Express delivery: the epidemic prevention policy began to pay attention to logistics and supply guarantee. The logistics nodes should be opened as much as possible, and the supply guarantee personnel can go out as much as possible. Road freight is prohibited from one size fits all control. We expect that e-commerce consumption and express logistics will come out of the trough and gradually recover in the near future, and continue to recommend the leading enterprises of express logistics.
1) at the policy level this week, we attach great importance to logistics guarantee and supply, and actively express our position and promote logistics recovery:
① at the meeting on April 7, Premier Li Keqiang pointed out that at present, coordination should be strengthened to ensure the orderly operation of backbone networks such as transportation trunk lines and ports, promote the smooth flow of international logistics in China and maintain the stability of industrial chain and supply chain. ② From April 8 to 9, vice premier sun Chunlan investigated and pointed out in Shanghai that the blocking points and breakpoints of logistics transportation and distribution should be opened as soon as possible, while doing a good job in epidemic prevention and control, more guarantee supply enterprises and personnel should return to their posts and put into operation, so as to effectively promote the stability and smoothness of the supply chain and industrial chain. ③ On April 9, the Shanghai Municipal Commission of Commerce said that it should “ensure that the node outlets should be opened as much as possible and that the guarantee and supply personnel can go out as much as possible”. ④ Shanghai Post and express industry epidemic prevention and control leading group, Shanghai Municipal Commission of Commerce and other competent departments actively formulate rules for the opening of e-commerce pre warehouse, distribution center and express employees. We believe that after the severe test of this round of epidemic, the national and Shanghai prevention and control policies will be refined and rationalized gradually, and more attention will be paid to the importance of logistics stability. The e-commerce platform will resume operation, the logistics nodes and employees will be opened and reworked one after another, the problem of truck traffic will also be alleviated, and the overall judgment of express logistics will usher in a turning point of recovery; The improvement of policies and the security service guarantee ability of the logistics industry have also been effectively strengthened. Even if the epidemic situation repeats in the future, it will not change the development toughness.
2) Jingdong Logistics, SF, postal and other express delivery enterprises have resumed in Shanghai: on April 9, Jingdong home launched the “guaranteed fresh package”. According to the official information of Jingdong Mall, Jingdong Logistics has been approved and will gradually resume Jingdong Logistics from now on. In addition, according to the press conference on epidemic prevention and control in Shanghai, the guarantee and supply personnel such as express brother returned to their posts. On April 8, 1096 people were added to the post, and 2000 people were transferred to Shanghai from outside the city. At the same time, the Shanghai municipal government organized postal express, SF express and key guarantee supply enterprises to carry out local distribution. As of April 8, 7706 couriers have returned to the post of insurance and supply, and more than 1250 transportation vehicles have been involved in insurance and supply every day. Under the active promotion of policies, the market demand gap is still large, and the delivery of drugs by express has proved safe and controllable. We believe that the head express logistics enterprises will gradually restore transportation capacity and manpower, ensure safety and elimination, and meet the recovery of demand.
3) during the Tomb Sweeping Day holiday, the national postal express industry delivered 690 million express packages, a year-on-year increase of – 12.8%. Considering the current policy relaxation and demand inhibition, we believe that the worst situation is basically over and wait for the demand to recover: the monitoring data of the national post office shows that during the Tomb Sweeping Day holiday, the national postal express industry received 660 million packages, a decrease of 13.3% over the same period in 2021 and an increase of 24.1% over the same period in 2020; A total of 690 million parcels were delivered, a decrease of 12.8% over the same period in 2021 and an increase of 27.1% over the same period in 2020. We believe that since March, the epidemic situation has been severe and the control measures have been strict, which has put pressure on the express business volume in the short term and decreased year-on-year.
Positive changes in epidemic prevention management policies across the country and Shanghai will drive the recovery of the logistics industry; Due to the impact of the epidemic in the short term, pessimism has been fully released. We generally believe that the worst impact has passed and the inflection point of the industry will appear. For Tongda system, the single ticket profit of each company remains at a high level, the demand recovery is optimistic in the future, and the leading performance continues to improve; For SF, short-term operation adjustment is in place, superimposed with strict cost control, the company’s performance continues to improve, medium and long-term benefit effectiveness, international and other diversified business layout, with growth and high allocation value. A shares mainly recommend S.F.Holding Co.Ltd(002352) , Yto Express Group Co.Ltd(600233) , Yunda Holding Co.Ltd(002120) , and American stocks are optimistic about China Express.
