Current investment tips:
Our net profit forecast for the first quarter of 2022 for nearly 30 listed computer companies that are mainly tracked is as follows:
1) there are 2 companies with growth rate higher than 50%, accounting for 7%: Yusys Technologies Co.Ltd(300674) (184%), Thunder Software Technology Co.Ltd(300496) (55%).
2) there are 3 companies with a growth rate of 30% - 50%, accounting for 11%: Inspur Electronic Information Industry Co.Ltd(000977) (41%), Nsfocus Technologies Group Co.Ltd(300369) (34%), Glodon Company Limited(002410) (30%). The overall growth rate of intelligent manufacturing is higher than expected.
3) 3. There are 18 companies with 0% - 30% growth rate at 0% - 30%, accounting for 67% of 67% of the 67% of the 67% of 18 companies that have a growth rate of 0% - 30% at 0% - 30% at 0% - 30% of 0% - 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3) 18 companies with a growth rate of 0% - 30% or 30% at 0% - 18 companies that have 18 companies with a growth rate of 0-30%, accounting for 67% 67%%: Guangdong Huate Gas Co.Ltd(688268) 82 Cambricon Technologies Corporation Limited(688256) atthe same time, the (3%), Hangzhou Hikvision Digital Technology Co.Ltd(002415) (2%) Wondershare Technology Group Co.Ltd(300624) 0%)。
4) there are 2 companies with growth rate of - 30% - 0%, accounting for 7%: Arcsoft Corporation Limited(688088) (- 21%) and Beijing Shiji Information Technology Co.Ltd(002153) (- 27%).
5) there are 2 companies whose growth rate is lower than - 30%, accounting for 7%: Beijing Kingsoft Office Software Inc(688111) (- 40%) and Yonyou Network Technology Co.Ltd(600588) (- 285%).
After 2021q4-2022q1, the industry is expected to accelerate. 1) Predict the low point of 21q4-22q1. The annual salary adjustment of enterprises mostly occurs around the Spring Festival. Therefore, the salary increase range in 2022 will be "adjusted adaptively" according to the long-term strategy and the salary increase range of the previous year. It is likely that the salary increase will not be high from 2022q2. The expansion of manpower will begin in 2022q3. Combined with the large manpower expansion from 2020 to 2021, the expansion is expected to be more restrained in 2022. Overall, the two quarters with high salary pressure and slow income recognition are 21q4 and 22q1 2) The large salary increase in the computer industry in 2021 (about twice as much as usual) is related to the special environment in 2020. In 2020, the company experienced a downturn in the growth rate of external personnel, and the growth rate of computer per capita was suspended, which also led to the suspension of the growth rate of external personnel in 2020. 2021 needs to compensate for the special state in 2020, and the salary increase is twice that of the whole year, about 20% - 30%. This situation also occurred in 20082009. 3) According to the above prediction, the recent 2021 annual report has verified that the computer share price is depressed, which is also digesting this: most of the top 30 companies in the market value have lower profits than predicted. Among the performance forecasts of 301 computer companies, the forecast decline is more than the growth.
High quality portfolio: Hangzhou Hikvision Digital Technology Co.Ltd(002415) (predicted Q1 is good), Beijing Kingsoft Office Software Inc(688111) (expected acceleration after Q1 low point), Hundsun Technologies Inc(600570) , Beijing Shiji Information Technology Co.Ltd(002153) , Sangfor Technologies Inc(300454) , Yonyou Network Technology Co.Ltd(600588) , Zhejiang Dahua Technology Co.Ltd(002236) .
Recent Growth Portfolio: Glodon Company Limited(002410) (prediction Q1 is better), Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) (prediction Q1 is better), Inspur Electronic Information Industry Co.Ltd(000977) , Thunder Software Technology Co.Ltd(300496) (prediction Q1 is better), mingyuanyun (H), Kingdee International (H), Dawning Information Industry Co.Ltd(603019) , Venustech Group Inc(002439) , Arcsoft Corporation Limited(688088) (VR / AI).
Main line elasticity: Beijing Join-Cheer Software Co.Ltd(002279) , new point software, Grg Banking Equipment Co.Ltd(002152) .
Risk tip: the underlying chips in the computer industry still depend on overseas suppliers to a certain extent. If the external environment changes dramatically, it may cause supply chain risk in the short term. We assume that the "adaptive adjustment mechanism" promotes the delay of salary increase and expansion in 2022, which still needs to be tracked.
