On April 7, Dongrui Food Group Co.Ltd(001201) announced that in March, the average selling price of commercial pigs of the company was 17.33 yuan / kg, down 12.48% month on month, 49100 pigs were sold, and the sales revenue was 77 million yuan, up 38.13% month on month. Up to now, a number of pig breeding enterprises, including Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) , Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) , have disclosed the sales data in March. Data show that the number of pigs sold by the above-mentioned breeding enterprises increased significantly in March, and the decline in pig prices gradually narrowed month on month.
Zhu zengyong, a researcher at Beijing Institute of animal husbandry and veterinary medicine, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, believes that at present, the production and supply of pigs in China are sufficient, but the demand shrinks and the phased surplus is more obvious. It is expected that after June this year, the oversupply of commercial pigs is expected to ease, the supply and demand of pork will turn to a basic balance, and the price of pigs will rise seasonally.
pig price decline narrowed month on month
In the first quarter of this year, pig prices still showed a downward trend, but they have slowed down significantly in March.
According to the announcement, the average selling price of Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) pigs in March was 12.17 yuan / kg, down 3.03% month on month and 53.55% year-on-year. In contrast, in January and February, the average selling price of the company's pigs decreased by 13.08% and 10.93% month on month respectively; In March, the company sold 1448400 pigs (including hairy pigs and fresh products), a year-on-year increase of 143.63%; The revenue was 2.106 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.33%.
Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) said that in March, the average selling price of the company's pigs fell year-on-year, mainly due to the changes in China's pig market; The sales volume and income of pigs increased month on month, mainly due to the fewer sales days in February and the less slaughter of pigs; The sales volume of pigs increased year-on-year, mainly due to the increase of seedling investment and production performance of the company.
Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) said that in March, the company's commodity pig price showed a downward trend of shock. In March, the average selling price of the company's commercial pigs was 11.67 yuan / kg, down 5.74% from January to February; The company sold 5.986 million pigs (including 527000 piglets), with a sales revenue of 7.432 billion yuan.
Xu Xueping, pig analyst of Shanghai Ganglian E-Commerce Holdings Co.Ltd(300226) Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) business unit, said in an interview with the Securities Daily, "in the first quarter, the overall supply of pigs still exceeded demand. Especially after the Spring Festival, the demand entered the off-season, and the contradiction between supply and demand increased; the pig price fell rapidly in February, but the decline of pig price slowed down in March with the start of policies, the strengthening of health prevention and control, the warehousing of some frozen products and other factors."
He further analyzed that in early March, the state carried out two batches of collection and storage of 40000 tons and 38000 tons respectively. Although the number of policy collection and storage is limited, it has played a certain role in stabilizing the market mentality and strengthening the low price resistance mentality of the breeding end; In addition, due to the "mask incident" in many places in China in March, the supply pressure of pigs was slightly reduced; At the same time, with the continued decline of pig prices, some slaughtering enterprises in Northeast China and other regions are flexible to put frozen products into inventory on bargain hunting, and their enthusiasm to collect pigs has increased, which has played a certain support to the bottom price.
pig breeding shares rose
It is worth noting that, in contrast to the depressed pig market, the stock prices of pig breeding related stocks began to rise since the end of the third quarter of last year, and walked out of the rising market under the background of market adjustment at the end of the year and the beginning of the year. According to the data, as of the closing on April 7, according to the industry classification of Shenwan, in the six months, the share prices of 7 of the 10 pig breeding enterprises rose, and the largest increase in share prices was Leshan Giantstar Farming&Husbandry Corporation Limited(603477) , up 104.40%; Followed by Hunan New Wellful Co.Ltd(600975) , Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) , Tech-Bank Food Co.Ltd(002124) , the share price rose by more than 40%, 57.73%, 47.82% and 42.95% respectively Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) shares rose 4.26%.
In this regard, Xu Xueping said, "this is related to the market's expectation that the pig cycle will reverse in the near future. With the alleviation of the contradiction of pig overcapacity, pig breeding enterprises are expected to gradually get out of the loss dilemma and promote some capital bottom reading and layout of high-quality breeding enterprises. Therefore, there has been a strong rebound in the pig breeding sector."
According to Mysteel's monitoring, by the end of February 2022, the number of fertile sows had decreased to 42.68 million after 8 months of de production, a cumulative decrease of 2.96 million over the high point, a decrease of 6.49%. By the end of February, the production capacity had decreased to 104% of the normal stock, and the pig production capacity had entered the green range from obvious surplus.
However, there are still differences on the specific inflection point time of the pig cycle. Xu Xueping believes that the reversal of pig cycle depends on supply and demand. The pressure on the supply side is expected to be reduced in the second and third quarters, and there is a certain possibility of a rebound at the bottom of pig prices, but pig demand is in the off-season, so it is difficult to have a substantive reversal. It is expected that after October, with the gradual improvement of downstream demand, the pig market may have a phased inflection point.
Zhu danpeng, senior researcher of China Brand Research Institute and food industry analyst, told the Securities Daily: "on the whole, with the accuracy, scientization and rationalization of the stock, the pig price is expected to show a steady and slightly rising development trend in the second half of the year."
