review: since November 2021, the judgment style has switched to the direction of steady growth such as financial real estate, and the real estate of state-owned enterprises has been the first direction. So far, the excess return has been significant. The weekly report on March 13, 2022 judged that "the most panic time has passed, and the market will usher in a phased repair window".
Outlook: it is still the structural market of index shock consolidation and capital stock game. Focus on the three directions of steady growth + real estate + high prosperity of the first quarter report, and pay attention to the diffusion and spillover of the real estate market
The stock market structure is still the stage of consolidation 1) the epidemic has exacerbated the downward pressure on the economy, but also increased the space and impetus for subsequent monetary and credit easing from the two sessions, to the meeting of the Finance Committee and then to the national standing committee, the decision-making level's determination to "stabilize growth" has been repeatedly confirmed. The subsequent monetary and credit policy easing is expected to accelerate the landing, providing strong support for stabilizing the macro-economic market 2) real estate credit risk has also been "de thunder" in succession 3 on March 16, six departments jointly issued a voice to strengthen the marginal relaxation expectation of real estate policy. On April 1, the extension of rongchuang bonds was approved, and the domestic debt default crisis of rongchuang was relieved 3) the decision-making level has a clear determination to maintain the stability of the capital market the meeting of the Finance Committee emphasized "maintaining the stable operation of the capital market", and the national standing committee continued to emphasize "maintaining the stability of the capital market" and required "preventing and correcting the introduction of policies that are not conducive to market expectations" to continue to stabilize market confidence 4) but on the whole, the market risk preference is still weak, and the game characteristics of capital stock are obvious in the first quarter, the new issuance scale of partial equity funds decreased by 82% year-on-year, and the funds from absolute income institutions such as insurance and private placement were also limited. At the same time, the interest rate difference between China and the United States approached upside down for the first time since July 2010, which also led to the slowdown of foreign capital inflow (see "what changes have taken place in the recent market micro liquidity?") 5) in addition, external factors such as rising inflation, the expectation of the Fed's interest rate increase and contraction, fluctuations in US stocks and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine will continue to disturb overseas therefore, in the case of probability, the index will continue to fluctuate and consolidate.
structure focuses on the three directions of steady growth + real estate + high prosperity in the first quarter report, while paying attention to the diffusion and spillover of the real estate market 1) firstly, for the real estate sector, although there are periodic fluctuations after continuous sharp rises. But in the medium term, whether from the perspective of time or space, the market may not be over according to our judgment in the report "time and space of four indicators to see the real estate market" on April 6, the real estate sector may still enjoy excess returns at least before the downward pressure on house prices is relieved and the residential prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities turn positive month on month. In terms of growth and valuation, whether as an important starting point for "stable growth" or from the perspective of preventing and resolving systemic financial risks, the follow-up real estate policies have room and power to relax, or drive the sector to rise further 2) Secondly, under the stock game environment, we should pay attention to the overall diffusion and spillover of the market from real estate to "stable growth" after the sharp rise of real estate, the allocation cost performance of "steady growth" related sectors, which are similar to the style attribute of real estate, benefit from the expected warming of policy relaxation and relatively backward growth, is prominent. At the same time, the global market is still in a mess of high volatility and low risk appetite. Building materials, construction, banking, brokerage and other sectors are both security and policy driven, and can attack and retreat 3) photovoltaic, chemical, pharmaceutical, semiconductor and other sectors whose quarterly report exceeded expectations and the boom is expected to continue: quarterly report period performance exceeded expectations will become an important support for the performance of the sector. At present, among the stocks that disclose the first quarterly report in advance and win in advance, the disclosure rate of photovoltaic, chemical, pharmaceutical and semiconductor is high, and the overall probability of the sector exceeding expectations is high.
investment strategy: focus on three directions: steady growth (building materials, construction, banks and securities companies) + real estate (state-owned enterprise real estate and trust) + high prosperity in the first quarter (photovoltaic, chemical, pharmaceutical and semiconductor). In the medium and long term, we will continue to be optimistic about the five major directions of scientific and technological innovation 1) new energy (new energy vehicles, photovoltaic, wind power, UHV, etc.), 2) new generation information and communication technology (artificial intelligence, big data, cloud computing, 5g, etc.), 3) high-end manufacturing (intelligent CNC machine tools, Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) , advanced rail transit equipment, etc.), 4) biomedicine (innovative drugs, CXO, medical devices and diagnostic equipment, etc.), 5) military industry (missile equipment, military electronic components, space station, space shuttle, etc.).
risk tips: focus on the unexpected return of global capital to the United States and the game between China and the United States.
