On April 7, a message that “China’s total infrastructure investment will reach US $2.3 trillion (about 14.8 trillion yuan)” spread in the market.
Affected by this news, the large infrastructure sector rose in the morning of the 8th.
In addition to dajijian, the competition between long and short was fierce in the morning of August 8. The gem index fell by more than 1% at most, and then rose by more than 1% driven by Shenzhen Mindray Bio-Medical Electronics Co.Ltd(300760) , Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) , Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) and then fell again.
As of midday closing, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.06% in midday trading, and the gem index fell slightly by 0.09 points. The net sales of northbound funds exceeded 1.3 billion yuan.
a rumor
15 trillion large infrastructure sectors soared collectively
In the morning of April 8, the large infrastructure sector soared collectively. As of press time, the western large infrastructure rose by more than 3%, and the central enterprise index of large infrastructure rose by 2.94%.
In terms of individual stocks, Xinjiang Beixin Road & Bridge Group Co.Ltd(002307) opened high and closed the trading limit. As of the press release of 7.04 yuan, all the trading limits have been raised for three trading days this week.
In addition, Xinjiang Communications Construction Group Co.Ltd(002941) also rose by the limit, Xinjiang Qingsong Building Materials And Chemicals(Group)Co.Ltd(600425) , Tibet Tianlu Co.Ltd(600326) followed.
On April 7, a message that “China’s total infrastructure investment will reach US $2.3 trillion (about 14.8 trillion yuan)” spread in the market. Many investors mistakenly believe that this means that when it is difficult for real estate investment to improve, infrastructure investment will carry the banner of steady growth this year. It does not even rule out the situation that the annual growth rate of infrastructure investment is as high as more than 50% under the 2009 4 trillion stimulus plan.
Although soon, analysts at Guosheng Securities pointed out that the original text actually confused a basic concept, that is, by simply summing up the investment list of major projects displayed all over the country in early 2022, we came to the conclusion that the total infrastructure investment in 2022 will reach 14.8 trillion yuan.
In fact, the release of the investment list of such major projects is a routine action at the beginning of the year. Previous relevant statistics showed that as of February 16, many provinces and cities had released the investment list of major projects in 2022, with a total investment of at least 25 trillion yuan.
He Yaxuan, an analyst at Guosheng securities, said that the total number of projects to be promoted each year is at least 10-20 trillion, but many projects may not be able to land that year, so this data is not strong guidance for the completion of infrastructure investment that year.
“relay loan” returns to the Jianghu
real estate sector rises again
On the 7th, the real estate sector, which rose sharply in a row, was divided, and many high-level stocks retreated one after another. Just when market participants thought that the rise of the real estate sector was coming to an end, the Guangzhou property market released a major positive on the 7th.
On the 7th, according to the 21st Century Business Herald, some banks in Guangzhou have started the “relay loan” again. It is understood that the age of the main lender of “relay loan” needs to be between 18 and 65. According to the age of the children, the longest loan is 30 years, and the running water of parents and children meets more than twice the monthly supply, with the minimum of 5.4% for the first set and 5.6% for the second set.
Relay loan, as the name suggests, parents as the main borrower and children together bear the responsibility of repayment, so as to extend the original repayment cycle, which can not only improve the repayment guarantee, but also reduce the pressure on home buyers.
The return of “relay loan” will undoubtedly release benefits to the real estate industry that is being deregulated again. On the morning of August 8, the real estate sector rose again. As of noon closing, China Wuyi Co.Ltd(000797) Liulian board, Sichuan Languang Development Co.Ltd(600466) , Everbright Jiabao Co.Ltd(600622) , Tianjin Tianbao Infrastructure Co.Ltd(000965) , etc. all rose by the limit.
approaching midday, it is reported that Guangzhou relay loan has been urgently stopped. However, some banks in Guangzhou have reduced the interest rate of the first house to the LPR benchmark. HSBC said that at present, the first house in Guangzhou can be adjusted to the lowest LPR, that is, 4.6%, and the lowest loan interest rate for the second house is LPR + 60BP, that is, 5.2%
phosphorus chemical batch limit
or become a new hot spot in the market
In the morning of August 8, phosphorus chemical industry became the most dazzling star in the market. So far, the overall rise has exceeded 8%.
Kunming Chuan Jin Nuo Chemical Co.Ltd(300505) 20cm and Sichuan Hongda Co.Ltd(600331) , Hubei Xingfa Chemicals Group Co.Ltd(600141) and others also increased their limits.
Recently, as listed companies related to phosphorus chemical industry successively disclosed the performance forecast of the first quarter, the bright report card gave a boost to the market.
