Key investment points
Recent market conditions
Issuance achievement rate: 1.5% According to the rating, the issuance success rates of AAA, AA +, AA and AA certificates of deposit in the first week of April were 93%, 53%, 87% and 88% respectively, and the achievement rates of AAA, AA +, AA and AA certificates of deposit increased. 2. According to banks, the achievement rates of deposit certificates issued by joint-stock banks, urban commercial banks and rural commercial banks were 99%, 71% and 93% respectively, and the achievement rates of joint-stock banks, urban commercial banks and rural commercial banks increased.
Credit spread: 1 According to the rating, the credit spreads of AAA -, AA +, AA -, AA -, a +, a – and A-grade inter-bank certificates of deposit in the first week of April and March were 1.09bps, 6bps, 13bps, 22bps, 55bps, 88bps and 121bps respectively 2. According to the banks, the credit spreads of certificates of deposit issued by urban commercial banks and rural commercial banks are 27bps and 22bps respectively.
Overview of issuing market
Interest rates of interbank certificates of deposit for each term: the interest rates of interbank certificates of deposit for each term in the first week of April are:
2.33% in one month, 2.42% in three months and 2.65% in six months. Compared with last week, the issuing interest rate of 1-month and 3-month certificates of deposit decreased by – 5bps and – 4bps respectively, and the issuing interest rate of 6-month certificates of deposit increased by + 5bps.
Number of issues: in the first week of April, 538 interbank certificates of deposit were issued, raising 327.2 billion yuan, and the issuance scale increased compared with last week. As of April 8, there were 16632 inter-bank certificates of deposit in stock, totaling 143913 billion yuan.
Term structure of issuance: compared with the previous week, in the first week of April, the proportion of 3-month, 6-month and 1-year interbank certificates of deposit decreased, and the proportion of 1-month and 9-month interbank certificates of deposit increased.
Main structure of issuance: compared with the previous week, among the commercial banks issuing interbank certificates of deposit in the first week of April, the proportion of urban commercial banks and rural commercial banks increased, while the proportion of state-owned commercial banks and joint-stock banks decreased. Urban commercial banks, joint-stock banks, state-owned commercial banks and rural commercial banks accounted for 49.7%, 17.7%, 15.3% and 13.6% respectively.
Issuing bank: in the first week of April, Bank Of Nanjing Co.Ltd(601009) issued interbank certificates of deposit of 13 billion yuan, ranking first, and Bank Of Communications Co.Ltd(601328) issued 11.5 billion yuan, ranking second.
Overview of holders of interbank certificates of deposit
Holder structure: by the end of February 2022, the total amount of certificates of deposit entrusted in Shanghai clearing house was 145133 billion yuan, an increase over the previous month. Among them, the broad fund held 8222.5 billion yuan, accounting for 56.7%, an increase over the previous month; Commercial banks held 5143.6 billion yuan, accounting for 35.4%, down from the previous month; Non bank institutions and others held 1147.2 billion yuan, accounting for 7.9%, down from the previous month.
Overview of Bank Holdings: by the end of February 2022, rural commercial banks had held certificates of deposit of 2295.7 billion yuan, accounting for 44.6%, an increase over the previous month; State owned commercial banks held 1087.7 billion yuan of certificates of deposit, accounting for 21.1%, an increase over the previous month; City commercial banks held 511 billion yuan of certificates of deposit, accounting for 9.9%, an increase over the previous month; Policy banks held 487.6 billion yuan of certificates of deposit, accounting for 9.5%, down from the previous month; Stock banks held 162.6 billion yuan of certificates of deposit, accounting for 3.2%, down from the previous month.
Risk warning: unexpected changes in regulatory policies and unexpected exposure of credit risks.
