In April, changes in the internal and external environment made the photovoltaic industry chain face short-term challenges. On the one hand, the price of silicon material has been rising for 12 consecutive weeks; On the other hand, the epidemic has had a certain impact on the supply chain. Silicon wafers are in short supply again, and the price continues to rise this weekChina’s polysilicon price trend since the 21st century
According to the data released by the silicon industry branch of China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association (hereinafter referred to as the silicon industry branch), as of the weekly quotation on April 6, the price range of China’s single crystal re feeding was 2490 Jc Finance & Tax Interconnect Holdings Ltd(002530) 00 yuan / ton, and the average transaction price rose to 250700 yuan / ton, with a weekly increase of 0.36%; The price range of single crystal compact is between 247000 and 251000 yuan / ton, and the average transaction price rises to 248400 yuan / ton, with a weekly increase of 0.36%.
In terms of silicon material output, polysilicon production capacity continued to release in the first quarter. China’s polysilicon output was 159000 tons, the import volume in the same period was expected to be 22000 tons, and China’s total silicon material supply was about 181000 tons. Among them, China’s output reached 54600 tons in March, an increase of 4.4% month on month.
The 21st Century Business Herald reporter noted that the new silicon supply in the industry in the first quarter of this year mainly includes: Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) Leshan phase II 50000 tons of capacity, Baoshan phase I 50000 tons of high-purity crystalline silicon project in the stage of capacity climbing, and Xinjiang Daqo New Energy Co.Ltd(688303) 35000 tons of capacity.
Southwest Securities Co.Ltd(600369) believes that in the short term, the data rate of China’s photovoltaic industry in the first quarter is probably higher than expected. With the continuous release of new silicon production capacity, the supply side is gradually abundant, which is expected to drive the growth of downstream demand.
In terms of price trend, although the silicon material price continues to rise slightly, the increase narrowed slightly.
In addition to the relatively high operating rates of the existing capacity and new capacity of downstream silicon wafers, the maintenance of Chinese and foreign silicon material enterprises in the same period, as well as the obstruction of imported silicon material transportation due to the epidemic, lead to the relative shortage of silicon material supply.
Huachuangxin believes that in 2022, the price of silicon material showed a trend of high before and low after. The price continued in the second and third quarters and fell in the fourth quarter.
With the release of new production capacity from silicon material manufacturers such as Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) , Asian silicon industry, etc., it is estimated that China’s silicon material output will reach 180000 tons in the second quarter and 200000 tons in the third quarter. The new supply of the industry is still mainly from Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) , Xinte energy and poly GCL energy sources.
The fourth quarter is regarded as a turning point for more centralized release of production capacity. It is expected that China’s output will reach 250000 tons, and the new supply of the industry mainly comes from enterprises such as Dongfang hope and Qinghai Lihao. However, Huachuang Dianxin also pointed out that it is difficult to grasp the certainty of silicon material capacity release at this stage.
With the simultaneous rise of volume and price, the “bumper harvest” of silicon material enterprises has become an established fact: in 2021, four silicon material leading enterprises Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) , Xinjiang Daqo New Energy Co.Ltd(688303) , Xinte energy and poly GCL returned in full, with a cumulative net profit attributable to the parent company of 23.966 billion yuan.
In addition, Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) and Tbea Co.Ltd(600089) took the lead in announcing the expected performance in the first quarter of this year Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) it is estimated that the net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company in the first quarter will be 4.9 billion yuan to 5.2 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 478% to 514% Tbea Co.Ltd(600089) is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies of 2.8 billion yuan to 3.2 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 32% to 56%.
However, the silicon wafer link, which has been affecting the price trend of silicon materials, once again fell short of demand in April, and the price rose continuously.
This week, the average transaction prices of M6, M10 and G12 monocrystalline silicon wafers increased to 5.6 yuan / piece, 6.73 yuan / piece and 9.05 yuan / piece respectively, with a week-on-week increase of 1.45%, 0.45% and 2.14%.
At the same time, the leading enterprise Tianjin Zhonghuan Semiconductor Co.Ltd(002129) announced the third silicon wafer price adjustment this year on April 2, with a maximum increase of 2.25% Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) previously, it also officially announced the price increase again, which is the fifth time this year that it has officially announced an increase in the price of monocrystalline silicon.
On the one hand, due to the impact of this round of epidemic, the production capacity has decreased.
According to the information of the silicon branch, four specialized silicon wafer enterprises in Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai stopped production, two enterprises stopped crystal pulling, one enterprise resumed production recently, and one enterprise’s slicing link was affected and stagnated. The silicon branch predicts that silicon wafer production is expected to decrease by about 1 to 2gw in April.
On the other hand, the uncertainty brought by the review of photovoltaic products launched by overseas countries makes downstream enterprises hoard goods cautiously.
For the current round of silicon wafer price increase, the battery factory does not accept the current round of price increase. The silicon industry branch pointed out that as of this week, the vast majority of silicon wafer enterprises are not willing to increase the prices of M6 and M10 at will. The willingness of subsequent companies to follow depends on whether specialized silicon wafer enterprises can resume production in the short term.
According to the analysis of the silicon industry branch, overseas demand will become the focus of attention in April. The stimulation of Indian tariff policy ends. The review to be launched by the US Department of Commerce may have an impact on the export of components in Southeast Asia. At the same time, the second phase of China’s large base project has operated smoothly, and the demand side has weakened on the whole.
This also means that the “inflection point” of the supply-demand relationship of silicon wafer will appear. The supply gap caused by the epidemic may weaken the supply at the same time, and the silicon chip end may turn to a tight balance between supply and demand.
