In the face of the continuous decline of pig prices, although the market ushered in the third round of pork collection and storage on April 2 and 3, the boosting effect is limited. The share prices of major listed pig enterprises have also been difficult to maintain the trend of oscillation and rise since mid March, and began to decline collectively after the Qingming Festival.
As of the closing on April 8, according to the relevant data, the reporter of Huaxia times found that the pork sector fell by 5.13% during the week, of which New Hope Liuhe Co.Ltd(000876) fell by 8.45%, Zhengbang shares fell by 7.39%, Tech-Bank Food Co.Ltd(002124) fell by 6.76%, Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) fell by 6.46%, Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) fell by 4.88%, and Shenzhen Kingsino Technology Co.Ltd(002548) encountered the limit on April 7.
It is worth noting that a number of listed pig enterprises have successively announced the sales of pigs in March recently. Overall, the sales volume of live pigs of most listed pig enterprises showed an increasing trend month on month and year on year; While the sales revenue increased month on month, it still decreased year-on-year.
“In the first half of this year, the production and supply of live pigs are sufficient, and the characteristics of phased surplus are still obvious. It is expected that the year-on-year growth rate in the third quarter will gradually slow down. The whole industry is still in the stage of moderate loss. If you follow different breeding modes, the loss of self breeding is greater than that of purchased piglets.” Zhu zengyong, a researcher at the Beijing Institute of animal husbandry and veterinary medicine of the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, pointed out in an interview with the Huaxia times.
Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) march pig sales hit a new high
Recently, a number of listed pig enterprises have successively announced the sales of pigs in March. Overall, the sales volume of live pigs of most listed pig enterprises showed an increasing trend month on month and year on year; While the sales revenue increased month on month, it still decreased year on year.
Among them, Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) 3 month sold 5.986 million pigs (including 527000 piglets), a record high, an increase of 111.3%; The sales revenue of live pigs was 7.43 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.3%. Meanwhile, the sales volume of Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) and New Hope Liuhe Co.Ltd(000876) in March followed closely, with 1.4484 million (including pigs and fresh products) and 1.4269 million respectively, and the sales revenue was 2.106 billion yuan and 1.694 billion yuan respectively.
In addition, Shenzhen Kingsino Technology Co.Ltd(002548) , Tech-Bank Food Co.Ltd(002124) , Fujian Aonong Biological Technology Group Incorporation Limited(603363) and Hunan Zhenghong Science And Technology Develop Co.Ltd(000702) and other listed pig enterprises reported sales of less than one million pigs in March.
In terms of the average selling price of live pigs, Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) the average selling price of hairy pigs was higher, reaching 12.17 yuan / kg, a month on month decrease of 3.03% and a year-on-year decrease of 53.55%. Although the average selling price of Shenzhen Kingsino Technology Co.Ltd(002548) pigs is 12.87 yuan / kg, slightly higher than Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) , after excluding the influence of piglets and breeding pigs, the average selling price of Shenzhen Kingsino Technology Co.Ltd(002548) commercial pigs is 11.96 yuan / kg. In addition, the average sales price of the other top listed pig enterprises did not reach 12 yuan / kg.
three wheel collection and storage boost
Due to the continuous downturn of pig prices, two rounds of collection and storage have been completed in March this year. The first collection and storage was 40000 tons on March 3 and 4, with no flow auction and no income increase; On March 10, the national reserve bidding was 38000 tons. Compared with March 4, the starting price of this round of bidding was reduced by 180 yuan / ton, but the final average transaction price was 1647 yuan / ton higher and the current bid was 16000 tons.
In fact, the market soon ushered in the third round of collection and storage. The auction of 11800 tons (directly under the warehouse) was conducted on April 2 and 28200 tons (SOCIAL warehouse) on April 3. The starting price was 21610 yuan / ton, down 260 yuan / ton from March 10. There was no auction on April 2, and all transactions were completed. Although the transaction was in good condition, the transaction price of split meat decreased by 2406 yuan / ton compared with March 10.
At the same time, the national development and Reform Commission said that if the follow-up pig prices continue to operate at a low level, the state will continue to carry out the collection and storage work and promote the return of pig prices to a reasonable range as soon as possible.
For the current trend of pig price, Zhu zengyong pointed out that previously, pig price was falling for 16 consecutive weeks from the second week of December to the fourth week of March. However, with the end of the first round of collection and storage in the first week of March, the overall month on month decline of pig price has begun to narrow, and under the boost of three collection and storage, the month on month rebound of pig price appeared at the end of March.
“From the perspective of impact, I think the central and local governments are actually collecting and storing frozen pork. Such measures can give the market some confidence, so the decline of pig prices has slowed down.” Zhu zengyong also pointed out that on the other hand, the slaughter and trans provincial transportation of pigs in some main production areas were affected by covid-19 pneumonia, so the superposition of these two factors led to a rebound in pig prices in the near future.
From the perspective of the current overall supply and demand form, since the characteristics of the overall supply and demand situation are relatively abundant have not changed, the pig price may not fall excessively in panic, and will still be in a process of low shock in the short term. However, after the epidemic prevention and control situation gradually improves, if the marketing and circulation of live pigs return to normal, the pig price may fall further and further.
Zhu zengyong also pointed out that there are still uncertainties in the rebound space of pig prices in the third quarter. If the covid-19 epidemic can be expected to improve in the third quarter, it may lead to an obvious rebound in pig prices; However, if there is a similar situation as last August, the overall rebound of pig prices may still be affected.
the whole industry is still at a moderate loss
In the face of falling pig prices, the cold winter of the industry continues. Zhu zengyong believes that at present, the overall industry is still in the stage of moderate loss. According to different breeding modes, the loss of self breeding is greater than that of purchased piglets.
“At present, the breeding cost is still at a high level, so for self breeding farmers, the loss of a 120 kg fat pig is about 500 yuan to 600 yuan, while the loss of purchased piglets is about 200 yuan to 300 yuan. Because there is little difference in feed cost between the two, from the gap between the two, it is about 1.5 yuan / kg.” Zhu zengyong said.
“Soybean meal is a by-product of soybean oil extracted from soybean. About 85% of soybean meal is used for raising poultry and pigs. A variety of amino acids contained in soybean meal are suitable for the nutritional needs of poultry and pigs. Generally speaking, the rise in the price of soybean meal will push up the price of pig feed, which will make the pig industry, which was originally at the bottom of the industry cycle, even worse.” Yuan Shuai, Deputy Secretary General of the Rural Revitalization and Construction Committee of the China Cultural Management Association, told the Huaxia times.
In fact, the recent rise in the price of soybean meal has become the biggest factor in raising feed costs. In Zhu zengyong’s view, the rising price of soybean meal will have a certain impact on the feed cost, but when other proteins play a substitute role, the impact on the cost increase will be relatively limited.
