still a window for reducing reserve requirements and interest rates in April. Focus on the following main lines: first, subversive innovation, mainly focusing on the direction of less capital investment and insensitive to monetary policy, such as intelligent automobile industry, industrial Internet and automatic office; Second, industries that can face the energy crisis and overcome the supply bottleneck, such as nuclear power, coal chemical industry, new energy materials, green power, etc; Third, industries that benefit from steady growth and have the logic of dilemma reversal, such as breeding, transportation, tourism, finance, construction, etc.
Throughout the year, AXA Puyin Fund believes that there are still opportunities for structural layout at the industrial level. The important layout opportunities of the whole year come from industries that can reflect the profitability exceeding the expected boom after the disclosure of the first quarterly report, such as military industry, photovoltaic and other sectors deserve special attention. The steady growth sector has relative defensive attributes and advantages, mainly the real estate and consumption sectors of central enterprises.
In the long run, many public offerings still maintain full confidence in the high growth track and believe that the growth track is expected to return to the main line of the market. As Huaxia Fund pointed out, in the short-term complex and changeable market environment, we also need to be more patient, especially confidence in growth stocks.
As of April 9, a total of 221 companies in a have released the performance forecast of the first quarter (the disclosure accounts for about 5%). The high boom field is mainly concentrated in the two directions of upstream cycle and high-end manufacturing. Among them, growth stocks will still be the main source of income for the whole year, while the high price can still be sustained. Cycle stocks are the direction of both reverse investment and boom investment, and growth + cycle is still the main investment line in the subsequent market rebound.
Huang Biao, fund manager of Jinxin fund, also said frankly that he has full confidence in scientific and technological growth sectors such as A-share new energy. “In contrast to the current extremely fragile performance of a shares, innovation in the field of science and technology is still advancing in great strides, and industrial innovation broke out intensively: in March and the first quarter, the revenue of international science and technology giants and several major wafer factories in Taiwan generally reached an all-time high again, and increased significantly month on month, the sales volume and penetration rate of Chinese Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles also continued to reach a new high, and the annual report and first quarter report of science and technology leaders increased significantly, which all show these achievements The long track continues to maintain a high boom. “
Huang Biao pointed out that the valuation of growth stocks has been declining for nearly four consecutive months, which may have fully or even excessively reflected the impact of the epidemic in terms of time and space: from the index point, the gem index has fallen back to the mid-2020 level, and from the valuation level, the current valuation of growth stocks has fallen to the lowest level of the epidemic in the first quarter of 2020, which shows that the market sentiment has been extremely pessimistic.
\u3000\u3000 “Therefore, we believe that the huge potential space of China’s economy and the endogenous growth logic of the science and technology track have not been destroyed. From a long-term perspective, with the gradual effect of prevention and control measures, the economy will gradually return to the right track, and the panic decline will be unsustainable. At present, the valuations of many high-quality growth stocks may have been in an oversold state, so we should not continue to blindly avoid risks and fall at a low level, but improve the high boom track and high-quality growth assets When the panic is quickly released, it will be the time to harvest the excess returns of science and technology growth stocks. ” Huang Biao said.
Hong Kong stocks will remain volatile in the short term
Looking forward to the trend of Hong Kong stocks, Hang Seng Qianhai Fund said that today’s market decline is more due to sentiment and expected pessimism, which belongs to short-term factors. We believe that Hong Kong stocks will remain volatile in the short term, and looking ahead, it is still expected to achieve a certain degree of valuation repair, although there may be fluctuations during the period.
Some key variables affecting the market trend in the future include: the progress of regulatory policies and foreign geopolitical tensions; China’s repeated epidemic and its impact on economic growth; The time to stabilize the strength of the growth policy. On the whole, we believe that the opportunities faced by the market in the medium term are still greater than the risks as a whole, and Chinese policies play a key role in improving investors’ risk appetite.
On the whole, Hang Seng Qianhai Fund believes that the technology sector is one of the unique characteristics of the Hong Kong market, and it also has a pivotal weight in the Hang Seng Index. Therefore, under the huge fluctuation of the stock price of enterprises in the technology sector in the early stage, the Hong Kong market has undergone a large adjustment at the same time. We believe that, on the whole, the valuation of growth stocks, including enterprises in the technology sector, has been attractive after adjustment, and from the perspective of regulatory risk, external uncertainties are expected to improve marginally in 2022. Considering the large development space in the future, in the medium and long term, technology companies with core competitiveness are expected to bring excess returns to investors. Therefore, we believe that at present, we can use long-term thinking to carry out a configuration in the short and medium term, and look for opportunities in the oversold sector. From the perspective of a two-year cycle, the opportunities are far greater than the risks. The current low level is also a better opportunity for the layout of Hong Kong stocks on the left.
