The stock price of big bull stock Hubei Yihua Chemical Industry Co.Ltd(000422) in phosphorus chemical industry has increased by 117272% in the past year with the highest increase of . Although the industry’s high outlook continues this year, the company’s stock price has been corrected by nearly 30% compared with last year’s high and .
After trading on Friday, Hubei Yihua Chemical Industry Co.Ltd(000422) released the performance forecast for the first quarter. It is estimated that the net profit in the first quarter is 580 million yuan – 650 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 173% – 206% . On the same day, the 2021 annual report of the company was released, announcing that the annual operating revenue of last year was 18.544 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 34.33%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.569 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 125501% and .
It is estimated that the net profit of Hubei Yihua Chemical Industry Co.Ltd(000422) q4 is 82 million yuan, down 89.23% month on month. In this regard, the company said that the original 550000 ton ammonia alcohol plant reconstruction project needs to be relocated to a new site. At the end of 2021, the unrecoverable part of its investment will be evaluated and provision for impairment will be made. At the same time, the company will clean up its long-term assets and make provision for impairment, resulting in a significant decrease in net profit in the fourth quarter compared with the third quarter.
It is worth noting that the net profit of the company in the first quarter of this year surged 60.73 times to 69.27 times higher than expected . However, the performance of is still lower than that of the third quarter of last year (Q3 net profit of 762 million yuan in 2021).
As of today, within six months, a total of two institutions have predicted the performance of Hubei Yihua Chemical Industry Co.Ltd(000422) in 2022, of which the estimated average net profit attributable to the parent company is 2.449 billion yuan and the maximum estimated value is 2.533 billion yuan. Calculated according to the lower limit of net profit forecast of the actual forecast value of the first quarter in the announcement, the proportion of less than a quarter of the average forecast value of the institution .
According to public information, Hubei Yihua Chemical Industry Co.Ltd(000422) main business includes chemical fertilizer and chemical industry. According to the company’s main products, diammonium phosphate, urea and polyvinyl chloride account for 73.81% of the operating revenue, among which diammonium phosphate and gas head urea have the leading market competitiveness in the industry.
Western Securities Co.Ltd(002673) Yang Hui pointed out in the Research Report on March 29 that driven by high grain prices, raw material prices and downstream demand, current fertilizer prices are strong . According to the data, the current weekly average price of monoammonium phosphate in China (58% powder, East China) is 3720 yuan / ton, with a year-on-year increase of 40.9%; The weekly average price of urea market (Shandong region) was 2992 yuan / ton, with a year-on-year increase of 39.1%.
On April 7, the Ministry of industry and information technology and other six departments jointly issued the guiding opinions on promoting the high-quality development of petrochemical and chemical industry in the 14th five year plan, which clearly stated that strictly control the new capacity of oil refining, ammonium phosphate, calcium carbide, yellow phosphorus and other industries . At the same time, we will actively promote the development of efficient mining and beneficiation technology for medium and low-grade phosphate rock and efficient utilization technology of water-insoluble potassium resources.
In this regard, some people in the industry said that since April, due to limited supply, the price rise of phosphate rock has been started. After the introduction of the national policy to limit the upstream capacity of phosphorus chemical industry, large phosphorus chemical enterprises that have stopped selling phosphate rock will tighten their phosphate rock resources even more. The phosphorus chemical industry, especially the downstream phosphorus fertilizer price, is expected to rise as a whole with the rise in the price of phosphorus ore.
The price rise of ore, will bring benefits to large enterprises with phosphate rock resources . At present, Hubei Yihua Chemical Industry Co.Ltd(000422) phosphate rock reserves are 130 million tons and phosphate rock production capacity is 300000 tons / year.
However, there is a certain gap between and , compared with the phosphate rock reserves of 900 million tons and the phosphate rock production capacity of 14.5 million tons / year owned by Yunnan Yuntianhua Co.Ltd(600096) the leading stock of phosphorus chemical industry. In terms of performance, Yunnan Yuntianhua Co.Ltd(600096) recently also predicted a substantial increase in performance. The announcement predicts that the net profit in the first quarter of 2022 will be about 1.64 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 185.18%. According to the maximum estimated net profit of Hubei Yihua Chemical Industry Co.Ltd(000422) in the first quarter, is less than 40% of Yunnan Yuntianhua Co.Ltd(600096) performance .
It is worth noting that Hubei Yihua Chemical Industry Co.Ltd(000422) is gradually extending the industrial chain to the field of new energy battery materials. Last year, the company joined hands with Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , established a joint venture with its subsidiaries, built and operated iron phosphate, nickel sulfate and its front-end phosphate rock, phosphoric acid, sulfuric acid and other chemical raw materials . At the same time, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) announced that it plans to invest 32 billion yuan in the construction of Bangpu integrated battery material industrial park in Yichang City, Hubei Province.
Yang Hui predicts that by 2025, the global demand for lithium iron phosphate cathode will exceed 2 million tons, and the long-term market will still maintain a high growth rate.
Hubei Yihua Chemical Industry Co.Ltd(000422) said on the interactive platform recently that the project of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) cooperation between company has started .
However, according to the performance prediction of Sealand Securities Co.Ltd(000750) Li Yonglei and others in the Research Report on October 13, 2021, Hubei Yihua Chemical Industry Co.Ltd(000422) the annual net profit growth rate in 2022 was 8% (compared with the growth rate of 1926% in 2021 landslide ), while the annual estimated net profit growth rate in 2023 was only 4% .
