Daily theme strategy discussion, summarize the views of the eight securities companies, reveal the current situation of the industry, observe the market trend, and feel the pulse of A-Shares for you in advance.
Guosen Securities Co.Ltd(002736) : focus on the investment direction of trichlorosilane, potassium fertilizer, sweetener and phosphorus chemical industry
We are firmly optimistic that benefiting from the major transformation and upgrading of China's energy structure, China's chemical industry is in an important period of strategic opportunities, and the upstream material field of new energy has ushered in major development opportunities. We are still optimistic about the sustained high momentum of EVA, iron phosphate lithium iron phosphate, industrial silicon trichlorosilane polycrystalline silicon, PVDF and other new energy chemical products this year. We suggest paying attention to the rebound opportunities of relevant new energy chemical material targets.
Recently, the downstream of the potash fertilizer market just needs to pick up. After the signing of the large contract, the State Reserve reopened the auction, and the supply shortage has eased. It is expected that the price of potassium chloride will rise steadily in the short term. At the same time, due to the continuous improvement of the concept of sugar substitutes, the penetration rate of sweeteners represented by sucralose in the field of food and beverage will continue to increase in the future. We are optimistic about the medium and long-term business cycle of sweeteners. The upstream and downstream of the phosphorus chemical industry chain continue to resonate strongly, the short-term spring ploughing will be fully opened, and the demand will develop well. The explosion of demand for lithium iron phosphate will drive the prosperity of "phosphate rock yellow phosphorus phosphate iron phosphate". Looking forward to April 2022, we focus on the investment direction of trichlorosilane, potassium fertilizer, sweetener and phosphorus chemical industry.
Western Securities Co.Ltd(002673) : highlight the resource attribute of medium and long-term phosphorus chemical industry, reform the supply side, and continuously optimize the industrial competition pattern
In the medium and long term, the resource attribute of phosphorus chemical industry is prominent, and the supply side reform continues to optimize the industry competition pattern. At present, China's phosphorus ore resources are facing the pressure of shortage. At the same time, with the joint restrictions of various supply side control measures such as carbon neutralization, dual control of energy consumption and capacity indicators, we will see that some enterprises with leading resource endowment layout will show stronger competitiveness.
While the industry profits are more inclined to the upstream, the competition pattern of the industry will also be continuously optimized. At present, the leading enterprises of phosphorus chemical industry have basically completed the integration of upstream resources, improved the integration of industrial chain, and have the advantages of sufficient resources, cost, energy consumption indicators and so on.
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Guosheng Securities: phosphorus chemical industry ushers in a strong business cycle of agrochemical industry under the global energy transformation
Under the global energy transformation, phosphorus chemical industry has ushered in a strong business cycle of agrochemical industry. We believe that behind the current round of price increases from energy to Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) and phosphate fertilizer is the cost paid under the global energy transformation. The uncertainty of the situation in Russia and Ukraine may lead to supply tension lasting longer. We expect the prices of phosphate fertilizer and phosphate products to remain high for a long time. After the supply side reform in the past few years, the supply and demand of phosphate rock in China has been in a tight balance. In February 2022, the guidance on safe production in non coal mines was issued, resulting in the continuous clearing of some small phosphate rock production capacity, further aggravating the tension between phosphate rock supply and demand. We judge that the price of phosphate rock in China will continue to rise in the future. The rise of new energy has brought new demand for phosphorus ore, and due to the high quality requirements of iron phosphate and purified phosphoric acid, the demand for "good ore" in the medium and long term will be more intense. At present, the listed phosphorus chemical enterprises have basically completed the integration of upstream resources, and most of them have formed integrated development. They are high-quality assets that can resist inflation.
The new energy industry will rebuild a phosphorus chemical industry in the next 10 years. We believe that new energy is an important opportunity for the transformation and upgrading of phosphorus chemical industry in the next 10 years. The demand explosion of new energy vehicles and energy storage market in 2021 led to a significant increase in the demand for upstream materials such as lithium iron phosphate, PVDF and lithium hexafluorophosphate. Since the second half of 2021, many phosphorus chemical companies have planned large production expansion plans around the field of new energy. According to our calculation, considering the development and utilization of iron phosphate and associated fluorine resources (excluding lithium iron phosphate, PVDF and lithium hexafluorophosphate), the market scale of the whole phosphorus chemical industry will increase by 167.5 billion yuan by 2030, an increase of 117% compared with 2021, which is equivalent to rebuilding a phosphorus chemical industry and bringing important growth opportunities to companies in the industry. Investment suggestions: focus on Guizhou Chanhen Chemical Corporation(002895) , Yunnan Yuntianhua Co.Ltd(600096) , Hubei Xingfa Chemicals Group Co.Ltd(600141) , Hubei Yihua Chemical Industry Co.Ltd(000422) , Sichuan Development Lomon Co.Ltd(002312) , Xinyangfeng Agricultural Technology Co.Ltd(000902) , Chengdu Wintrue Holding Co.Ltd(002539) , Shanghai Zhongyida Co.Ltd(600610) (backdoor of Wengfu group).
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) : European energy supply is in short supply and chemical supply is expected to tighten
Europe's energy consumption is dominated by crude oil and natural gas, which is highly dependent on imports, and Russia is the main importer. Under the influence of geopolitics, the shortage of energy supply in Europe has led to a sharp rise in the prices of local natural gas and crude oil, which has an impact on the cost and production stability of European chemical enterprises. Considering that Europe is an important chemical production place in the world, and there is an expectation of supply tightening for chemical products with high production capacity in Europe, we are optimistic about the price elasticity of related products.