HSBC Jinxin Fund believes that the current U.S. bond interest rate has fully responded to policy expectations, and it is unlikely to rise further, but it may still fluctuate near the high level in the short term. At present, the biggest contradiction focus in the Hong Kong stock market is still the weakening of corporate profit momentum. It is expected that the Hong Kong stock market will still be weak and volatile in the short term before the US bond yield is high and the risk events are not significantly mitigated.
central bank announces March credit and social finance data
much higher than expected
On April 11, the central bank data showed that China’s M2 increased by 9.7% year-on-year in March, with an expected 9.1%; In March, RMB loans increased by 3.13 trillion yuan, compared with the previous value of 1.23 trillion yuan; In March, the increment of social financing scale was 4.65 trillion yuan, 1.28 trillion yuan more than the same period last year.
March M2 year-on-year growth of 9.7%, expected 9.1%
I. broad money increased by 9.7% and narrow money increased by 4.7%
At the end of March, the balance of broad money (M2) was 249.77 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.7%, 0.5 and 0.3 percentage points higher than that at the end of last month and the same period of last year respectively; The balance of narrow money (M1) was 64.51 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.7%, the growth rate was the same as that at the end of last year, 2.4 percentage points lower than that of the same period of last year; The balance of money in circulation (M0) was 9.51 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.9%. The net cash invested in the first quarter was 431.7 billion yuan.
second and first quarter RMB loans increased by 8.34 trillion yuan and foreign currency loans increased by 30.5 billion US dollars
At the end of March, the balance of domestic and foreign currency loans was 207 trillion yuan, an increase of 11% year-on-year. At the end of the month, the balance of RMB loans was 201.01 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.4%, the growth rate was the same as that at the end of last month, 1.2 percentage points lower than that in the same period of last year.
In the first quarter, RMB loans increased by 8.34 trillion yuan, an increase of 663.6 billion yuan year-on-year. In terms of sub sectors, household loans increased by 1.26 trillion yuan, of which short-term loans increased by 194.3 billion yuan and medium and long-term loans increased by 1.07 trillion yuan; Loans to enterprises (Institutions) increased by 7.08 trillion yuan, of which short-term loans increased by 2.23 trillion yuan, medium and long-term loans increased by 3.95 trillion yuan, and bill financing increased by 802.7 billion yuan; Loans from non banking financial institutions decreased by 8.1 billion yuan. In March, RMB loans increased by 3.13 trillion yuan, an increase of 395.1 billion yuan year-on-year.
At the end of March, the balance of foreign currency loans was 943.2 billion US dollars, an increase of 2.9% year-on-year. Foreign currency loans increased by US $30.5 billion in the first quarter, a year-on-year decrease of US $19 billion. In March, foreign currency loans decreased by US $12.5 billion, an increase of US $14.3 billion year-on-year.
in the third and first quarter, RMB deposits increased by 10.86 trillion yuan and foreign currency deposits increased by 49.4 billion US dollars
At the end of March, the balance of domestic and foreign currency deposits was 249.74 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.9%. At the end of the month, the balance of RMB deposits was 243.1 trillion yuan, an increase of 10% year-on-year, 0.2 and 0.1 percentage points higher than that at the end of last month and the same period of last year respectively.
In the first quarter, RMB deposits increased by 10.86 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.51 trillion yuan year-on-year. Among them, household deposits increased by 7.82 trillion yuan, deposits of non-financial enterprises increased by 1.39 trillion yuan, fiscal deposits increased by 342.6 billion yuan, and deposits of non banking financial institutions increased by 574.4 billion yuan. In March, RMB deposits increased by 4.49 trillion yuan, an increase of 857.7 billion yuan year-on-year.
At the end of March, the balance of foreign currency deposits was US $1.05 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 9.4%. Foreign currency deposits increased by US $49.4 billion in the first quarter, a year-on-year decrease of US $18.1 billion. In March, foreign currency deposits decreased by $7.5 billion, an increase of $2.6 billion year-on-year.
in April and March, the monthly weighted average interest rate of interbank lending in RMB market was 2.07%, and the monthly weighted average interest rate of pledged bond repurchase was 2.08%
In the first quarter, the inter-bank RMB market traded a total of 379.99 trillion yuan in the form of inter-bank lending, cash bonds and repurchase, with an average daily turnover of 6.33 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 27.3%. Among them, the average daily transaction of interbank borrowing increased by 4.4%, the average daily transaction of cash bonds increased by 33.9%, and the average daily transaction of pledge repo increased by 29%.
The weighted average interest rate of interbank borrowing in March was 2.07%, 0.01 and 0.06 percentage points higher than that of the previous month and the same period of the previous year respectively; The weighted average interest rate of pledged repo was 2.08%, 0.02 and 0.07 percentage points higher than that of the previous month and the same period of the previous year respectively.
v. balance of national foreign exchange reserves: USD 3.19 trillion
At the end of March, the balance of China’s foreign exchange reserves was $3.19 trillion. At the end of March, the RMB exchange rate was 6.3482 yuan to the US dollar.
VI. RMB 2.07 trillion yuan in cross-border trade settlement business and RMB 1.43 trillion yuan in direct investment settlement business in the first quarter
In the first quarter, cross-border trade in goods, trade in services and other current accounts, foreign direct investment and foreign direct investment settled in RMB amounted to 1.59 trillion yuan, 0.48 trillion yuan, 0.39 trillion yuan and 1.04 trillion yuan respectively.
