The share price of electrolyte leader in the middle reaches of lithium battery industry chain of gaoboom track Shandong Shida Shenghua Chemical Group Company Limite(603026) has increased by 146518% in two years accumulatively . However, the high-level correction is also very tragic. So far, the stock price has accumulated the highest decline of nearly 60% .
After hours today, Shandong Shida Shenghua Chemical Group Company Limite(603026) announced the announcement of pre increase of performance in the first quarter. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in the first quarter of 2022 will be 445 million yuan – 472 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 91.86% – 103.50% . On the same day, the company disclosed its annual report for 2021, and achieved a net profit of 1.178 billion yuan last year, with a year-on-year growth rate of 353.60%. According to estimates, Shandong Shida Shenghua Chemical Group Company Limite(603026) 2021 Q4 net profit 437 million yuan.
It is worth noting that the net profit in the first quarter of this year is expected to be up to 472 million yuan. After the fourth quarter of last year, once again set a new record high . However, on a quarter on quarter basis, only slightly increased by 1% – 8% .
As of today, a total of five institutions have predicted the performance of Shandong Shida Shenghua Chemical Group Company Limite(603026) in 2022 within six months, of which the estimated average net profit attributable to the parent company is 1.521 billion yuan. Judging from the highest value of the actual first quarter forecast released after hours, it accounts for about 30% of the average value of the institutional forecast.
For the reasons for the performance growth, Shandong Shida Shenghua Chemical Group Company Limite(603026) said in the announcement that it benefited from the company’s new energy related products to maintain full production Shandong Shida Shenghua Chemical Group Company Limite(603026) (Quanzhou) phase I project vinyl carbonate plant was put into operation successfully, and vinyl carbonate products were sold in batches in the first quarter; The continuous technical transformation of the production unit has further reduced the production cost.
Public information shows that carbonate solvent is one of the three main materials of lithium-ion battery electrolyte Shandong Shida Shenghua Chemical Group Company Limite(603026) as a lithium battery solvent supplier, its main products include carbonate series, lithium hexafluorophosphate and additive products. Among them, the revenue of dimethyl carbonate series accounts for more than 50% . At present, Shandong Shida Shenghua Chemical Group Company Limite(603026) is the largest manufacturer of carbonate series products in China, and the export volume of carbonate solvent accounts for 70% of China’s export volume of carbonate solvent , has a global market share of 40% .
Orient Securities Company Limited(600958) Lu Rixin said in the Research Report on January 10 that at present, the price of battery grade solvent remains basically stable, and the market price of dimethyl carbonate remains about 13000 yuan. Thanks to the growth of high nickel demand and relatively limited supply, the solvent profit is still considerable. In 2022, with the new production capacity of hexafluoride and additives in the industry, it will take the lead in putting into operation, while the release of solvent capacity is limited, which may become a relatively short board in the electrolyte industry chain.
In addition, Shandong Shida Shenghua Chemical Group Company Limite(603026) at the same time, silicon carbon negative electrode and wet electronic chemicals are being gradually laid out to create the second growth curve. Previously, the company said at e-interactive that the 1000 T / a silicon-based negative electrode material production line will be put into trial production in 2021 , and samples have been sent to downstream battery manufacturers for evaluation. At the same time, the 20000 t silicon-based negative electrode project .
With regard to the field of silicon-based negative electrode, China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) Research Report Analysis said that with Tesla, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) and other enterprises have successively started mass production of power battery products using silicon carbon negative electrode, 2022 is expected to be the first year of silicon carbon negative electrode industrialization , and it is expected that the penetration rate of 2025 is expected to reach 50%, corresponding to the demand of about 70000 tons of silicon carbon negative electrode .
From the perspective of product price, according to the statistics of Gaogong lithium battery, the current price of silicon carbon cathode material is more than 120000 yuan / ton, which is much higher than that of graphite cathode material, and the cost performance advantage is not obvious. However, according to the feasibility study report of the 20000 t / a silicon-based anode project published by Shandong Shida Shenghua Chemical Group Company Limite(603026) government, the sales price of the finished silicon-based anode is expected to be 73000 yuan / ton, which has a small gap with the price of high-end graphite anode materials sold in the current market (about 70000 yuan / ton) .
Cao xute of Shengang Securities pointed out in the Research Report on March 28 that in the future, the company’s 100000 t / a methyl ethyl carbonate unit project, 20000 t / a silicon-based negative electrode and 11000 T / a additive projects are expected to be put into operation in December 2023, with further expansion of production capacity.
However, it should be noted that the demand for upstream raw materials and downstream new energy vehicles have a great impact on the company’s performance. Orient Securities Company Limited(600958) Lu Rixin and others pointed out the relevant risks in the Research Report on January 10. According to the price trend of solvents since last year, dimethyl carbonate (DMC) which is still the company’s main product has relatively large fluctuations .
According to Cao xute’s profit forecast and valuation calculation, the year-on-year growth rate of net profit attributable to the parent company in 2022 is expected to be 25.99% (compared with the estimated growth rate of 364.93% in 2021 now the cliff decline ), and the year-on-year growth rate of net profit attributable to the parent company in 2023 is expected to be 18.73%.
