On April 11, the National Bureau of statistics will release the national consumer price index (CPI) in March. Affected by the rise of non food prices, the increase of CPI in March may expand.
the year-on-year increase of CPI in 3 may pick up
In February, the year-on-year increase of CPI was generally stable due to the joint influence of Spring Festival factors and international energy price fluctuationsP align = "center" CPI up and down trend chart. From the National Bureau of Statistics
What is the year-on-year increase of CPI in March? According to statistics, the average forecast value of 24 institutions for the year-on-year increase of CPI in March is 1.25%. If the above average forecast value is fulfilled, the year-on-year increase of CPI in March will pick up.
"Since the beginning of March, the food Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) price has decreased slightly month on month and narrowed year-on-year. The pork price has continued its downward trend, and the wholesale price has fallen to 18.2 yuan / kg in late March." Bank Of Communications Co.Ltd(601328) financial research center senior researcher Liu Xuezhi said.
China news finance reporter noted that in March, the average wholesale price of pork in the national Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) wholesale market was 18.2 yuan / kg, down 10.6% month on month and 51.4% year-on-year. However, vegetable prices rose. The average wholesale price of vegetables in March was 5.53 yuan / kg, up 2.5% month on month and 23.6% year-on-year.
In addition, "the retail fuel price was raised twice in March, and the terminal retail price of industrial consumer goods generally rose, driving the slow rise of non food prices. After calculation, the tail raising factor of CPI in March was 0.29%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points over the previous month." Liu Xuezhi pointed out that based on the above factors, the year-on-year increase of CPI in March is expected to be between 1.4% - 1.6%, with a median of 1.5%, which is significantly higher than that of last month.
what is the CPI trend in the future
According to the monitoring of the Ministry of agriculture and rural areas, in the 13th week of 2022 (from March 28 to April 3), the weekly average price of pork wholesale market was 18.18 yuan per kilogram, up 0.1% month on month and 48.4% year-on-year; The average weekly price of 28 kinds of vegetables monitored was 5.96 yuan per kilogram, up 3.1% month on month and 20.4% year-on-year; The average weekly price of the six kinds of fruits under key monitoring was 7.07 yuan per kilogram, up 4.0% month on month and 7.3% year-on-year.
Recently, China news finance reporter visited and found that vegetable prices in supermarkets are still high, the prices of peppers and beans are high, and pork prices are in deep decline.
"China's inflation level is expected to remain within a controllable range under the control of policies such as ensuring the supply and price of China's bulk commodities, but we need to pay more attention to the future inflation trend," China Minsheng Banking Corp.Ltd(600016) chief researcher Wen Bin said.
According to Wen bin, on the one hand, the pork price is still in the process of in-depth adjustment. According to the historical law, there is a possibility of reversal in the second half of this year. On the other hand, high global inflation poses an imported inflation risk to China, and the decline slope of PPI growth may slow down. It is necessary to pay attention to the impact of PPI transmission to the downstream under high conditions on CPI.
"The base factor from March to may determines the upward trend of CPI." China Merchants Securities Co.Ltd(600999) said that the rise of crude oil prices in March was about 21.5%, which was generally delayed by one to two months to China, which is expected to become the main factor affecting the trend of CPI in the future.