Note 1: the current data is preliminary.
Note 2: since 2015, RMB, foreign currency and local and foreign currency deposits include deposits from non banking financial institutions, and RMB, foreign currency and local and foreign currency loans include loans lent to non banking financial institutions.
Note 3: the loans of enterprises (Institutions) in the report refer to the loans of non-financial enterprises and government organizations.
March new RMB loans 3.13 trillion yuan, previous value 1.23 trillion yuan
On April 11, the central bank released the financial statistics report for the first quarter of 2022. At the end of March, the balance of domestic and foreign currency loans was 207 trillion yuan, an increase of 11% year-on-year. At the end of the month, the balance of RMB loans was 201.01 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.4%, the growth rate was the same as that at the end of last month, 1.2 percentage points lower than that in the same period of last year.
In the first quarter, RMB loans increased by 8.34 trillion yuan, an increase of 663.6 billion yuan year-on-year. In terms of sub sectors, household loans increased by 1.26 trillion yuan, of which short-term loans increased by 194.3 billion yuan and medium and long-term loans increased by 1.07 trillion yuan; Loans to enterprises (Institutions) increased by 7.08 trillion yuan, of which short-term loans increased by 2.23 trillion yuan, medium and long-term loans increased by 3.95 trillion yuan, and bill financing increased by 802.7 billion yuan; Loans from non banking financial institutions decreased by 8.1 billion yuan. In March, RMB loans increased by 3.13 trillion yuan, an increase of 395.1 billion yuan year-on-year.
At the end of March, the balance of foreign currency loans was 943.2 billion US dollars, an increase of 2.9% year-on-year. Foreign currency loans increased by US $30.5 billion in the first quarter, a year-on-year decrease of US $19 billion. In March, foreign currency loans decreased by US $12.5 billion, an increase of US $14.3 billion year-on-year.
China in March social financing scale increment was 4.65 trillion yuan
According to preliminary statistics, the cumulative increment of social financing scale in the first quarter of 2022 was 12.06 trillion yuan, 1.77 trillion yuan more than the same period last year. Among them, RMB loans to the real economy increased by 8.34 trillion yuan, an increase of 425.8 billion yuan year-on-year; Foreign currency loans to the real economy increased by 175 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9.5 billion yuan; Entrusted loans increased by 46 billion yuan, an increase of 51 billion yuan year-on-year; Trust loans decreased by 169 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 187.9 billion yuan; Undiscounted bank acceptance bills increased by 79.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 245.4 billion yuan; The net financing of corporate bonds was 1.31 trillion yuan, an increase of 405 billion yuan year-on-year; The net financing of government bonds was 1.58 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 923.8 billion yuan; Domestic stock financing of non-financial enterprises was 298.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 51.5 billion yuan.
In March, the scale of social financing increased by 4.65 trillion yuan, 1.28 trillion yuan more than the same period last year.
In terms of structure, in the first quarter, RMB loans to the real economy accounted for 69.1% of the social financing scale in the same period, 7.8 percentage points lower than the same period last year; Foreign currency loans to the real economy accounted for 1.5% in RMB, down 0.3 percentage points year-on-year; Entrusted loans accounted for 0.4%, a year-on-year increase of 0.4 percentage points; Trust loans accounted for – 1.4%, a year-on-year increase of 2.1 percentage points; Undiscounted bank acceptance bills accounted for 0.7%, a year-on-year decrease of 2.5 percentage points; Corporate bonds accounted for 10.9%, up 2.1 percentage points year-on-year; Government bonds accounted for 13.1%, up 6.7 percentage points year-on-year; Domestic stock financing of non-financial enterprises accounted for 2.5%, up 0.1 percentage points year-on-year.
Note 1: the increment of social financing scale refers to the amount of funds obtained by the real economy from the financial system in a certain period of time. The data comes from the people’s Bank of China, Bank Of China Limited(601988) Insurance Regulatory Commission, China Securities Regulatory Commission, central government securities depository and Clearing Co., Ltd., inter-bank market dealers association and other departments.
Note 2: from December 2019, the people’s Bank of China will further improve the statistics of social financing scale, include “national debt” and “local government general bonds” into the statistics of social financing scale, and merge them with the original “local government special bonds” into the “government bonds” index, and the index value is the custody face value of the custodian institution; From September 2019, the people’s Bank of China will improve the statistics of “corporate bonds” in the “social financing scale” and include “exchange enterprise asset-backed securities” in the index of “corporate bonds”; Since September 2018, the people’s Bank of China has included “local government special bonds” in the statistics of social financing scale; Since July 2018, the people’s Bank of China has improved the statistical method of social financing scale, and included “asset-backed securities of deposit financial institutions” and “loan write off” into the statistics of social financing scale, which are listed separately under “other financing”.
Note 3: the year-on-year data in the text are comparable.