Aviation: the severe epidemic has led to a continuous decline in the implementation of civil aviation flights. We should pay attention to the improvement of the supply and demand pattern of the industry after the epidemic is alleviated; Many countries have opened international routes and relaxed entry-exit policies. After the epidemic is alleviated, the international passenger transport business is expected to increase rapidly.
1) the epidemic situation is severe. During the Qingming Festival, the number of civil aviation passenger flights decreased year-on-year, and the short-term operation of each airline company is under pressure: according to the data of aviation steward, 18619 flights were carried out in the past week (04.02-04.08), with a chain comparison of – 13.6%, compared with – 81.2% in 2019 and – 80.0% in 2021; Among them, China Southern Airlines / China Eastern Airlines / Air China carried out 3789 / 2187 / 2408 flights, with a month on month ratio of – 22.5% / + 2.2% / – 2.6%, compared with – 73.3% / – 85.0% / – 74.3% in 2019 and – 75.1% / – 85.0% / – 75.0% in 2021; 519 / 351 flights were carried out in spring and autumn / Jixiang, with a month on month ratio of – 24.2% / – 31.0%, compared with – 80.2% / – 88.0% in 2019 and – 83.9% / – 89.1% in 2021. On April 4, China China actually carried out 1670 passenger flights, the lowest number of flights in China since this year. As of April 5, 176455 cases of local infection had been reported in this round of epidemic, with more than 90000 cases in Shanghai, affecting 29 provinces. We believe that: (1) the main reason for the number of flights during this holiday is that Shanghai strictly implements the epidemic prevention and closure policy. As an important aviation hub in China, the suspension of Shanghai aviation market has a strong suppressive effect on the total volume; In addition, all localities call for “cloud sacrifice and sweeping” and advocate not to go out of the market. The short-term pressure on aviation is expected. It is necessary to use xenogeneic vaccine as sequential vaccination to gradually spread out when the epidemic situation improves, and the demand may be delayed; (2) Since the outbreak, China’s aviation demand has recovered in twists and turns. China’s airline operations have hit the bottom four times, and the bottom position of demand has been relatively clear. It is optimistic that the demand recovery after the improvement of the epidemic will highlight the ticket price elasticity caused by the tightening of the supply side.
2) many countries have relaxed entry-exit restrictions, international routes have been opened one after another, and the international business volume of airlines will gradually increase: since late March, many countries have successively announced policies to relax entry restrictions and open international routes. South Korea has cancelled the plan to list Vietnam, Myanmar and Ukraine as isolated areas. All entry personnel who have completed the whole vaccination process, regardless of nationality, do not need to be isolated. Incheon Airport has restored the entry order before the epidemic, and international routes will be restored in two stages from May; The Philippines is officially open to Chinese tourists without isolation; New Zealand’s border is gradually opening up, and the requirements of entry quarantine are also being relaxed; Malaysia reopened the border from April 1 to allow those who have completed vaccination to enter the country without isolation; Thailand announced new rules on entry, and overseas tourists are no longer required to submit nucleic acid test reports within 72 hours before departure; Japan will lift the entry ban of 106 countries; Russia has resumed flights with 52 friendly countries since April 9. We believe that relaxing entry-exit restrictions and resuming international flights in many countries are conducive to the recovery of international passenger transport of airlines. With the improvement of the epidemic situation in China, the demand for transnational travel and business travel will usher in an explosive rebound.
