Today (April 8), the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets showed a shock consolidation pattern as a whole. The three major A-share indexes opened slightly higher in the morning, and then fluctuated lower. Although there was a wave of rebound in the index, all the three indexes once turned red, the rebound was limited, and the index failed to continue to rise. Then the gem index plunged again.
In this regard, Central China Securities Co.Ltd(601375) said that the current stock index is more likely to maintain range shock, and it still needs external stimulation to break the market situation in the future. It is expected that the short-term slight consolidation of the Shanghai index is more likely, and the short-term slight shock of the gem is more likely. Investors are advised to pay careful attention to the investment opportunities in engineering infrastructure, finance and cyclical industries in the short term, and continue to pay attention to the investment opportunities of undervalued blue chips in the middle line.
At the same time, Northeast Securities Co.Ltd(000686) said that according to the historical resumption of trading, in the rebound market after the end of the policy, the industries with improved prosperity and oversold were the main lines leading the rise; At present, the direction of prosperity improvement is mainly the industries that have steady growth and benefit from the epidemic and post epidemic repair. The industries that have oversold are mainly the high growth industries suppressed by the decline of profits and the contraction of liquidity.
sector:
I. cement building materials
Tianfeng Securities Co.Ltd(601162) mentioned that the demand side of the whole year is still resilient, 2022q1 or the low point of the industry. Since Q2, with the year-on-year weakening of the impact of coal price + the opening of price rise, the performance may improve quarter by quarter. In the medium and long term, cement has entered a period of downward demand. In the future, the industry will focus on the opportunities brought by the change of the industry's supply side under the objectives of "dual control" and "dual carbon": a) the policy requires that the proportion of benchmark capacity in 2025 will exceed 30%, and the industry's capacity of 2500t / D and below is expected to withdraw one after another in the future, and the total capacity will shrink by more than 8.6%.
B) the cement industry is expected to be included in carbon trading in the future. The transformation of carbon tax + emission reduction will aggravate the cost pressure of small enterprises, highlight the leading competitive advantage, further expand through mergers and acquisitions, enhance the voice, and gradually raise the price center. On the demand side, it is expected that the Q1 infrastructure side will have a good start in 2022, and the bottom of the real estate side will pick up. In the medium and long term, the cement industry as a whole may develop in the trend of "volume reduction and price increase". After being included in carbon trading, it may accelerate the improvement of supply side concentration, and the improvement of leading share is expected to support performance growth. From the perspective of dividend yield and valuation, cement companies have high investment performance price ratio.
Guosheng Securities said that in the short term, due to the impact of epidemic control, demand recovered, cement prices fluctuated, and inventory pressure increased; In the medium term, the stable growth of credit is expected to rise, the issuance speed of special bonds is expected to be further accelerated, and the rising momentum of infrastructure chain is expected to be strengthened. Under the structural wide credit, the cement demand is expected to start the stabilization and recovery cycle, which will support the cement price center in the medium term to be higher than that in the same period of previous years. At present, the relative valuations of sector price book ratio and P / E ratio are still at a historically low level, and the industry valuation is also expected to be repaired. Recommend Huaxin Cement Co.Ltd(600801) , Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) and Gansu Shangfeng Cement Co.Ltd(000672) with strong performance certainty and bright spots in the extension of medium and long-term industrial chain. The medium and long-term recommendation is expected to benefit from the market integration in Northeast and North China and Tangshan Jidong Cement Co.Ltd(000401) with great business elasticity.
II. Real estate development
Wanlian Securities pointed out that under the macro background of "stable growth", the fundamentals of the current real estate industry continue to bottom, and the marginal improvement policy continues. It is expected that there are still many favorable policies to be expected in the follow-up, and continue to be optimistic about the market performance of the real estate sector. It is suggested to pay attention to (1) property management companies with good fundamental performance; (2) High quality real estate enterprises with financial stability and background of central enterprises / state-owned enterprises; (3) Real estate enterprises with high-quality holding properties or transformation enterprises, or effectively form a virtuous capital cycle of "development +".
Shenyin Wanguo Securities mentioned that real estate is still the pillar industry of China's national economy, and the contribution of the industry itself and the industrial chain to GDP accounts for nearly 30%. However, at present, under the multiple regulation and financial difficulties, the impact on the economy may gradually enter the low drag stage. In view of the recent frequent voices of the government emphasizing stabilizing the economy, steady growth and preventing and controlling financial risks, while stabilizing the economy urgently needs to stabilize the real estate, it is expected that the policy repair at both ends of supply and demand of the real estate industry is expected to accelerate, and will promote the optimization of the industry pattern and further enhance the concentration, and the high-quality real estate enterprises are expected to usher in both quantity and quality.
BOC International Securities said that it was still a good allocation window period at the turn of the first and second quarters, and the expectation of policy improvement was still strengthened. It is suggested to continue to pay attention to the opportunities of the real estate sector. We suggest paying attention to four main lines: 1) leading real estate enterprises with low credit risk, smooth financing channels and high security: Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , Gemdale Corporation(600383) , China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) , China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) , Longhu group and China Resources Land.
2) regional central state-owned enterprises or regional leading private enterprises with high financial report security and stable cash flow: China Construction Development International, Yuexiu real estate, Midea real estate, Hangzhou Binjiang Real Estate Group Co.Ltd(002244) .
3) under the influence of macro and industrial policies such as interest rate reduction, elastic real estate enterprises with large marginal income: Xuhui holding group, Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) , Jinke Property Group Co.Ltd(000656) .
4) the real estate post cycle property sector with strong income determination and accelerated concentration, as well as the recent credit risk mitigation of related real estate enterprises and elastic reversal: Country Garden service, Xuhui Yongsheng life, poly property, Zhonghai property and xinchengyue service.
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