According to the proportion of chemical products in Europe, we recommend the following sectors and targets: 1. Vitamins and amino acids: China's leading enterprises in VA, VE and methionine Zhejiang Nhu Company Ltd(002001) ; 2. Polyurethane sector: focus on the polyurethane faucet Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) , and pay attention to Cangzhou Dahua Co.Ltd(600230) ; 3. Coal chemical industry and light hydrocarbon cracking sector: focus on Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group Co.Ltd(600989) (polyethylene, polypropylene), satellite Chemistry (polyethylene, polypropylene, acrylic acid), Shandong Hualu-Hengsheng Chemical Co.Ltd(600426) (caprolactam, adipic acid, polyol), Luxi Chemical Group Co.Ltd(000830) (PC, caprolactam, PA6, polyol), Inner Mongolia Eerduosi Resources Co.Ltd(600295) (calcium carbide PVC integrated with coal and electricity), and it is suggested to pay attention to Xinjiang Zhongtai Chenical Co.Ltd(002092) ; 4. Soda ash, titanium dioxide and carbon black: soda ash mainly recommends Tangshan Sanyou Chemical Industries Co.Ltd(600409) , and it is suggested to pay attention to double ring technology and Shandong Haihua Co.Ltd(000822) ; Key recommendations for titanium dioxide Lb Group Co.Ltd(002601) ; Carbon black is recommended Jiangxi Black Cat Carbon Black Inc.Ltd(002068) .
Wanlian Securities: in the short term, the high prospect of phosphate fertilizer is expected to continue to recommend three main investment lines
Considering that during the peak season of China's phosphate fertilizer demand, production enterprises need to give priority to meeting domestic demand, and the current phosphate fertilizer export legal inspection is relatively strict, it is expected that the sharp rise in overseas phosphate fertilizer prices will be limited to the performance of China's phosphate fertilizer enterprises in the first quarter.
In the second quarter, with the end of the peak demand season in China, the export of phosphate fertilizer is expected to be relaxed, and the export orders of phosphate fertilizer enterprises are expected to improve month on month. On the whole, domestic demand and external demand resonate and superimpose cost support, and the high prospect of phosphate fertilizer is expected to continue in the short term. It is suggested to pay attention to relevant leading enterprises with cost advantages.
In 2022, we will mainly recommend three main investment lines: 1. Under the background of policy control, production and supply are becoming more stringent, and at the same time, the demand side is still supportive in various sub sectors, such as pesticides, fertilizers and refrigerants; 2. Resource based chemical industry segments that improve valuation, such as phosphorus chemical industry; 3. High value-added new materials with significant domestic substitution trend, such as semiconductor materials and display materials, which are key planning during the 14th Five Year Plan period.
Zhongtai Securities Co.Ltd(600918) : European gas shortage! Chemical production capacity may be limited, and a new round of price rise boom is coming
The significant reduction in the supply of natural gas will limit the chemical production capacity in Europe, and the production of key basic chemicals and downstream products will be reduced. In the processing industry, the production of many important daily necessities will have to be reduced, and all downstream customers will be affected. For example, Europe is the second largest region of TDI and MDI global production capacity, accounting for 24% and 27% of the global production capacity respectively, second only to China. China's TDI and MDI production capacity account for more than 40% of the world. If the production of TDI and MDI in Europe is limited, the vast majority of global demand may need Chinese supply, which may trigger a new round of price rise boom at that time.
China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) : the cost increase of overseas high-cost chemicals drives the industry cost curve to steepen
The shortage of overseas natural gas supply continues to affect China's leading enterprises. At present, the supply of overseas natural gas is tight and the price continues to rise. In the early stage, Huntsman and BASF issued a notice that due to the sharp rise in the price of natural gas, the price of relevant products will be adjusted. BASF said this week that if the current supply of natural gas is reduced to less than half of the demand, it will lead to the complete cessation of the operation of Ludwigshafen base. With the sharp rise in the cost of overseas chemical products, the cost of chemical products is expected to form a balance between supply and demand; On the other hand, if some European chemical enterprises stop production due to natural gas shortage, it may lead to tight supply of chemicals and rising prices. Overall, the profitability of China's low-cost leading enterprises is expected to increase. Suggestions: MDI, TDI, vitamins, etc.
China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) : the price of iron phosphate may continue to rise, and the chemical enterprises taking the lead in production are expected to benefit
The price of iron phosphate is expected to continue to rise, and the chemical enterprises that take the lead in putting into operation are expected to benefit. According to China National Chemical Engineering Co.Ltd(601117) and physical power industry association, the output of lithium iron phosphate in February was 55200 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 171%. With the development of new energy vehicle industry and the continuous production of new capacity of lithium iron phosphate, we expect the output of lithium iron phosphate to continue to grow rapidly. In February, China's output of iron phosphate was 48800 tons. At present, the operating rate of iron phosphate enterprises is at a high level. Enterprises basically have no excess inventory, and the overall supply is tight. With the continuous growth of demand for lithium iron phosphate and the less investment of new capacity of iron phosphate in the short term, we expect the supply of iron phosphate to continue to be tight. At present, the price of iron phosphate is at a high level of 24000 yuan / ton. We expect that 50000 tons / year of iron phosphate in Xinyangfeng Agricultural Technology Co.Ltd(000902) phase I is expected to be put into trial production at the end of the month, Guizhou Chanhen Chemical Corporation(002895) iron phosphate will be put into trial production in the middle of this year, and 100000 tons / year of Yunnan Yuntianhua Co.Ltd(600096) phase I will be put into trial production in the third quarter of this year. The chemical enterprises that take the lead in putting into operation of iron phosphate are expected to benefit.