On the demand side, it is impacted by the epidemic in the short term. With the promotion of acupuncture and specific drugs and the promotion of scientific epidemic prevention, the suppressed travel demand will gradually recover. On the supply side, the introduction of transport capacity of airlines is slow, the growth of transport capacity has been strictly controlled in the past two years, and the low growth of supply in the medium term has high certainty. In addition, with the opening of overseas border lines, international flights have gradually resumed, waiting for the improvement of China’s epidemic situation and a clear growth trend of international passenger transport demand. Focus on recommending Air China Limited(601111) (which will significantly benefit from the recovery of official travel); Low cost aviation leader Spring Airlines Co.Ltd(601021) ; China Southern Airlines Company Limited(600029) , with high proportion of Chinese lines and high performance flexibility; China Eastern Airlines with obvious location advantages; Pay attention to regional airlines China Express Airlines Co.Ltd(002928) .
Airport: affected by the epidemic in China, 6659 passenger flights were actually carried out in China during the Qingming Festival holiday, and civil aviation is expected to send 562000 passengers, a year-on-year decrease of 87%. The airport was greatly impacted by the superposition of epidemic and air crash. According to the flight steward data (04.02-04.08), the capital / Hongqiao / Baiyun / Bao’an / Pudong / Daxing China carried out 1109 / 37 / 2616 / 1574 / 34 / 1031 flights, with a month on month ratio of – 12.3% / – 92.3% / – 9.3% / + 39.0% / – 76.1% / + 2.7%, compared with – 86.2% / – 99.2% / – 61.5% / – 72.8% / – 99.3% in 2019. The short-term airport aviation business has declined due to the disturbance of the epidemic. With the promotion of vaccination and specific drugs, the passenger flow of China International Airlines is expected to gradually recover. In the long run, the airport’s aviation business is stable, while the tax-free industry has huge space. Listed airports will continue to benefit from tax-free dividends in the future, focusing on the airport leaders Shanghai International Airport Co.Ltd(600009) , Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Company Limited(600004) .
Roads and railways: the Ministry of transport has deployed and implemented the work of ensuring the smooth flow of freight logistics, emphasizing “one interruption and three continuity” to ensure the smooth flow of Logistics: under the severe situation of recent epidemic prevention and control, some regions have adopted layer by layer and one size fits all traffic control measures for freight vehicles, some expressway service areas have been shut down, and some highway epidemic prevention and testing stations have been congested, resulting in the obstruction of freight transportation and poor logistics, The supply of production and living materials in some areas has been affected, which has attracted great attention from all sectors of society. On April 7, the Ministry of transport held a meeting on the coordination mechanism of logistics support, which studied and deployed the work of ensuring the smooth transportation of freight logistics. The meeting stressed to ensure “one interruption and three continuity” (one interruption refers to resolutely blocking the virus transmission channel; “three continuity” refers to the continuous highway transportation network, the continuous green channel of emergency transportation and the continuous transportation channel of necessary mass production and living materials). We believe that with the attention of the national level, the obstruction of highway logistics will be gradually improved, and the release rhythm of transportation demand will be accelerated.
This week’s investment strategy: the logistics control policy was relaxed, and the industry ushered in the turning point of recovery. In the early stage, the pessimistic expectations of the leading enterprises have been fully released due to the impact of the epidemic and oil prices. For the access system, the single ticket profits of each company remain at a high level and are optimistic about the improvement of the leading performance; SF is under pressure during the operation adjustment period and is optimistic about the medium and long-term layout value. China’s aviation demand has been impacted by the epidemic and plane crash in the short term, but the recovery cycle of the industry has not been changed. At present, scientific epidemic prevention has released positive signals, and the supply certainty has slowed down. It is still optimistic about the reversal of supply and demand in the aviation industry for a long time, adding to the market-oriented reform of ticket prices to open up flexible space. Combination of this week: S.F.Holding Co.Ltd(002352) , Yto Express Group Co.Ltd(600233) , Yunda Holding Co.Ltd(002120) , Air China Limited(601111) , Juneyao Airlines Co.Ltd(603885) .
Risk tips:
1) the risk of macroeconomic downturn will have a great impact on the overall demand for transportation.
2) the price competition in the express industry exceeds the market expectation. At present, the price war in the express industry is generally controllable, but it does not rule out a large-scale price war, eroding the profits of listed companies.
3) risk of rising oil price and labor cost. Transportation and labor costs, as the main costs of transportation companies, may face the risk of rising oil prices and sharply rising labor costs.
