Today (April 8), concept stocks in infrastructure related sectors set off a wave of trading limit, and cement, construction, water conservancy and other sectors rose collectively. Real estate stocks that fell sharply yesterday also rose and strengthened this afternoon. Several popular stocks closed the trading limit, of which Cccg Real Estate Corporation Limited(000736) recorded 9 boards in 11 days, China Wuyi Co.Ltd(000797) promoted to 6 consecutive boards, and Langold Real Estate Co.Ltd(002305) won 5 boards in 6 days.
Note: today’s real estate stocks staged a trading tide (as of the closing on April 8)
steady growth is still active, and the excess real estate market is facing a test
Recently, infrastructure and real estate related sectors continued to be active, among which the cement building materials sector gained the most. As of today (April 8), the sector index has increased by nearly 9% this month, and the sector indexes of real estate development, engineering construction and underground pipe network have also increased by 4%, 3.7% and 3% respectively. In terms of individual stocks, the monthly increase of the main line share capital with steady growth is also in the forefront of the two cities. Among them, Shenzhen New Nanshan Holding (Group) Co.Ltd(002314) , China Wuyi Co.Ltd(000797) , Xinjiang Guotong Pipeline Co.Ltd(002205) , Hainan Ruize New Building Material Co.Ltd(002596) since this month, the increase has exceeded 40%.
Note: the two cities have ranked among the top gainers since this month (as of April 8)
Guosen Securities Co.Ltd(002736) pointed out that since the first quarter, the repeated outbreaks in many places in China and the outbreak of conflicts between Russia and Ukraine have brought more uncertain factors to the market. The central bank and the national development and Reform Commission have continuously issued relevant measures to accelerate “steady growth”. At present, the downstream demand of the industry is still in the stage of gradual recovery, but the latest data show that the overall recovery rhythm is slow, which will strengthen the game expectation of “the worse the demand, the more the policy needs to be further overweight”. Therefore, “steady growth” related industrial chain targets are still the focus of recent investment
Yesterday, the rising trend of the real estate sector for many days was suspended, and many popular stocks of the real estate sector fell sharply. As this round of rising trend of the real estate sector has lasted for nearly half a month, the market also had differences on the sustainability of the real estate sector. Anxin Securities believes that this round of excess real estate market is mainly caused by marginal policy relaxation in the short term, the excess real estate market may continue until the market transaction expectation gradually rises to the predetermined economic goal, that is, to complete the mission of “steady growth” in this round . It should be reminded that the steady growth effect brought about by this round of marginal relaxation of real estate needs to pass the multiple tests of epidemic situation, financing of real estate enterprises and residents’ leverage ratio , which is doomed to increase the volatility of this round of excess real estate market
focus on steady growth and marginal improvement
Since April, in addition to the real estate and infrastructure sectors, the fertilizer and post epidemic repair concept sectors have also led the rise, while the track stocks have continued to weaken, and the pharmaceutical, semiconductor and new energy sectors have led the decline Everbright Securities Company Limited(601788) believes that the market may have a relatively positive performance in April. On the one hand, quarterly results are still the supporting factor of the market, on the other hand, policies and other factors will also promote the repair of risk appetite. However, after the first quarterly report, the market may face some downward pressure. Under the downward pressure of profits, it is difficult for the market to have a positive performance, and the inflection point may not appear until the bottom of the economy.
For the future direction, a number of securities companies have also given configuration suggestions. Anxin Securities pointed out that at the structural level, in the bottom grinding stage from “policy bottom to market bottom”, the market is facing the repression of economic downturn and policy uncertainty, and the performance of undervalued, value oriented and counter cyclical industries (such as infrastructure and real estate) and weak cyclical industries is better than that of growth oriented industries. However, after the bottom grinding stage, the risk appetite picks up, the market will return to the growth style, and the high-risk preference sector is expected to perform better. Corresponding to the current four main lines: steady growth, high prosperity, post epidemic repair and global inflation. The recommended configuration is still steady growth high prosperity post epidemic repair global inflation .
Northeast Securities Co.Ltd(000686) believes that the current direction of steady growth and marginal improvement of prosperity is the main line of post epidemic repair. In terms of specific industry direction, first, in terms of economic improvement, the steady growth policy was further introduced and implemented, and the profit improvement expectations of real estate, building materials and other industries were improved; The increase of online demand under the epidemic situation and the increase of digital governance demand caused by scientific epidemic prevention after the epidemic have improved the profit expectation of media and computer industries, and the profit of post epidemic mass consumption industries is expected to improve. Secondly, the growth industries such as medicine, new energy, semiconductor, military and so on are oversold in the early stage, but the prosperity expectation is still high.