On April 6, Yunnan Yuntianhua Co.Ltd(600096) released the performance forecast. According to the announcement, the net profit in the first quarter of 2022 is expected to be about 1.64 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 185.18%. According to the previous disclosure, the company realized a net profit of 3.642 billion yuan in 2021, a year-on-year increase of 123877%. This means that Yunnan Yuntianhua Co.Ltd(600096) made a profit equivalent to that of the first half of last year in the first quarter of this year.
The performance of another phosphorus chemical enterprise Hubei Xingfa Chemicals Group Co.Ltd(600141) in the first quarter was also quite bright. According to the performance forecast disclosed by the company, in the first quarter of 2022, the company achieved a net profit of 1.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 379.35%. In the past year of 2021, the company achieved a net profit of 4.247 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 583.58%. The net profit in the first quarter of this year is equivalent to 40% of that of last year.
It is understood that the outbreak of lithium iron phosphate battery industry has led to a sharp rise in the price of phosphate rock in short supply, and at present, this trend is still continuing.
It is worth noting that the phosphorus chemical industry index has risen for four consecutive trading days. Market participants believe that this sector is expected to become a new hot spot in the market.
securities analyst reminder:
reduce position and be cautious
Haitong Securities Company Limited(600837) said that the short-term long short divergence is expected to further intensify operation, we should pay attention to the risk of further correction of the index, reduce the position, be cautious and wait for the opportunity of low absorption at the same time, under the background of European and American sanctions against Russia and global commodity shortage, the agricultural sector and weekly products deserve continuous attention.
Guosheng Securities pointed out that although the current index has a downward trend again, its structure still fluctuates inside the box. The adjustment of the index is more for brewing greater upward momentum, and generally speaking, the downward space is limited therefore, we can choose infrastructure, building materials, steel and other sectors for layout in combination with the starting point of the national “stable growth” policy.
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) believes that at the current time, investment opportunities in the chemical industry can focus on two main lines: high energy prices and the mismatch between supply and demand of agricultural materials. Under high energy prices, 1) the value of coal chemical industry leaders optimistic about energy self-sufficiency has been revalued, with emphasis on Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group Co.Ltd(600989) , Inner Mongolia Eerduosi Resources Co.Ltd(600295) ; 2) The rising cost of overseas chemicals is good for China’s exports. It is suggested to pay attention to overseas chemical products, especially those with high production capacity in Europe, such as vitamins, polyurethane, soda ash and carbon black, and focus on Zhejiang Nhu Company Ltd(002001) , Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) , Tangshan Sanyou Chemical Industries Co.Ltd(600409) , satellite chemistry, Shandong Hualu-Hengsheng Chemical Co.Ltd(600426) , Luxi Chemical Group Co.Ltd(000830) , Lb Group Co.Ltd(002601) , Jiangxi Black Cat Carbon Black Inc.Ltd(002068) .
In terms of supply and demand of agricultural materials, it is expected that the conflict between Russia and Ukraine will significantly affect the global fertilizer supply, and the high Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) price will boost the planting demand, which is optimistic about the global fertilizer price. Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co.Ltd(000792) , Asia-Potash International Investment (Guangzhou) Co.Ltd(000893) and Qingdao East Steel Tower Stock Co.Ltd(002545) , are recommended for potash fertilizer sector; The phosphate fertilizer sector mainly recommends Xinyangfeng Agricultural Technology Co.Ltd(000902) , Hubei Yihua Chemical Industry Co.Ltd(000422) .
Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) pointed out that under the influence of the epidemic, the comparative advantage of prosperity in the field of medical rigid demand is prominent. Since February 2022, the global covid-19 epidemic has remained at a high level. In the pharmaceutical industry, the demand for R & D, serious illness medicine and equipment, hospital construction and other industries is relatively rigid, which has relatively little impact. The performance of the pharmaceutical sector still has horizontal comparative advantages. Some racetracks, such as non covid-19 class II vaccine, CXO and medical equipment, have maintained a high momentum. The demand for elective medical treatment may be delayed in stages, but it will not disappear. It is expected to recover quickly after the impact of the epidemic decreases.
Sinolink Securities Co.Ltd(600109) pointed out that the current round of battery material cost increase is expected to have a certain impact on demand, but the impact is within a controllable range. Both weekly high-frequency data and grassroots research show that the current demand is still relatively strong, basically returning to the level of January or December, especially plug-in and hybrid models. Even for pure electric models with a considerable increase in price, due to consumers’ expectation of subsequent price increase, the terminal demand is still strong, and the waiting cycle is generally 2-3 months.
