On April 8, the national development and Reform Commission reported that it planned to carry out the collection and storage of the fourth batch of central frozen pork reserves during the year.
According to the sales data released by the listed pig enterprises in March recently, Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) , Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) and Shenzhen Kingsino Technology Co.Ltd(002548) and other pig breeding enterprises saw a sharp increase in the number of pigs sold in March; Pig prices are still bottoming out. From the perspective of the whole industry, the specific price of pig grain also continued to be in the level-1 early warning range of excessive decline.
On the A-share market, the concept stocks of pig industry fell continuously this week. As of the closing on April 8, the shares of New Hope Liuhe Co.Ltd(000876) , Tech-Bank Food Co.Ltd(002124) , Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) , Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) closed down 2.97%, 2.93%, 1.64% and 0.74% respectively; The cumulative decline in the whole week was 8.46%, 6.76%, 4.88% and 6.46% respectively.
Industry insiders said that the continuous collection and storage of frozen pork by the state is promoting the return of pig prices to a reasonable range as soon as possible. It is expected that with the support of policies, the downward space of pig prices will gradually narrow.
pig production capacity is less than expected, the fourth round of collection and storage in year
Recently, the price ratio of pig to grain has continued to be lower than 5:1. The development and Reform Commission and relevant parties will carry out the collection and storage of the fourth batch of central frozen pork reserves during the year, and it is planned to collect and store another 40000 tons of frozen pork in the near future. If the follow-up pig prices continue to operate at a low level, the state will continue to carry out the collection and storage work, guide local governments to pay close attention to the collection and storage, and promote the return of pig prices to a reasonable range as soon as possible.
From April 2 to 3, a total of 40000 tons of central frozen pork in the third batch of this year have been sold, but the effect of boosting pig prices is relatively limited. In early March, the state carried out two batches of purchase and storage of 40000 tons and 38000 tons respectively. Industry insiders believe that although the number of policy collection and storage is limited, it plays a certain role in stabilizing the market mentality. On the whole, the current demand is weak, and the pig price is still in the bottom shock stage.
Wei Xin, senior analyst of live pigs in China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) futures, said that the continuous collection and storage of frozen pork by the state has an obvious indicator effect on the market and boosted market confidence. However, due to the small scale of the amount of frozen meat collected and stored relative to the amount of pigs sold, the role of supply diversion is limited. The opening of the fourth round of collection and storage work within the year also shows that the loss time of this round of pig production has reached a certain length, which will inevitably lead to a certain degree of capacity decentralization.
under the background of multiple rounds of collection and storage, the current market capacity removal speed is still slower than expected
According to the latest data of five ministries and commissions, as of, the number of fertile sows in China was 42.682 million. Although it was 6.5% lower than that in June 2021, it was only 0.51% lower than that in June 2021, which was still higher than 4% of the normal population of 41 million.
Recently, a number of listed pig enterprises disclosed the pig sales data in March, in which the sales volume increased significantly month on month and year on year, the sales revenue increased month on month and still decreased year on year, and the average selling price of pigs decreased year on year.
Specifically, Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) 3 month sold 5.986 million pigs (including 527000 piglets), a record high, an increase of 111.3%; The sales revenue of live pigs was 7.43 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.3%; The average selling price of commercial pigs was 11.67 yuan / kg, down 5.74% from January to February 2022.
Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) 3 sold 1448400 pigs (including hairy pigs and fresh products), up 35.49% month on month and 143.63% year on year; The sales revenue was 2.106 billion yuan, an increase of 33.71% month on month and 14.33% year on year; The average selling price of hairy pigs was 12.17 yuan / kg, down 3.03% month on month and 53.55% year-on-year.
in Shenzhen Kingsino Technology Co.Ltd(002548) 3 months, the sales volume of live pigs totaled 197700, with a month on month increase of 192.77% and a year-on-year increase of 171.44%; The total sales revenue was 220 million yuan, an increase of 156.53% month on month and 9.94% year on year; The average selling price of live pigs was 12.87 yuan / kg (excluding the influence of piglets and breeding pigs, the average price of commercial pigs was 11.96 yuan / kg), a month on month decrease of 3.92% and a year-on-year decrease of 75.92%.
