Current investment tips:
Q1 cosmetics welcomed the first round of promotion. Under the epidemic, the passenger flow of medical and American terminals was limited, which was in line with expectations as a whole. We are optimistic about the long-term growth space of the cosmetics industry with strong demand and the medical and beauty industry with high growth rate and low penetration rate. 1) Cosmetics welcomed the first round of promotion throughout the year and maintained a high online boom. From January to February of the year, the cumulative social retail sales of cosmetics above the quota increased by 7% year-on-year, which was 2.1pct lower than the zero growth rate of the society. It was mainly affected by the high base in the same period of last year and the off-season from January to February. According to Taobao data, from January to February, the skin care products on tmall platform increased by 10% year-on-year, and the makeup fell by 11% year-on-year. The platform is maintaining a high growth rate. According to tiktok data, the beauty and skin care / Makeup market in the 1-2 months increased by 147%/181% compared to the same period last year. Overall, online platforms continued to grow at a high rate, and the online rate continued to improve. 3.8 as the first major promotion node of the year, many companies performed well and the industry demand remained high. 2) Under the epidemic situation, the passenger flow of medical and American terminals is limited, and the supervision guides the healthy development of the industry. In January, medical and American terminal consumption ushered in the peak season. From February to March, affected by the Spring Festival holiday and the epidemic, the terminal passenger flow was limited. Under strong supervision, the negative public opinion has been reduced, and the standardization of the industry has maintained healthy development, which helps to further improve the concentration of leading companies.
Yimei: the epidemic suppressed the level of passenger flow, and the enthusiasm of terminal consumption remained unchanged, which was in line with expectations as a whole. 1) Imeik Technology Development Co.Ltd(300896) : the company's 22q1 revenue is expected to increase by 62% year-on-year, and the net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase by 64% year-on-year. The large single product hi body series maintains a high growth rate. The authorized doctor of the new product "moistening Angel needle" exceeds expectations, and the terminal feedback is positive. It is expected to continue to increase in volume in the future and take over as the second growth pole. 2) Bloomage Biotechnology Corporation Limited(688363) : the company's 22q1 revenue is expected to increase by 58% year-on-year, and the net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase by 35% year-on-year. "Raw material + medical terminal + functional skin care product terminal + functional food terminal" is jointly driven by the four carriages. Among them, the medical beauty strategy is upgraded, the growth rate of raw material business is restored, and the skin care product business continues to maintain strong growth. 3) Lancy Co.Ltd(002612) : it is estimated that the medical and American business of 22q1 company is affected by a certain epidemic, such as the terminal passenger flow in Xi'an, Shenzhen and other cities is limited, and the exhibition site plan is delayed. Women's wear business is expected to remain stable and maintain rapid growth online.
Cosmetics: the demand of the industry is strong, and the leading enterprises maintain rapid growth. 1) Yunnan Botanee Bio-Technology Group Co.Ltd(300957) : the company's 22q1 revenue is expected to increase by 43% year-on-year, and the net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase by 45% year-on-year. From January to February, the company's e-commerce sales and 3.8 promotion performance continued to be strong, the main brand Winona has a stable large single product and a rich reserve of new products. Other brands, Winona baby, have made steady progress. It is expected that the company will launch the high-end anti-aging brand "aoxmed" in the first half of 22 years, focusing on the high-end cinema, which is expected to further open the growth space of the company.
2) Proya Cosmetics Co.Ltd(603605) : the company predicts that the revenue of 22q1 will increase by 30% - 40% year-on-year, and the net profit attributable to the parent company will increase by 35% - 45% year-on-year.
The company's large single product strategy has been effective, and the main brand has been successfully upgraded. Tiktok is brilliant, and tiktok is still in the forefront of sales. Caitang, a cosmetics brand, has beautiful sales, and many star single products appear. It is expected to continue to make efforts in the future. 3 Shanghai Jahwa United Co.Ltd(600315) ：
The company's 22q1 revenue is expected to be flat year-on-year, and the net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase by 5% year-on-year. The company has a comprehensive brand matrix, continues to focus on the optimization of category structure, improves sales through all channels, and continues to show the results of management reform. 4) Guangdong Marubi Biotechnology Co.Ltd(603983) : the company's 22q1 revenue is expected to increase by 10% year-on-year, and the net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase by 10% year-on-year. The company has actively transformed, strengthened the construction of brand and middle platform, continuously improved the brand layout and product structure, and focused on double collagen series products for 22 years. 5) Syoung Group Co.Ltd(300740) : the company's 22q1 revenue is expected to increase by 25% year-on-year, and the net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase by 20% year-on-year. The company's own brand and agency business developed in two rounds, and all businesses showed a steady growth trend. 6) Fujian Green Pine Co.Ltd(300132) : the company's 22q1 revenue is expected to decline by 10% year-on-year, and the net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to decline by 50% year-on-year. Mainly affected by the higher base of Q1 last year and the rise in raw material prices. 7) Jahen Household Products Co.Ltd(300955) : it is estimated that the company's 22q1 revenue and net profit attributable to the parent company are flat year-on-year, mainly because Q1 itself is an off-season of the industry. The company's daily chemical product OEM / ODM and plastic packaging business develop together, and the production capacity will be gradually released in the future, with strong growth.
Industry view and investment analysis opinion: the cosmetics and medical beauty industry maintains a high boom, and the leading performance is expected to maintain a high increase. At present, the company's valuation is lower than that of overseas companies, so grasp the opportunity of leading low-level layout. In the short term, cosmetics companies have high online penetration and are less affected by the epidemic. The excellent operating data of leading companies from January to February, combined with the 3.8 big promotion of sales, has laid a good foundation for their Q1 performance. Although Yimei is affected by the epidemic, it has laid a good foundation in the early stage of Q1 and is expected to maintain a high increase in Q1. At present, the average PE of China's major cosmetics medical beauty companies in 22 years is 56 times, which is 36 times higher than that of overseas companies, but Chinese cosmetics medical beauty companies are more growth. Therefore, from the perspective of PEG, the average peg of Chinese companies in 22 years is 1.7 times, which is 2.6 times lower than that of overseas companies. It is suggested to grasp the opportunity of leading low-level layout. Recommended: Imeik Technology Development Co.Ltd(300896) , Yunnan Botanee Bio-Technology Group Co.Ltd(300957) , Proya Cosmetics Co.Ltd(603605) , Bloomage Biotechnology Corporation Limited(688363) ; It is recommended to pay attention to:
\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 315 Lancy Co.Ltd(002612) Jahen Household Products Co.Ltd(300955) 。
Increase the risk of uncertain factors; Income growth slowed down and residents' willingness to consume was not strong.
