Viewpoint: after four consecutive months of recovery, the leading economic indicators fell below the boom and bust line, confirming the judgment of anti pumping we mentioned earlier. In this case, the pressure of economic growth still inhibits the market. Under the support of policy support and monetary easing cycle, the market as a whole is still a process of shock bottoming in the short term, important meetings have released positive signals, and the “policy bottom” has been strengthened again. However, due to internal and external concerns, the market still has the possibility of rising and falling back and stage retreat. It is suggested that the game of oversold rebound should be gradually weakened. Under the control of positions, patiently wait for the next opportunity of low absorption
With the recovery of overseas markets, both Shanghai and Shenzhen markets opened higher today, but after the opening, it fluctuated lower, and there was a diving in the session. However, the index rebounded and turned red after being pulled up by the securities sector and track stocks. On the disk, the building decoration sector led the rise, while the real estate, building materials, basic chemicals and other sectors led the rise, while the media, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, medicine and biology fell.
On the disk of the day, the rise of the infrastructure sector is an important force for the recovery of the index. Recently, a number of institutions released the GDP forecast value of the first quarter. Generally speaking, most institutions predicted the GDP growth rate of the first quarter between 4.7% and 5.4%, with an average forecast value of 5.1%. As an important tool for steady growth, the issuance of new local government bonds, especially special bonds, is accelerating. According to the data of Everbright Securities Company Limited(601788) statistics, in the first quarter of 2022, China issued a total of 1298.1 billion yuan of new special bonds, accounting for 89% of the amount approved in advance (1.46 trillion yuan) and 36% of the annual issuance plan, making it the fastest year in history. The accelerated issuance of government bonds can expand effective investment and boost the stable operation of the economy.
Obviously, steady growth is still the top priority at present, so on the whole, infrastructure and other sectors will benefit. In the current market, it is relatively uncertain and easy to get the favor of funds. In addition, under the influence of the epidemic, the growth pressure is still large. With the convening of important meetings, the expectation of continued policy is also gradually heating up, or it may give a certain boost to the market.
However, it should be pointed out that even if the policy level makes some efforts, the market may not necessarily rise or rise immediately, which requires a process. From the previous situation, especially in terms of monetary policy, the market can only have a basis for recovery after multiple easing. It is often after the conversion from broad money to broad credit, that is, after it really acts on the real economy, the market can have a better response.
Therefore, the “policy bottom” is being strengthened, and the foundation for the overall improvement remains the same, but it may take time for the market to start performing. In this process, we can make strategic allocation as a whole, but we also need to pay attention to the repetition of the market in stages, including the periodic decline after continuous oversold rebound.
Looking back on the previous oversold rebound in the market, we suggest investors to wait for a technical correction before considering entering or configuring. Since this period, the oversold rebound has lasted for many days. At this time, under the concerns of many parties, we believe that the oversold rebound here may come to an end. It is suggested that investors in the previous game can appropriately consider reducing their holdings, control their positions and wait patiently for new opportunities.