Fujian Aonong Biological Technology Group Incorporation Limited(603363) 3 in March, the sales volume of live pigs was 360600, with a month on month increase of 18.10% and a year-on-year increase of 59.10%; At the end of March, the company had 1.8922 million pigs, a year-on-year increase of 47.88%.
New Hope Liuhe Co.Ltd(000876) 2022 March sales of 1426900 pigs, an increase of 46.00%, an increase of 67.10%; The revenue was 1.694 billion yuan, an increase of 53.58% month on month and a year-on-year decrease of 22.33%; The average selling price of commercial pigs was 11.64 yuan / kg, an increase of 2.19% month on month and a year-on-year decrease of 50.47%.
Tech-Bank Food Co.Ltd(002124) 3 sold 336200 commercial pigs, up 17.20% month on month; The sales revenue was about 494 million yuan, an increase of 37.99% month on month; The average sales price was 11.49 yuan / kg (the average price of commercial fat pigs was 11.99 yuan / kg), an increase of 1.08% month on month. From January to March this year, 1.043 million commercial pigs were sold, a year-on-year decrease of 8.85%; The sales revenue was about 1.411 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 53.57%; The average sales price was 12.12 yuan / kg, a year-on-year decrease of 60.09%.
Zhang Xiaojun, a pig analyst at Green Dahua futures, believes that although the number of fertile sows in China has been decreasing since last year, it also corresponds to the improvement of quality and production efficiency, which offset some of the reduction. On the whole, it can not really reduce the production capacity.
deep loss in aquaculture industry
Pig prices are depressed, and the pig breeding industry continues to suffer losses.
The profit of pig self breeding and self breeding has been lower than – 500 yuan / head for four consecutive weeks. The shrinking breeding profit has gradually slowed down the pace of capacity expansion of pig enterprises. “At present, the capacity expansion of pig enterprises basically stagnated. Most leading enterprises stopped most of the projects under construction in the fourth quarter of last year and chose to save cash flow to cope with the cold winter of breeding.” Zhang Xiaojun said.
Different breeding enterprises have different capital pressures. Qin duogui, an Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) analyst of Guoxin futures, said that the development situation faced by large, medium and small-sized breeding enterprises is different. Large enterprises have relatively more financing channels. Under the background of the bleak industry, they have a relatively strong ability to expand the scale against the cycle, and small-sized breeding enterprises are relatively not so optimistic.
In Qin duogui’s view, since 2021, the price of pigs in China has fallen sharply, and the accumulated loss of pig breeding industry has been nearly 9 months, and the loss range has also exceeded the previous rounds. From the perspective of the loss range and duration of the industry, it is expected that the price of pigs will hit the bottom in the second quarter of this year, and the profit of pig breeding industry is expected to return to the profit range in the second half of this year.
Zhang Xiaojun believes that it is expected that the pig price will remain low in the second quarter of this year, and the pig price will return to the fluctuation of breeding cost online and offline in the third quarter. In the fourth quarter, the pig price is expected to rise to the breeding cost line, and there is a slight profit. The range is. According to the breeding cost of 16 yuan ~ 17 yuan / kg, it is an ideal level to achieve profit and loss balance in the whole year.
Wei Xin said that with policy support, the downward space of pig prices will gradually narrow over time. Although there is no significant real impact on the supply and demand pattern of pigs in the market, the continuous support of policies combined with the expected easing of the supply and demand situation, and the spot price of pigs still has the opportunity to hit the bottom and rebound in the second quarter. However, the upward process and height of prices mainly need to pay attention to the marketing rhythm of pig breeding enterprises.
